What kind of factors and contexts should we look at to determine whether an election is competitive? Such aspects include campaign finances, party support, the impact of simultaneous races, and candidate qualities. Yet it’s not enough to have an advantage in any of these aspects—you must be able to harness those advantages properly. This episode takes a general overview of what makes elections competitive and which 2024 contests for US Senate, US House, governor, and state legislative chamber control are expected to be competitive. Later this week, we will take a deeper dive into what exactly makes those races competitive.

Today does not have a random question. That will be saved for the end of this string of episodes on competitive non-presidential races.

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(0:00) Intro and today’s topic

(1:44) Factors that can make an election contest competitive

(1:58) Factor: Voter registration numbers

(3:21) Factor: Campaign spending

(6:46) Factor: Open seats vs. incumbents

(7:57) Factor: Support from political party apparatus

(10:28) Factor: Alignment with the overall party/party standard-bearers

(12:24) Factor: Name recognition

(13:20) Factor: Concurrent races

(15:05) Factor: Polling numbers

(19:24) Factor: The candidates themselves

(22:32) Competitive races overview

(23:53) Competitive races: US Senate

(27:53) Competitive races: US House

(30:05) Competitive races: Governor

(33:50) Competitive races: State legislative chamber control

(37:35) Closing