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pplpod episodes

  • Edward Thorp: The Math Professor Who Beat Blackjack and Wall Street

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    In the early 1960s a mathematician sat at Nevada blackjack tables in wraparound sunglasses and a fake beard, quietly proving that the house could be beaten. This episode follows Edward O. Thorp from a tinkering childhood, when he became a certified ham radio operator at 12, through a physics degree and a 1958 PhD in mathematics at UCLA. As a professor he taught himself Fortran to run blackjack simulations on an IBM 704 and showed that the game has a memory: when low cards leave the deck, the odds tilt toward the player.

    Thorp paired that insight with the Kelly criterion, a formula for sizing bets to grow a bankroll without courting ruin, then tested it with money from gambler Manny Kimmel. Casinos answered by shuffling early, so he moved on: first to roulette, where he and Claude Shannon built a hidden computer, and then to Wall Street. There he treated investor panic as a source of mispricing and pioneered the market neutral, quantitative approach to trading.

    • Backed by $10,000 from Manny Kimmel, Thorp won $11,000 in a single weekend of casino play.
    • His 1962 book Beat the Dealer sold more than 700,000 copies and took probability research straight to the public instead of an academic journal.
    • The roulette device he built with Claude Shannon in 1960 and 1961 used a toe switch to time the ball and sent a tone to a hidden earpiece predicting where it would land.
    • No law covered such machines when they used it, and Nevada did not ban electronic devices in casinos until 1985.
    • Thorp ran Princeton Newport Partners from 1969 to 1989, reported a 20 percent average annual return over 28.5 years, and in 1991 judged Bernie Madoff's results mathematically impossible.
    22 min
  • Marcus Licinius Crassus: Rome's Richest Man and His Fatal Envy

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    In 53 BC, at a royal wedding feast in Armenia, an actor performing the Bacchae carried onto the stage the real severed head of Marcus Licinius Crassus, until recently the richest man in Rome. This episode traces how he got there. As a young noble he saw his father and brother destroyed in the purges of Gaius Marius, fled to Spain, raised a private force of about 2,500 men, and joined Sulla. At the Battle of the Colline Gate he crushed the enemy on the right flank and helped make Sulla dictator. The lesson he took away was that money meant safety.

    Crassus bought the estates of the proscribed at auction, then built a fortune estimated at 200 million sesterces through Rome's burning apartment blocks. He financed and led the army that defeated Spartacus, only to watch Pompey claim the credit. He bankrolled Julius Caesar and became the financial glue of the First Triumvirate. But wealth never brought the military prestige he craved, and that hunger drove him into an unprovoked war with Parthia.

    • Crassus kept about 500 enslaved builders and firefighters who put out a blaze only after the panicked owner sold him the property at a fraction of its worth.
    • Tried over his attentions to the Vestal Virgin Licinia, he was acquitted because the jury accepted that he was only after her suburban villa.
    • To stiffen troops who had fled from Spartacus, he revived decimation: one man in ten, chosen by lot, was beaten to death by his comrades.
    • After the final battle he crucified 6,000 captured slaves along the Via Appia, yet received only an ovation on foot while Pompey rode in a triumph.
    • At Carrhae the Parthian general Surena resupplied his horse archers from camels loaded with arrows, and Crassus was killed in a scuffle during a forced parley.
    26 min
  • The Credit Card: From the 1958 Fresno Drop to a Hidden Tax on Cash

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    In 1958 Bank of America mailed 60,000 active, unrequested credit cards to residents of Fresno, California. The gamble caused financial chaos and created the modern credit card. This episode starts earlier, with metal charge coins on key rings, the Charga-Plate of 1928, the airlines' Air Travel Card, and the Diners Club card of 1950, which still had to be paid in full each month. What blocked a universal revolving card was a standoff: merchants would not accept a card nobody carried, and shoppers would not carry a card nobody accepted.

