Politically and economically the war in Ukraine is becoming less sustainable, with no sign that pouring more arms in is bringing Ukraine any closer to winning and every sign that it is losing. However, the mantra of western politicians remains that “Ukraine must win”. This has led to talk of dangerous escalation, like sending more advanced weaponry and NATO committing boots on the ground (more than the small number it already has). Desperation in Kiev and among Ukraine’s western backers is making the situation more volatile. Competing interests with the US and within Europe are complicating matters further and making a negotiated end to the war seem distant.