In this latest OIES podcast Michal Meidan talks to Henry Sanderson about his paper: "China and Rare Earth Supply Chains: Export Controls, Dual-Use Governance and UK Exposure". Henry and Michal explore how China built unprecedented control over the rare earths value chain, how Beijing is now weaponising its dominance through targeted export controls on key elements and magnets, and what this means for defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. They then talk about the UK's specific exposure and the intelligence advantages China gains from its export licensing regime. Finally, they discuss de-risking in the West, the policy steps needed—from strategic stockpiles to supporting alternative suppliers—in order to rebuild resilience in rare earth supply chains. The paper was published by RUSI, part of a joint research programme between RUSI and OIES.

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, Anders Hove talks to James Henderson about his latest paper on Rosatom and its role as a tool of Russian foreign policy. After a brief overview of Rosatom's role as a major nuclear power company and its diversification into new businesses the discussion moves on to the importance of nuclear energy in a Russian domestic context, with its share of power generation targeted to rise to 25% over the next two decades. The conversation then moves to discuss the company's export business and the numerous countries where it has built and is building nuclear power plants. The importance of the company's offering across the nuclear value chain, including financial support, is analysed, and its emergence as a leader in SMR technology is seen as an important growth opportunity. This is especially the case in the Global South, where numerous MoUs have been signed in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia, many since the start of the war in Ukraine. The podcast concludes with an assessment of Rosatom's role as a source of overseas influence for the Kremlin, especially in light of the decline in importance of Gazprom.

In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh and Paul Horsnell discuss the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), its implications for oil markets, and the key uncertainties surrounding its implementation. They discuss several issues including:

• Did the oil market react largely as expected to the disruption, and what key lessons can we draw from how the market adjusted to such a large supply shock?
• To what extent did concerns about rapidly depleting oil stocks drive the US to pursue the MOU?
• Is the global stock problem now behind us, or could inventories continue to draw despite the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz?
• Can the ceasefire be sustained for instance if the negotiations on thorny issues such as the nuclear file or Iran imposing tolls on transit don't make much progress within the next 60 days?
• In the likely case of protracted negotiations, is the MOU in its current format sufficient to support a return of oil flows through the Strait to pre-war levels, or has increased volatility in Hormuz transit become a permanent feature of the market?
• Under the current conditions, will Gulf producers restart their fields and how quickly can they restore their production to pre-war levels?
• Why are forecasts for the 2027 oil market diverging so widely, and which assumptions are driving the differences in outlook?
• What key indicators and developments to look out over the coming months that could materially alter the oil market outlook?

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about their paper on the outlook for LNG supply and its impact on European storage in the light of a potential ceasefire in the Gulf. The podcast analyses the impact of the lass of LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE and the compensating measures that have been seen in the global gas market. These have included alternative LNG production, increases in piped gas supply to Europe and adjustments in demand from Asian and European customers. However, the overarching conclusion is that the loss of supply availability is likely to lead to lower gas in European storage ahead of winter and a consequent increase in gas prices and price volatility. The announcement of a likely ceasefire in the hostilities in the Gulf is then discussed in terms of the timing of a return of LNG supply and the impact on EU storage, with an overall conclusion that even in a best case scenario it will take at least two months to restore normality, which may be too late to significantly impact storage levels ahead of the winter period.

In this latest OIES podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Neil Fleming, Global Head of Editorial at Argus, and Aldric Chew, Senior Editor, Asia-Pacific Oil Products at Argus Media, about how the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has been impacting refining runs and refined products markets based on their contribution to the latest issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, "Beyond crude: the profound effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on oil products markets". They address few questions including:

• Why have refined products markets been more severely affected by the Hormuz disruption than crude oil markets?
• What have been the key drivers of stress in products markets, and which fuels have been most impacted?
• How have government interventions influenced market outcomes, and have they been effective in protecting consumers?
• How have Asian refiners adapted to the loss of Gulf crude supplies, and what challenges have they faced in replacing those barrels?
• What have been the broader consequences of Asian refinery run cuts for regional and global products markets?
• Has increased reliance on imported products been a successful response for Asian economies, and how sustainable is this strategy over time?
• How has the Hormuz crisis changed the way policymakers and industry participants think about energy security?
• Why is there a growing case for developing independent Middle East Gulf refined products benchmarks?
• If disruptions persist for several more months, what mechanisms will drive market adjustment, and which regions are likely to bear the greatest burden?

