Recently I was asked to participate in a speaker series event at Thammasat University (Bangkok, Thailand) on the Ukraine War and the Future of NATO. I was joined by fellow Thammasat faculty member, Brian Robinson of the Economics department, and while I had anticipated some disagreement, my sense is that on many of the more substantive matters we were generally in broad agreement.

Brian opens his discussion focusing primarily on Russian performance on the battlefield and why they (in his view) performed so poorly, relative to prevailing expectations in the months following February, 2022.

My own discussion focuses less on the causes of the conflict (my sense is that if you don’t think Russia was provoked you probably have your mind made up at this point, see my references below) and more on how it is likely to end and what a sensible policy moving forward might look like.

I frame my discussion more generally within the context of what a world systems approach can tell us about the contemporary world historical conjuncture through the lens of this conflict, Trump 2.0, and waning US hegemony. I use three questions to focus my discussion:

* How is the Ukraine war likely to end?

* What is the justification for NATO in a post-Cold War era?

* What are the prospects for a new global security architecture?

George Galloway said in a recent episode of his MOATS podcast that the Ukraine conflict is likely to be the defining conflict of the next 50-100 years. I’m not so sure he’s wrong. I think there is a broad sense that the world is clamouring for a global reset, the kind that we got after both WWI and WWII (the latter set of reforms having learned from much of the follies of the first). The question it seems to me is whether or not we can achieve the next global reset without having to go through another world war.

If we can’t resolve this, it seems to me there is a not insignificant possiblitlity that we are already on the glide path to the most catastrophic of outcomes. And the very fact that we are left with Trump at the helm, that he is somehow both our best and worst chance at avoiding nulcear holocaust, really should tell us something about the perverse character of the capitalist world system in the 21st century.

REFERENCES

Beebe, G., & Lieven, A. (2024). The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine. Quincey Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Evans, A. et al. (2025, February 24). Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. Institute for Study of War.

Horton, S. (2024). Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War With Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Libertarian Institute.

Ishchenko, V. (2024). Towards the Abyss: Ukraine from Maidan to War. London: Verso.

Jeffrey Sachs EU Parliament Speech Shakes Europe and Middle East. (2025, February 23). YouTube.

Kennan, G. (1997, February 05). A Fateful Error. New York Times.

Moyn, S. (2023). Liberalism Against Itself. Yale University Press.

Pancevski, B. (2024, September 17). Toll of Dead and Injured Hovers Near One Million in Ukraine War. Wall Street Journal.

Prashad, V. (2025, January 16). All Wars End in Negotiations. So Will the War in Ukraine. Tricontinental Institute for Social Research.

Roberts, M. (2025, February 24). Russia-Ukraine war: three years on. The Next Recession.

Stanley, M. (2025, February 24). Ukraine War at 3: The victory we demanded and the attrition we got. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Troianovski, A., Entous, A., & Schwirtz, M. (2024, June 15). Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking. New York Times.

CREDITS

Cover Photo: Saul Loeb, AFP

Intro music: ‘Double Trouble’ by Otis Rush, John Mayall & the Bluesbreakers

Intermission & Outro music: ‘Jumping at Shadows’ by Peter Green’s Fleetwood Mac

Recently I had the unique opportunity to sit down with Vijay Prashad, distinguished historian, author, journalist, political commentator, and social theorist. In addition to his many awards and accomplishments, Vijay is the executive-director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, editor of LeftWord Books, and a senior non-resident fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.

Our conversation ran the gamut from the decline of the Western-led world order, China’s position in the contemporary world system, how to make sense of the role of the BRICS countries, and the political possibilities emerging from the current turbulence in the global economy.

We discussed China’s long-term strategy of economic modernization—successfully advancing productive forces while at the same time preventing domestic capitalists from consolidating (“congealing”) into a political class powerful enough to hijack China’s political horizons. Unlike in Western economies, where regulatory capture has tended to reinforce capitalist dominance over the state, China’s model has sought to maintain political dominance over capital, while simultaneously benefiting from the its productive capacity. Vijay also explains why he rejects the commonly used phrase ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’, given its replicability in developing contexts far beyond China (culture and history are important, in other words, but not determinitive).

On the question of BRICS, we discuss the grouping as a platform for South-South trade, as well as a broader attempt to rebalance the geography of global commerce. By no means constituting a socialist bloc, Prashad argues that BRICS does present a challenge to U.S.-led financial hegemony—pushing for greater Global South representation in international forums, expanding trade outside the dollar system, and navigating the impact of declining American demand on export-oriented economies.

