Midterm elections are often discussed for how much the sitting president's party suffers losses, but commentary often doesn't showcase why that is. Today's episode dives into the world of midterms, why they often play out differently than presidential election years, what factors are used to predict their results, and what it all means for 2026 elections. Can Republicans buck the historical trend, or will they become another data point in it?

(0:00) Understanding Midterm Elections

(1:34) Why Midterm Elections Often Hurt the President's Party

(5:29) House vs. Senate Results in Midterms

(8:56) Noteworthy Midterm Results in US History

(14:54) Indicators Used to Predict Midterm Results, Strengths and Weaknesses

(15:41) Indicator: Generic Congressional Poll

(18:56) Indicator: Presidential Approval Rating

(21:06) Indicator: Recent Special Elections

(23:20) Indicator: Economic Factors

(25:20) Indicator: Retiring Incumbents in Congress

(28:29) Indicator: Stimson "Policy Mood" Measure

(31:41) Potential Biggest Impacts on the 2026 Midterms

(34:25) Can a Single Issue Drive the Midterm Results?

(36:37) Potential Factor: Redistricting Wars Between the Parties

(38:15) Potential Factor: Iran War

(40:29) Potential Factor: Immigration Policy

(42:40) Closing and Links

Ballot measures are the most direct way for voters to impact the political process…but they can be difficult and tedious to comprehend. Here's a guide to help you better understand them.

As a critical part of the election cycle, ballot measures cover a massive variety of topics: redistricting, voting systems, campaign contribution laws, government official salaries, healthcare, taxes, and many more. Today's episode of Politics with Paul will teach you how to research these measures, how to make them easier to read, the components to a ballot measure, and some of the political games played with them that you need to watch out for.

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(0:00) Intro to Understanding Ballot Measures

(2:00) Where Do I Find Ballot Measures?

(5:11) How Difficult is it to Read Ballot Measures?

(9:07) Why Not Just Make Ballot Measures and Laws Easy to Read?

(11:08) Readability Laws, Single-Subject Rules, Separate Vote Requirements

(14:22) Components of a Ballot Measure

(20:52) How to Tell What a Ballot Measure is Changing

(23:48) Fiscal Impact Statements

(26:09) The Tug of War Between Summaries and Full Text

(30:17) Political Games and Ballot Measures

(31:43) Vague vs. Specific Wording in Ballot Measure Text

(34:02) Emotionally Charged Words in Ballot Measures

(37:16) Purposely Murky Language

(40:14) Heavy Partisan/Ideological Leaning For or Against Measures

(42:14) State Governments Overstepping Bounds For or Against Measures

(45:23) Closing and Links

What if a Congressional party nomination could become more localized and geared toward all small donors?

Primary elections tend to heavily favor the most well-funded and extreme candidates. Many Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike often feel the nominating process is unfair and unrepresentative as a result. But could a new third party's "People's Primary" be the answer to these criticisms?

Today's guest on Politics with Paul is Tom Joseph, founder of America's Main Street Party. The AMSP uses the "People's Primary" to select its nominee, using local committees, small donors, and an app to allow citizens to choose the party's nominee. Listen in as Tom discusses the strategy behind this method, why the current candidate nomination process is flawed, and whether this system could expand in use in the future.

(0:00) Introduction to Political Reform

(1:58) Why Tom is Involved in Reforming Candidate Nomination Processes

(4:03) What is AMSP and Why Create it?

(8:15) How AMSP's "People's Primary" Works

(15:04) How the "People's Primary" Engages Citizens, Addresses Voter Apathy

(19:46) On Pushback from People Who Say this Work is Impractical

(22:40) On Misconceptions of What the AMSP's Super PAC is

(26:23) Other Potential Misunderstandings About AMSP, "People's Primary"

(27:23) Why Name it "America's Main Street Party"?

(28:13) The Rise of Congressional Caucuses, Increase in Factionalism

(31:33) Can the AMSP Primary System be Extended to State, Local Elections?

(34:04) Independent Candidates' Strategy: Whether to Run in Competitive Districts

(37:15) Practical Tips for Reforming Nomination Processes, Get Involved with AMSP

(39:40) Could We Reform the Timing of Presidential Primaries?

(42:16) Random Question: Your Pet Peeves Few, if Any, Other People Have?

(45:21) Our Links to Share, Closing

Could we see the end of political parties in America in the future?

While political parties have existed in this country since the 1790s, they have also often been the target of intense criticism. Despite how much they are lamented and how many voters identify as independents, however, the Democratic and Republican Parties hold the vast majority of elected offices that have partisan elections.

But today's guest, Metin Pekin, argues that not only is it necessary to dissolve the party system-- he says it is practical and achievable. Metin is the author of "Breaking Democracy's Chains: Freeing and Fortifying Democracy Against Hidden Capture." Hear his thoughts on how to create a party-less future in American politics, why he believes any number of political parties is a problem, and his responses to criticisms of the idea of no parties.

(0:00) Intro: Metin Pekin, A Party-less Future?

