Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss Senator Mitch McConnell’s legacy after he announced his intention to step down from his role as Senate Republican Leader effective November 2024. They also talk about the Michigan presidential primary election results; the impact of district changes after the New York State Assembly and Senate both passed a new New York Congressional map this week that was signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul; a preview of the California Congressional primary; and the recent history of split-ticket voting in presidential and Senate elections. 

Links in this episode: 

• The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two
• Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss recent political developments and new analyses on the Crystal Ball, including reduced split-ticket voting in Senate elections, updates on 2024 Senate contests, insights from the NY-3 special election results and the significance of New York redistricting for the House of Representatives. They also highlight the decreasing number of competitive House seats and the potential impact on future control of the House.

Links in this episode

• Notes on the State of the Senate
• Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the recent Nevada caucus and primary results and dive into the potential impact of ticket-splitting in down-ballot House of Representatives elections this year. Rich Thau, president of Engagious, also joins Carah, Tyler Busch, Zoe Shook, and Etienne Ouellette to discuss focus groups with voters in key states for the 2024 elections. The 2024 Deciders is a project with Sago and Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship,

In the presidential elections

• The Race for the House, Part One
• The Race for the House, Part Two
• Engagious - 2024 Deciders

Award-winning journalist Darren Samuelsohn joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Doddridge (UVA ‘26) to help make sense of the various Trump trials and their implications for politics and the upcoming election, what it’s really like covering the former president, and navigating journalism in the modern media landscapes.

Links in this episode:

• Love, Journalism
• Darren Samuelsohn
• Court Listener

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss what they learned about voter turnout in the New Hampshire primary election and how they are thinking about the upcoming presidential primary elections. They also discuss the recent decision in Louisiana to create a second Black-majority Congressional district, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state. 

Links in this episode: 

• The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting
• Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

Polls suggest that the New Hampshire Primary should be more competitive than Donald Trump's large margin in Iowa's low-turnout caucus. Just 4 of New Hampshire’s 10 counties will likely comprise 75% of the primary electorate. Dante Scala, University of New Hampshire, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to offer a guide to which New England hamlets offer the best clues to the outcome on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Kyle also discusses among which key demographic groups Donald Trump did better in Iowa’s low-turnout 2024 caucus compared to 2016.

Links in this episode

• A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary
• Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

It’s a flurry of snow and presidential campaigning in Iowa this week in the leadup to the Hawkeye state’s caucuses on Monday, January 15, 2024. Although former president Donald J. Trump continues to hold the lead in polling averages by 30+ percentage points in Iowa, candidates and campaigns are inundating the public with ads, leaflets and rallies, hoping Iowans will brave the freezing temperatures and weather conditions to caucus for them. 

Dr. Karen Kedrowski, Director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss campaign strategies, changes to the Democratic caucus, and how all the efforts might impact the outcome and what it means for the 2024 presidential election. They also discuss changing demographics in Iowa and key areas to watch as caucus results roll in. 

Links in this episode: 

• Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University
• Previewing the Iowa Caucus: A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik (January 11, 2024) 

As we commemorate the third anniversary of the attacks on the U.S. Capitol, we talk with DC Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges. On January 6, 2021, Ofc. Hodges responded with Civil Defense Unit 42 to the attacks on the U.S. Capitol as Capitol Police units were overrun. Ofc. Hodges fought those who assaulted the Capitol on the west lawn, the west terrace, and in the tunnel leading out to the inaugural platform, sustaining many injuries in the process. While fighting in the tunnel he was crushed by rioters in the west terrace doors of the Capitol and beaten. He returned to full duty within a month and continues to serve as an officer. Not only does he continue to serve, he also has testified in court cases about January 6 and in a case in the Colorado Supreme Court, which recently ruled  that Donald Trump is disqualified from the state's 2024 ballot under the Constitution's “insurrectionist ban.” Former President Donald Trump formally asked the US Supreme Court to reverse that decision on January 3.

Along with others who defended democracy on January 6, 2021, Officer Hodges received a Congressional medal, the Presidential Citizens Medal and the Center for Politics’ 2023 Defenders of Democracy award.

Hodges joined the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department in 2014.  Hodges has also received multiple awards for his services with MPD, including a Commendation medal for responding to a man brandishing a gun and threatening MPD Officers and talking him into disarming and surrendering.  Civil Disturbance Unit 42 is a "rapid response" platoon that is equipped with non-standard defensive gear and is activated for policing a variety of First Amendment assemblies, protests, and riots.

Links in this episode:

Officer Daniel Hodges testifies to Congress about the January 6, 2021 attacks on the U.S. Capitol.

Kyle Kondik shares his new analysis on Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball that compares Trump’s approval in 2019 to Biden’s approval in 2023, the same point in each presidency. He finds that Biden’s lower approval is not driven by a higher level of antipathy from Republicans. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also reflect on the state of democracy and the upcoming 2024 elections. 

Links in this episode: 

• Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Former Members of Congress Barbara Comstock (Republican) and L.F. Payne (Democrat), and Alex Theodoridis (UMass) join Carah Ong Whaley and Samuel Kipps (UVA '23) to discuss the findings from a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024 and the differing narratives surrounding the events of January 6th. They also discuss the state of dysfunction and polarization in Congress and efforts to rebuild trust and civility in politics.

Rep. Comstock is a senior adviser for the law and lobbying firm, Baker Donelson, a political commentator, and, most importantly, a resident scholar with us here at the Center for Politics, among many esteemed positions. Rep. Payne is president of Three Ridges Group in Charlottesville, VA, and a member of the University of Virginia’s Board of Visitors. and also joining us is Alex Theodoridis, Associate Professor of Political Science and co-director of the UMass Poll at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. 

Links in this episode: 

• U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress and University of Massachusetts Amherst UMass Poll