As temperatures drop, New Yorkers turn up their thermostats and demand for electricity rises.

In anticipation of the cold season, the NYISO Operations team develops a winter preparedness report that evaluates the ability of the grid to meet demand on the coldest days of the year.

The NYISO’s 2024-25 Winter Assessment considers load forecast, the capacity of generators, the transmission system, and the availability of fuels that power fossil-fuel generators across the state.

This year’s Winter Assessment finds sufficient reliability margins under forecasted conditions, but in extreme cold weather, fuel shortages could affect those margins. 
 
In our latest Power Trends podcast, NYISO Vice President of Operations Aaron Markham discusses how his team works closely with generators, neighboring grid operators, and government agencies to prepare for the winter season and respond to challenges as they arise.

Listen to the podcast to learn more.

Read more:
New York’s Electric Grid Prepared to Meet Winter Demand Press Release

New York’s Winter Grid Reliability Challenges Fact Sheet

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How will the demand for electricity, a changing generation mix, and the transmission system evolve over the next 10 years? This is the question that our Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) examines in order to assess and identify impacts to reliability.

In the latest Power Trends podcast, Senior VP of System & Resource Planning Zach Smith dives deep into the 2024 RNA to explain how the NYISO analyzes demand forecasts, seasonal variations, and the impact of electrification on heating and transportation to ensure the grid can meet future needs.

Smith covers report findings that include the identification a Reliability Need in New York City in the summer of 2033, as well as changing scenarios that could solve for the need. Additional topics covered in the conversation include the NYISO’s Interconnection Queue, large energy-intensive projects, and important grid investments such as the Champlain Hudson Power Express.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of New York’s power grid and the many scenarios that must be examined to ensure its reliability.

Listen now to learn more.

Additional Resources

• 2024 RNA Fact Sheet
• 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment 

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As the diversity and scale of energy resources have evolved in recent years, NYISO’s market design team has been working hard to create and implement market innovations to support those technologies.

The most recent example of NYISO's commitment to innovation is the launch of a first-in-the nation program to integrate aggregations of distributed energy resources (DER) into the wholesale electric markets. This ground-breaking program allows small-scale resources including solar, wind, battery storage, and fuel cells to be aggregated as a single, dispatchable resource.

In episode 35 of the Power Trends podcast, NYISO’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Emilie Nelson discusses the potential impacts of the DER program on New York's ambitious climate goals as well as NYISO's real-time management of the bulk power system.

"When we look at the clean energy policies of New York State, we really need to create a framework that allows investment in all technology options," said Nelson.

While the cumulative benefits of the DER program will take time to be fully realized, the new market design was lauded by Willie Phillips, Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and former FERC Commissioner Allison Clement.

In the order that approved NYISO's DER market rules, they stated, "We are only now leaving the starting gates in unlocking the potential of DERs to provide reliability value to our grid, but that value will be essential to ensuring we meet new and emerging reliability challenges in the future in an efficient manner that protects customers. To date, NYISO has been at the forefront of developing a participation model for DERs and seeking to implement that model expeditiously."

NYISO forecasts distributed generation in the state to roughly double over the next three decades as the state strives to have 70% of its electricity generated by renewable resources by 2030 and achieve a zero-emission power grid by 2040.

Listen now to learn more about NYISO's DER program.

Additional Resources:

• DER Fact Sheet
• DER Press Release

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Our mission at the NYISO is to ensure power system reliability and competitive markets for New York in a clean-energy future, and to work with all stakeholders to build the cleanest, most reliable electric system in the nation. 

In keeping with our mission, we operate a capacity market to meet resource adequacy requirements and serve consumer demand. The capacity market acts as a transparent and cost-effective mechanism to avoid the danger of service interruptions and outages.

As older resources retire and new resources transform the way the system responds, capacity markets have become even more important to preserving system reliability. However, not every region in the U.S. has a capacity market to support reliability and resource adequacy. For example, Texas and California do not operate capacity markets. 

The Capacity Market’s demand curve reset process
In New York, the inputs that factor into the setting of capacity market prices are developed in a process known as the “demand curve reset.” In this episode of the Power Trends podcast, Shaun Johnson, Director of Marker Design, explains how the process works.

“The first thing we do is focus on proven technologies that meet system needs. We're trying to meet reliability for consumers at the lowest possible cost.” 

Referred to as “proxy units,” these technologies must be capable of responding to peak demand conditions and while meeting environmental and other regulatory requirements to operate in New York. Johnson explains the difficulty in transitioning from a generation fleet with one set of reliability attributes to one that is more intermittent, and weather dependent. 