(2:02) Why Metin Researched Democracies and Political Parties

(5:15) Why Metin Wrote "Breaking Democracy's Chains"

(9:16) Why Metin Says Previous Reforms to the Party System Haven't Worked

(14:47) What Would Elections Look Like in a Party-Less Future?

(21:42) The Filtering of Political Party Candidates Before Election Day

(26:00) Arguments Made Against Having a Party-Less System

(26:41) Would Dissolving Parties Infringe on 1st Amendment's Freedom of Association?

(34:28) How Would You Incentivize Politicians to Reject Parties?

(41:28) Would No Parties in Elections Lead to Lower Voter Turnout?

(49:06) Metin's Tips for Practically Pushing Back on the Political Party System

(53:10) Random Question: One of Your Unpopular Food Opinions

(56:12) Closing and Links

What makes a government representative of the people - and is that what we see in America?

Everybody wants a government that not only works for them but also reflects its constituents. There is also a lot of agreement that government falls short of doing so. Yet how people envision that representativeness isn't always the same, and there are a lot of obstacles that hinder government's ability to be representative.

Today's episode explores this concept of representation in government. How often should representatives do exactly what the voters want? What kinds of representativeness do different people find important? What are some roadblocks to representation that we need to address. Tune in for the answers to these questions and more.

(0:00) Intro to Representativeness, Practical and Philosophical Considerations

(1:52) Do Most Americans Feel Their Governments are Representative?

(5:41) The 4 Models of Government Representation

(6:27) The Delegate vs. Trustee Models of Representation

(11:22) The Politico Model of Representation

(14:13) The Partisan Model of Representation

(16:34) Some Different Kinds of Representativeness

(17:08) Is Government Partisanly Representative of the Public?

(22:05) Is Government Ideologically Representative of the Public?

(24:42) Is Government Racially Representative of the Public?

(25:51) Is Government Representative in Terms of Gender?

(27:36) Challenges to Representativeness in Government

(28:04) Challenge #1: Low Voter Turnout

(32:59) Challenge #2: Ballot Access Laws

(36:19) Challenge #3: Need for "Purity" in the Major Parties

(38:39) Challenge #4: Gerrymandering

(43:01) Challenge #5: Large Populations in Legislative Districts

(46:27) The Future of Representativeness in Government

(55:30) Closing and Links

Do we know what civility in conversation actually looks like?

Healthy and grounded discussion is in short supply, especially in politics. Political discussions are often filled with toxic rhetoric and behavior, leading to many instances of verbal and physical violence. But while we know what toxicity looks like, there are some misunderstandings and mistaken beliefs about what civility looks like. 

So how do we become more civil? Today's guest, Dr. Michael Lee, dives into this question and more. Dr. Lee is the executive director of the Civility Initiative at the College of Charleston and the host of the "When We Disagree" Podcast. Check out his insights, spanning over multiple decades, on what we get wrong about civility, how to better engage in healthy discussion, and how to make civil dialogue more engaging and fun.

(0:00) Introduction to Civility and Toxicity, Dr. Michael Lee

(1:41) Dr. Lee's Start in Promoting Civility and Healthy Debate

(5:18) How the Civility Initiative Started and What it Does

(9:06) Distinction Between Fight or Flight Responses to Toxicity

(14:00) Misconceptions About the Meaning of Civility

(18:21) Things We Think are Civil but are Actually Contributors to Toxicity

(23:00) Dr. Lee's Personal Experiences of Using Civility

(27:12) Factors that Particularly Amplify Toxicity

(32:35) Dr. Lee's "When We Disagree" Podcast and What it's About

(39:37) Practical Ways You Can Apply Civility Right Now

(42:32) Random Question: The Proper Pronunciation of ".GIF"

(44:30) Closing, Dr. Lee's Links, My Links

Republicans and Democrats just can't get along…or can they?

Almost all the talk about interparty relations is about how much they bicker, fight, and attack each other. And it's true, there is a lot that divides us. However, there is a surprising amount that both parties actually agree on - they just don't realize it.

But it's easy to say that we actually have a lot of common ground - how about some examples? Today's episode will show you why we focus so much on differences between the parties, why we underestimate the level of similarities, some of the contexts through which we can study and showcase commonalities, and why acknowledging these commonalities is key for making progress on our country's most pressing problems.

(0:00) Intro: DEMs and REPs Agree On More Than You Think

(1:33) Why We Perceive More Difference Than There Actually is

(5:58) 4 Ways We Can Study Differences/Similarities Between the Parties

(8:13) Method #1: Party in Government vs. Organization vs. Electorate

(10:50) Method #2: Federal vs. State vs. Local Government

(13:27) Method #3: Specific Political Issues and Policies

(16:30) Method #4: Core Values

(17:59) Similarities Between Parties: Elected Officials in Government

(23:09) Similarities Between Parties on Specific Issues and Policies

(30:10) Similarities Between Parties in Local Government

(33:47) Similarities Between Parties on Core Values

(35:20) Core Values Case Study #1: AP-NORC Poll in 2024

(37:04) Core Values Case Study #2: Views on Civic Responsibilities

(39:27) Closing: How Showing People Their Commonalities Leads to Progress

(40:53) Links

In political discussions, blame often gets thrown around. People get accused of "both sides-ing" an issue when they don't take a strong stance. Or accusations of wrongdoing are responded to with, "Yeah, but what about you?!" The vast majority of disputes in politics involve at least one of these rhetorical devices.

