As important as knowing what the competitive races are is knowing where there is a lack of competition and what election results are likely or basically guaranteed to happen. But expectations aren't just about who is going to win. We also can make reasonable predictions about things like campaign spending, incumbent performance, and voter turnout. Today is part 1 of the preview of Election 2024, focusing on what the safe (or at least safer) predictions are and why they are predictable.

Today's random question: Miracle Whip: Yes or no?

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(0:00) Intro and today’s topic

(2:04) News organizations calling elections seemingly early

(4:43) Voter turnout

(10:05) Performance of candidates

(17:23) Predictable contests: Overview

(17:57) Predictable contests: States for president

(22:35) Predictable contests: US Senate

(25:46) Predictable contests: US House

(27:44) Predictable contests: Governors

(29:23) Predictable contests: Other races

(31:26) Campaign spending

(34:32) Random question and closing