    Mass mailings broke that standoff, and by 1970 roughly 100 million unsolicited cards had reached American mailboxes before the government banned the practice. The episode then opens up the hidden plumbing of every swipe, from authorization and batching to settlement and funding, and explains how banks profit from both kinds of customer: revolvers who pay compounding interest and transactors whose purchases generate interchange fees that every shopper ends up covering.

    • Bank of America chose Fresno because about 45 percent of the city's residents already banked with it.
    • Betty Furness, a special assistant to President Johnson, compared handing out unsolicited cards to giving sugar to diabetics.
    • Before Visa's first CEO, Dee Hock, led the push to computerize authorization in 1973, clerks checked card numbers against printed books of stolen and invalid accounts.
    • The 1978 Supreme Court decision in the Marquette case let national banks charge the interest rates of their home state, which sent card issuers to South Dakota and Delaware.
    • Merchants pay interchange fees of 1 to 6 percent and raise prices for everyone, so a 2010 Federal Reserve study found that cash payers effectively subsidize cardholders' rewards.
    21 min
  • The Wall Street Crash of 1929: Margin Debt, Black Tuesday, and the Fallout

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    In August 1929, brokers had lent investors more than $8.5 billion to buy stocks, a sum greater than all the physical currency circulating in the United States. This episode examines the machinery behind the Wall Street crash rather than just its timeline. Beneath the boom of the 1920s, farmers were drowning in surpluses, factory wages had stagnated, and warehouses were filling with unsold goods. Yet investors kept buying on margin, encouraged by voices like Yale economist Irving Fisher, who declared that prices had reached a permanently high plateau.

    The break came in late October. On Black Thursday the market shed 11 percent at the open and the ticker tape fell hours behind, leaving investors to sell blind. A bankers' rescue staged on the trading floor held only through the weekend, and forced liquidations drove Black Monday and Black Tuesday. The episode then follows the damage outward: bank runs, a Federal Reserve that raised rates to defend the gold standard, crisis in Europe, and the reforms that still shape finance.

    • Roger Babson warned in early September that a terrific crash was coming, and the press shrugged off the brief dip as the Babson break.
    • Exchange vice president Richard Whitney walked the floor placing large bids for blue chips like U.S. Steel above the market price on behalf of the big banks.
    • On October 29 more than 16 million shares changed hands and the ticker ran until almost 8 p.m.
    • Nearly 2,300 banks failed in 1931 alone, and by the summer of 1932 the Dow had lost 89.2 percent of its peak value.
    • Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz blamed the Depression on the banking collapse and Federal Reserve policy more than on the crash itself, and the Dow did not regain its 1929 high until November 1954.
    22 min
  • Croesus of Lydia: The Richest King and the Prophecy That Ruined Him

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    Rich as Croesus is a phrase that has outlived its subject by more than two thousand years, yet the real king destroyed his own empire by misreading an oracle. This episode reconstructs the life of the last king of Lydia, born around 620 BC in what is now Turkey. He won the throne from his half-brother Pantaleon in a bitter succession fight, forced his own nephew out of Ephesus, and conquered the western coast of Asia Minor before deciding that treaties with the island Greeks would pay better than a naval war.

    His lasting achievement was monetary. Lydian metalworkers used salt and heat to separate the gold and silver in electrum, which let Croesus issue the first standardized pure gold coin and make Sardis the financial center of the Mediterranean. He spent that gold on alliances and on Delphi. Then came the losses: a son killed by the very spear he had dreamed of, and a war against Cyrus the Great launched on the promise that he would destroy a great empire. The empire was his own.

    • Before pure coinage, every electrum transaction meant weighing the metal and testing its purity with a touchstone, because one lump might be 70 percent gold and the next 40.
    • Croesus sent Delphi a solid gold lion weighing 10 talents, roughly 600 pounds, earning Lydian envoys priority access to the oracle.
    • In the tale told by Herodotus, the sage Solon refused to call Croesus the happiest of men, naming instead three ordinary Greeks who had died well.
    • At the Battle of Thymbra, Cyrus put riders on his baggage camels at the front of his line, and the scent panicked the famous Lydian cavalry.
    • Greek writers say rain saved Croesus from a burning pyre, while a single damaged cuneiform sign in a Babylonian chronicle leaves his real fate unknown.
    22 min
  • Kickstarter: $41 Million Miracles, Vaporware, and a 42-Day Strike

