The coverage of predictions of election results ramp up the closer we get to elections. Election forecasters, both individual and organizational, have their own formulas for how they rate the likelihood of a Democrat or a Republican of winning a given contest. Today's episode dives into a variety of the factors these forecasters use to make their prediction, including election history, polling, and other elections happening at the same time.

Today's random question: If you could have an exotic animal as a pet that normally is not legally allowed, what would you choose and why?

My website: https://paulrader.org/

Like and follow my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/PaulRaderWrites

Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulrader352/

Read and follow my Medium blog: https://paulrader-42650.medium.com/

Email me: [email protected]

Matchmaker FM profile for booking me on your podcast: https://www.matchmaker.fm/podcast-guest/paul-rader-329e65

(0:00) Introduction and today's topic

(1:37) Big name forecasters and their formulas

(7:08) What kind of things do we look for when making predictions?

(8:33) Previous history of the same election's results

(11:32) Primary election turnout

(14:02) Polling: Misunderstandings about they work

(16:35) Polling: Issues and challenges

(21:20) Polling: Ideal measures

(23:16) Polling: "Likely" voters

(25:08) Numbers/percentages of Democrats/Republicans/others

(30:05) Concurrent elections and candidates

(32:09) Campaign strategies, current events, and party spending

(34:57) Random question and my other media