Oftentimes, these tactics are destructive and unhelpful, making discourse worse. But are there times where blaming, accusing someone of "both sides-ing," or whataboutism are justified? Today's episode explores our penchant for engaging in these tactics, why they regularly happen, why the line for when these are acceptable is hard to draw, and what we should ask ourselves before we use these tactics.

Quality discussions, and finding solutions to our most pressing problems, greatly depend on properly addressing these things.

(0:00) Intro: Blame, "Both Sides-ing," and Whataboutism in Politics

(3:26) Blame Game: The Propensity for Pointing Fingers

(9:48) When (If Ever) Should We Engage in Blaming Somebody?

(16:08) Questions to Ask Yourself When it Comes to Blaming

(21:25) What is "Both Sides-ing" and How Often Does it Happen?

(28:09) When is an Accusation of "Both Sides-ing" Warranted?

(35:35) Questions to Ask Yourself When it Comes to "Both Sides-ing"

(39:47) Whataboutism: Responding to Accusations with Counter-Accusations

(44:57) When (if Ever) Should We Engage in Whataboutism?

(52:26) Questions to Ask Yourself When it Comes to Whataboutism

(59:53) Closing and Links

Government often feels unaccountable and non-transparent - but it doesn't have to be that way.

Imagine an app and platform that not only significantly cuts down on the difficulty and time-consumption of researching bills and how legislators vote on them. It also allows you, the voter, to tell legislators in real-time how you want them to vote, and therefore makes them more accountable to the people. Sound too good to be true?

Well, that's what the Digital Democracy Project does, helmed by today's Politics with Paul guest, Ramon Perez. A military veteran, AI consultant, and political reformer, Ramon discusses how DDP, artificial intelligence, regular citizens, and other key projects can make government officials more accountable and transparent than ever before.

(0:00) Intro: Ramon Perez, Digital Democracy Project, Government Accountability

(2:11) Why and How Ramon Got Involved in Government Accountability Efforts

(5:58) How Ramon Joined Digital Democracy Project, What DDP Does

(12:31) How DDP Makes it Easy to Research Data on Bills, Legislator Votes

(16:04) Stats on DDP Usage, Key Political Figures Endorsing it

(20:54) Other Examples of How DDP has Made Government More Accountable

(25:50) How Digital Democracy Project Addresses Voter Apathy

(30:09) How Artificial Intelligence Helps Make Government More Accountable

(33:51) A Potential Renaissance for Local Journalists?

(38:47) Ranked Choice Voting and Potential Impacts on Accountability, Transparency

(43:43) The Future and Ambitions of Digital Democracy Project

(48:07) How Citizens Can Practically Make Government More Accountable

(51:55) Random Question: What Documentary Would You Make?

(59:29) Links and Closing

It's an election year - and that means a lot of fodder about election polls and the "horse race" aspect of polls. It's easy to get caught up in who is "winning" a race, but a lot of the discussion about polls is immersed in misunderstandings about how it works, vested interests in what polls get promoted, and surface-level analysis of public opinion. For as much as people obsess over polls, many of them also love to trash polls as unreliable and even deceptive.

Today's episode of Politics in Paul cuts through a lot of that noise, seeking to make polling more accessible and understandable. Listen in to get the real story masked by some of polling's biggest misconceptions, the key ingredients to look for in polling, and why a healthy dose of skepticism (but not distrust) is warranted. Equip yourself to know what is useful polling info and fodder - and what isn't - in the leadup to the 2026 election.

(0:00) Understanding Election Polling Season

(1:40) Clearing Up Misconceptions About Polling

(3:40) Misconception #1: Polls are Lying When They are Inaccurate

(9:20) Misconception #2: Polls are Exact Measures of What the Public Feels

(11:03) Misconception #3: Misunderstanding What Margin of Error is

(16:22) Misconception #4: Pollsters Use the Same Exact Polling Methods

(17:05) Misconception #5: That There is Such a Thing as a "Dead Heat"

(19:14) What Polls Actually Matter?

(27:08) What are the Most Important Parts of Polls to Know?

(28:45) Need to Know: Who Made the Poll?

(30:52) Need to Know: Margin of Error, Sample Size, Randomness or Not

(32:21) Need to Know: If the Sample is Demographically Representative, Weighted

(36:17) Need to Know: Unexpected Opinions of a Demographic

(38:15) Why the Timing of Polls Matters

(45:09) What is a "Likely Voter" and Why Does it Matter?

(54:38) Closing and Links