The demand curve process assesses the cost to build and maintain capacity supply resources in order to be available when needed. That includes costs for equipment, construction, and financing, among others. 

Johnson describes the capacity market simply, “The capacity market is getting commitments from suppliers to help us meet reliability requirements and reduce the chances of the outages, even if they're not operating those facilities frequently.”

Listen now to learn more about the capacity market and the demand curve reset.

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When we talk about building a more sustainable future, the journey is as important as the destination. Steering the electric grid through these monumental changes requires leadership and creativity. 

As the NYISO’s Director of Grid Transition, Udayan Nair oversees the integration of new elements of the industry into our operations and planning functions and works to facilitate coordination across teams.

“A change of this magnitude is going to impact all parts of the organization,” Nair said. 
 “It's going to require the collaboration of the entire sector to be successful in this mission.”

New York’s ambitious climate agenda inspired Nair to relocate his family from Ontario to Albany last year to head up the grid transition team and make sure the organization is well-positioned for the future.

With combined expertise in demand forecasting, environmental engineering, gas and electric coordination and power system engineering, his team is tackling numerous challenges around the power system transition that is well underway.  

In our latest Power Trends podcast, Nair discussed some of these challenges, including the impacts of the electric system’s evolving demand profile, the retirement of thermal energy resources, extreme weather events, shrinking fuel security margins and questions around how renewable resources will interact with the grid. 

Nair’s department works proactively to formulate solutions to these problems. Increasing coordination between the NYISO’s operations and planning elements is the first step. They also perform detailed engineering studies to integrate inverter-based resources, assess the impact of environmental policy on the generation fleet, and provide real-time engineering support to the control room.

Maintaining grid reliability through this period of uncertainty is central to the NYISO’s mission. Data can help illuminate the path forward, Nair said. His department is now looking to add a data scientist who can support the department’s various functions and enhance the NYISO’s forecasting capabilities.  

Nair’s experience in three power sector verticals – transmission, generation, and system operations – has given him deep understanding of the grid and the conditions that must align to keep the system going.  

“It helped me understand and appreciate all the things that have to happen perfectly, so that when you turn on that light switch, the power comes on,” he said. 

Nair earned a Master of Engineering from the University of Waterloo and a Master of Business Administration from the University of Toronto. In addition to working for multiple system operators, he has held positions at the electricity generator Ontario Power Generation, leading transmission owner Hydro One, and the vertically integrated utility company ENMAX.

New York’s climate plan raises complex questions, many of which have yet to be resolved, but the state is not alone in its effort to transition to a cleaner, greener electric system, Nair said. Maintaining a stable grid throughout the transition requires close coordination with neighboring system operators, especially during extreme weather events. 

“We don’t have to reinvent the wheel. When we look across the nation, everyone is embarking on this clean energy journey simultaneously,” Nair said. “Other ISOs are on different points in their journey, but they may have trialed certain techniques and practices which work very well. What can we learn from them?” 

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What does the path to a decarbonized grid by 2040 look like? Dr. C. Lindsay Anderson of Cornell University is working to answer the question of where best on the grid to incorporate large amounts of new generation on the future grid to achieve optimal performance. 

Anderson is chair of Cornell’s Department of Biological & Environmental Engineering. Her research focuses on creating detailed models of energy systems to see how they’ll perform under different conditions. Her other research interests run the gamut including energy economics; the future of nuclear power including fusion; renewable power systems including solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower; energy conservation by users and demand-side management; and global climate change.

The research team at the eponymous Anderson Lab is looking for ways to modify the algorithms used to make decisions on operating systems. The lab’s modeling is comprised of numerous independent data sets including those provided by NREL (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Anderson notes that NYISO’s publicly available datasets play an essential role in validating historical power flows, peak load patterns, and market behaviors.

“The last thing we want to do is keep all the fossil generators online and running just in case we need them,” she said, “because that undermines our ability to decarbonize.”

A big part of the research deals with considering the practical implications of the CLCPA. She calls it an exciting opportunity to look at New York’s climate goals and determine how they’ll work

Talking to people at the NYISO who know the system well is another important part of the process according to Anderson. She cites our ongoing System Resource and Outlook reporting and analysis of multiple decarbonization scenarios as essential in understanding the numerous variables and impacts.

Some of those challenges result from geospatial issues. Renewable energy generated upstate still needs to be transmitted to downstate where the demand is greatest.