In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou engages in a discussion with Ahmad Faruqui, an economist and one of the lead architects of California's experiment with dynamic pricing about his latest paper titled "Some Controversies in the Application of Marginal Cost Pricing to Accelerate Electrification: A Case Study in Rate-Making in California" which was part of the recent Oxford Energy Forum on Electricity Prices and the Energy Transition: Economic Efficiency, Social Equity, and Climate Alignment. We start the discussion with the advancements in California's energy transition and the challenges it faces, including high electricity prices and the effects on electrification. We dive into retail tariffs, distinguish between average and marginal costs, and examine the cross-subsidies between consumers in both cases. We analyse how AI can facilitate dynamic pricing and enable demand-side flexibility. We conclude the discussion with the necessary political, regulatory, and technological steps to implement marginal cost pricing on a wide scale.

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Patrick Heather about the impact that the changing flows of gas in Europe are having on hub prices across the region. The discussion is based on a recent OIES Insight and first considers how the reduction of Russian gas flows to Europe and the corresponding increase in imported LNG has impacted the direction of gas flows across the continent. We consider the impact on various TSOs, who have seen sharp changes in the throughput of their systems, and conclude that the difference is most market in Central and Eastern Europe, which have now effectively become destination markets rather than transit countries. We then consider the price impact of this, reviewing the changes in transit charges that have been introduced as a result of the variation in volumes. We discuss the new "ladder of prices" that is emerging in different countries as the cost of delivering LNG to the centre of Europe is now effectively being charged on a TTF-plus basis.

In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Harry Tchilinguirian about how the prolonged disruption of crude oil and refined products flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has been shaping the physical and financial layers of oil markets, benchmarks, and policy responses to the supply shock. They address few questions including:

• How significant is the current oil market shock in historical perspective, and what long-term impacts could it have on the market?
• Why have oil prices not risen more sharply despite the scale of the recent disruptions?
• What does the relationship between Dated Brent, Brent futures, and physical market premiums reveal about current market conditions?
• What factors are driving the sharp decline in Brent futures open interest, and what does this indicate about the trading environment?
• How are shifting refinery demand patterns and changing crude trade flows, particularly toward US crude, reshaping global oil markets and relationships between oil benchmarks?
• Will the back end of the oil price curve move higher heading into 2027, and what factors could drive that shift?
• What are the main factors shaping the oil market outlook for 2027, and where do views and expectations diverge the most?

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honore about the latest Gas Quarterly and the market data hat it provides. Using data to the end of April, we discuss the shifts in prices that we have seen since the start of the war in Iran and consider what the impact might be if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer. We look in details at flows of gas to Europe and examine the impact of higher prices on demand in the industrial, power generation and residential & commercial sectors. We then discuss the reasons why gas prices have not risen even higher in the short term, and look at the new LNG flows that are emerging to at least partially offset the loss of volumes from the Gulf. Finally, we consider the supply and demand balance for global gas into 2027 and debate whether the refill of storage in Europe could become a major issue over the next few months.

In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin and Holger Rogner about their latest paper on the future of nuclear energy, that was co-authored with Robert Budnitz and Charles McCombie. The discussion covers the global outlook for nuclear energy, which has shifted significantly in the last few years from predominantly unfavourable or dismissive views to strongly favourable and optimistic perspectives, in countries all around the world, both developed and developing. This shift is reflected in the growing support for the declaration to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, first endorsed by 21 countries at COP28, and since expanded to include 38 countries. The podcast then looks at a number of important challenges that could delay or hinder nuclear energy's contribution to overall energy and security goals as well as global climate goals. These include economic competitiveness, supply-chain readiness, fuel cycle and waste management issues, regulatory and institutional capacity, and the need to maintain strong safety, security, and safeguards frameworks. These challenges are especially important as new technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and other advanced reactors are deployed. The podcast then examines the major economic, institutional, and technical factors that will shape the future deployment of nuclear power. It reviews the current status of nuclear technologies and programmes, identifies key issues that may influence the pace and scale of nuclear expansion, and highlights areas where further analysis could support policy and investment decisions.