Towards the end of our conversation, we discuss the imperial decadence of the Western establishment, the increasing militarization of NATO states, and the rise of new political movements in the Global South. From Senegal to Sri Lanka, we are witnessing a shift—movements that are no longer content with mere resistance but are willing to contest both state and imperial power directly. This “churning,” as Vijay puts it, is producing unexpected ricochet effects, with new governments emerging in former French colonies and beyond. A bourgeoning global popular appears to be strengthening and diversifying … the question remains as to how it will balance national interests with broader anti-imperialist solidarity.

It’s an incredible, whirlwind of a conversation, essential listening for anyone looking to make sense of the current historical conjuncture.

If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share! Your support helps bring these critical conversations to a wider audience.

Works Referenced

Bond, P. (2024, January 10). US imperial dominance, BRICS sub-imperialism and unequal ecological exchange. CADTM.

Opoku, K., Bertoldi, M., Veneziale, D., & Prashad, V. (2023). Eight Contradictions in the Imperialist “Rules-Based Order.” Tricontinental.

Stevenson, T. (2023). Someone Else’s Empire: British Illusions and American Hegemony. Verso.

Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. (2024). Hyper-Imperialism: A Dangerous and Decadent New Stage.

Music & Photo Credits

Intro Music: Infrared by Hyperdrive Sound | Album: Radiation Funk (2025)Outro Music: Solar by Hyperdrive Sound | Album: Radiation Funk (2025)Cover Pohto: La Tinta (2025)

The main piece discussed in this episode comes from Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, titled ‘Is the Reign of the Dollar Coming to an End?’ and authored by the brilliant and prolific Vijay Prashad.

Supplementary sources include the ‘Milestone Pact’ published by the US General Accounting Office (1979), as well as some background on the emergent mBridge multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

Also referenced is a related piece from Ledger Insights, as well as a series of articles from the latest issue of Wenhua Zongheng: A Journal of Contemporary Chinese Thought (文化纵横), a collaboration between Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research and Dongsheng (Eastern Voices).

The first piece covered in this episode ‘IKEA’s Genius Plan: Pay Workers More to Keep Them’ comes to us from David Moscorp, writing at Jacobin. The piece discusses the novel idea of paying workers decent wages and providing decent working conditions to reduce quit rates; but while such gains are welcome, the article emphasizes that broader structural change can only come from worker organizing.

Supplementary article from Understanding Society (affiliated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex) on poverty in the UK.

The second piece, also for Jacobin, is titled ‘Anti-Wage-Theft Laws Are Kryptonite to Dishonest Bosses’ and comes to us from journalist Joe Mayall. The article covers the success of the Anti-Wage-Theft Ordiance in Dever, CO and points to an important organizing platform for the Left.

The main article discussed in this episode “Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking” was published by the New York Times on June 15, 2024.

Supplementary articles mentioned in this episode include a recent (March, 2024) piece by Emma Ashford for The Guardian, which downplays Boris Johnson’s visit to Ukraine in the spring of 2022, as well as an article by Iryna Balachuk & Roman Ramaniuk for Ukrainska Pravda published in May, 2022, which paints the visit as decisive.

This latter sentiment is echoed in a 2023 article from the European Conservative which quotes Ukrainian official David Arahamiya as saying his team was “pressured” by the then British Prime Minister to abandon peace talks and “continue the fight.”

The final article discussed in the episode comes from Katherine Lawton writing for The Telegraph as NATO looks to mobilize nuclear assets amid rising tensions with Russia.

*UPDATE (June 23, 2024): For more analysis on the New York Times’ publishing of the Istanbul neotiations and peace treaty documents, check out this recent clip from Max Bluementhall at the Greyzone where he and Canadian journalist Aaron Matté (who has been covering the Ukraine conflict for years) break down the notable ommissions and obfuscations in the NYT disclosure piece.

The first piece covered in this episode “McKinsey Pulls the Strings Behind Justin Trudeau’s Curtain” comes from journalist Jeremy Appel over at Jacobin magazine.

The second article “Biden’s hopes for G7 foreign policy success undermined by Gaza war” comes from James Politi of the Financial Times.

We also supplement this latter piece with some commentary from the great Ralph Nader, providing a short excerpt from his latest episode of the Ralph Nader Radio Hour.

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