“The offshore wind off Long Island is key to that because it's located down there and wouldn't have to come through those lines. So those being effectively built up is going to be critically important,” she said.

Moving forward, modeling the ideal end state of a decarbonized grid is as important as anticipating the steps along the way in order to understand the iterative impacts of integrating new technology, and how we keep the system reliable throughout the transition.

Additional Resources and Information
Dr. C. Lindsay Anderson bio | Anderson Lab 

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Columbia University’s Daniel Zarrilli knows a thing or two about New York City and the effects of climate change.

For almost a decade prior to Hurricane Sandy, he worked on the city’s waterfront, managing maintenance and construction of the city’s piers and bulkheads, overseeing cruise terminals and other maritime assets, and working with coastal communities on a variety of local projects. That experience along the city’s 520-mile shoreline, plus his training as an engineer, put him in view of Mayor Michael Bloomberg as he was standing up his initiative to rebuild New York following Hurricane Sandy and make it more resilient.

Bloomberg appointed Zarrilli as the city’s first resilience director. He then became Chief Climate Policy Advisor under Mayor Bill de Blasio, helping usher landmark energy policy through the city council, which mandates emissions reductions produced by the city's largest buildings of 40 percent by 2030.

Now Zarrilli serves as Special Advisor for Climate and Sustainability at Columbia University, helping to create a new world-leading climate school and advising on pathways to achieve the university’s deep decarbonization goals. 

This wealth of deep experience and expertise makes him a valuable addition to the NYISO’s Environmental Advisory Council, a group of outside experts that informs NYISO leadership on evolving state and federal climate policy and environmental justice considerations.

Local Law 97, New York City’s building decarbonization law passed in 2019, requires most buildings over 25,000 square feet to meet new energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions limits, with even stricter limits coming into effect in 2030.

There are already indications that the policy is working, Zarrilli said. 

 “New Yorkers have so much to be proud of for the progress that has been made,” Zarrilli said. “There were $20 billion in climate adaptation investments made after Hurricane Sandy, everything from flood protection to grid upgrades to new elevated hospitals in our coastal communities.”  

“I think the much more exciting thing about Local Law 97 is how it has catalyzed this marketplace in New York City around clean energy technology, innovation, and investment that is all now centered in New York City,” he said. 

“So much of our infrastructure was built for a world and a climate that doesn’t exist anymore,” he said.

He pointed to concerns about global economic conditions and supply chain challenges that can make electrification projects difficult. In the offshore wind space, he noted that some coastal communities have zoning concerns and questions that must be addressed and answered.

Zarrilli credits the NYISO’s forward-thinking approach to the wholesale electric market, which he says will drive incentives to speed up the clean energy transition. 

“The role that the NYISO plays to help provide that stimulus and incentive is really important, and not a fully appreciated role,” Zarrilli said, “but it's a critical one that I think the state and other ISOs are going to continue to learn from.

Additional Resources and Information

The New York ISO Environmental Advisory Council

Columbia Climate School

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You might say Nicole Bouchez’s role as the NYISO’s Consumer Interest Liaison and Senior Principal Economist combines deep data analytics with good, old-fashioned customer service. 

She has an especially important responsibility evaluating the impacts of major market design changes for stakeholders, policymakers, and market participants. That’s where her PhD in International Economics comes in handy. 

But a large part of her job also includes working directly with some of the largest energy consumers in the state so they understand those studies and how changes to electric system planning, operations, and decarbonization policies might impact their bottom line. 

“Consumers are always concerned about costs,” Bouchez said. “They're also concerned about the technology switch that's happening and how smooth that's going to be. They're concerned about reliability, as we all are.”

In addition to performing consumer impact analyses, her office also responds to consumer questions about the markets and provides important training and information sessions. Her knowledge of the New York energy markets and her time as Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, make her especially suited for that responsibility.

Bouchez’s role is unique even among ISOs and other research entities. She says one of the things she likes most about her job is how outward-facing it is – interacting with a diverse cross-section of market participants and stakeholders invested in the future of how the electric system will perform.

Her office accesses “real-world” electric systems data in its presentations and materials for stakeholders, providing a deep but comprehensive look into how the energy industry and the grid is changing.  “We’re able to leverage that information in our analyses, which is quite exciting,” she said.

Bouchez, who co-chaired a task force in 2017 designing a carbon pricing proposal, is optimistic about the role that markets can play in supporting the grid of the future.
“We learned a great deal about how we can incorporate carbon dioxide emissions costs into our markets to support clean energy policy goals without jeopardizing reliability,” Bouchez noted.

She explains that if competitive wholesale electric markets can integrate the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, there’s more incentive to efficiently invest in cleaner resources.

As New York State studies its options to meet the goals of the CLCPA, Bouchez thinks the task force’s efforts are important and especially timely.

“I think that there is a desire to lower our carbon emissions as a country and as a state. It's taking us down a future that I could have never anticipated in 2017 when we started this. This is a really exciting time for [the industry],” she said.

Additional Resources and Information:

• At the NYISO, "Independent" is (Literally) our Middle Name
• Energy vs. Capacity: How Teamwork Between Markets Supports a Least-Cost Approach to Grid Reliability

Learn More

• Follow us on Twitter @NewYorkISO and LinkedIn @NYISO
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In this episode of our Power Trends podcast, Julie Tighe discusses her role leading the New York League of Conservation Voters, and her recent addition to the NYISO’s Environmental Advisory Council (EAC). The EAC, which was formed in 2005, provides information and analysis on state and federal environmental policies relative to NYISO’s mission of grid reliability.

“No one is going to be happy if the air conditioning goes out in a heat wave. So, we need to be strategic about that,” she said.

NYLCV’s efforts range from advocating for clean air and water to working with the real estate industry on constructing greener buildings. 

“[The League is] the political arm of the environmental movement here in New York, where we really hold elected officials accountable for their actions on environmental policy,” she explained.

In the interview, Julie discusses new grid-level technology being developed, including thermal energy networks, that could address growing consumer electric demand. Tighe said it’s crucial to avoid “pie in the sky policy” and work on practical solutions that address decarbonization goals while maintaining system reliability.

Julie also speaks to the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019, arguably the nation’s most ambitious set of state decarbonization policies.  “On the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act…the state went through a robust planning process with a significant amount of public input, lots of stakeholders who were involved in the conversation, really setting out the roadmap for how we are going to achieve these big, bold, ambitious goals of getting to an economy that is 85% emissions reduction by 2050,” she said.

“We need to have big stretch goals…but I also think we need to make sure that they are, in fact, technically achievable in a manner that's affordable,” she said. 

Read the announcement of Julie Tighe’s addition to the New York ISO’s Environmental Advisory Council

Additional Resources and Information

Environmental Advisory Council
New York League of Conservation Voters 

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New York’s recent peak day for electricity consumption came during a heatwave, as millions of people relied on their air conditioners to keep cool. That’s not unusual. However, some of the circumstances leading up to that day still provided a challenge.

On our latest Power Trends podcast, NYISO’s Vice President of Operations Aaron Markham discusses what goes into maintaining a reliable grid during a late-season heatwave. 

The peak load on Sept. 6 was just over 30,200 megawatts. New York’s historic peak demand is 33,956 megawatts, recorded in July 2013.

Markham pointed out that there have been several system changes since then, like generator retirements.  

It’s unusual to see a peak day in September. The high-demand days usually come in July or August when hot, humid conditions drive up the desire for air conditioning. Besides the peak coming later in the season than expected, there were other unusual factors that came up.

“We had some generation that became forced out of service,” Markham said.

When something like that happens, the operators in the control room activate contingency plans.

“That resulted in us committing some additional generation to make sure we had sufficient supply,” he explained.

On a peak day like this, very close coordination with utility companies is also essential.

“The expectation is that we've talked through all the potential contingencies that could occur,” Markham said. “What is a system going to look like? What is the set of resources that we're going to use to resolve that and make sure that everybody is on board, from the neighbors to the utilities in the state, to the NYISO operators in the room.”

Challenging situations aren’t limited to warmer months. Markham’s team of operators had to deal with a different set of conditions brought on by sudden extreme cold in December 2022.  

With high demand for natural gas to heat people’s homes, meant less gas available for generating electricity.

“We have a survey process where we actually reach out to the generators to look at…what is their fuel supply situation? Do they have alternate oil backup in the tanks? Are they expecting deliveries of that?” Markham explained. “So that's another aspect that comes into winter operations, all of which we did leading up to this event.”

Events like this demonstrate New York’s system is reliable, Markham said.

“We were able to maintain flows within limits, all the various parameters on the power system within limits. And we still did have, through the event, some surplus capability,” he said.

To learn more about our Operations Team and how they manage the grid, listen to the podcast.

Additional Resources and Information

Real-Time Dashboard

Shaving Peaks with the Sun

Staying Cool in the Deep Freeze: How NYISO’s Forecasters Performed During Winter Storm Elliott

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