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    Kickstarter turned ordinary fans into venture capitalists who want a fantasy novel or a board game instead of equity. Launched in April 2009 by Perry Chen, Yancey Strickler, and Charles Adler, the site rested on a simple psychological device, the assurance contract: a creator sets a goal and a deadline, and if pledges fall even a dollar short, nobody is charged. This episode explains how that all or nothing rule solved the first mover problem, turned backers into evangelists, and drew more than $8.7 billion in pledges by April 2025.

    The same trust that funded Brandon Sanderson's secret novels also funded a laser razor that never existed. As the money grew, so did the fights: celebrity campaigns that angered indie creators, moderation decisions that drew charges of censorship, patent trolls, and a 2021 blockchain plan backed by $100 million from Andreessen Horowitz that enraged the artists who use the site. Inside the company, staff organized Kickstarter United and eventually walked out to win a new contract.

    • Kickstarter takes a 5 percent fee, claims no ownership of creators' work, limits projects to 13 creative categories, and bans charity fundraisers.
    • Tabletop and video games account for more than 20 percent of all money ever pledged on the platform.
    • After hardware failures like the Skarp laser razor, the company banned photorealistic renderings and required video of a working physical prototype.
    • A Wharton study found that 30 day campaigns succeed more often than 60 day ones and that larger funding goals reduce the odds of success.
    • The staff union, formed in 2020, struck for 42 days in late 2025 and won a four day workweek, cost of living raises, and protections against replacement by generative AI.
    24 min
  • The Panama Papers: How 11.5 Million Leaked Files Exposed Offshore Wealth

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    It began with a message from a source known only as John Doe: my life is in danger. Attached were 2.6 terabytes of data, 11.5 million documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, some dating back to the 1970s. This episode follows how Bastian Obermayer of the Süddeutsche Zeitung brought in the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, and how 107 media organizations in 80 countries worked in secret for more than a year, using character recognition software and a graph database to connect people to more than 214,000 offshore entities.

    A shell company is not a crime in itself. Stanley Kubrick's estate used offshore holding companies to shield his English manor from double taxation. But a system built to ask no questions also served drug cartels, sanctions evaders, and politicians, and its hidden money flowed into property in London and Vancouver, pricing out ordinary buyers. The leak named 12 current or former world leaders, toppled Iceland's prime minister, and recovered more than $1.2 billion, yet the firm's founders walked free.

    • The breach of Mossack Fonseca is thought to have exploited basic flaws such as an outdated WordPress plugin or an SQL injection bug.
    • WikiLeaks derided the decision to keep most of the files offline as 1 percent journalism, but the secrecy kept targets from moving money before publication.
    • A company linked to billionaire Beny Steinmetz owed more than $700,000 in property taxes to the impoverished city of Koidu in Sierra Leone.
    • Iceland's prime minister, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, secretly co-owned an offshore company holding claims against the failed banks whose creditors he was negotiating with, and he walked out of an interview when confronted.
    • In June 2024 a Panamanian judge acquitted the firm's founders and former employees, ruling that the chain of custody for the leaked digital evidence had been compromised.
    20 min
  • John Jacob Astor: Furs, Opium, and the Land Beneath Manhattan

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    In the 1830s roughly one of every hundred dollars in the United States belonged to John Jacob Astor. This episode traces how a butcher's son born in Waldorf, Germany in 1763 became America's first multimillionaire. At 16 he left for London and his uncle's musical instrument business, where he absorbed the workings of global trade. On the voyage to Baltimore he spent weeks talking with a fur trader, and he stepped ashore in March 1784 with a new plan: buy pelts cheaply on the frontier and sell them to Europe's elite.

    Astor's gift was reading politics as a supply chain problem. The Jay Treaty of 1794 let him plug into Canadian fur through the North West Company. When the Embargo Act of 1807 threatened to ruin him, he pitched President Jefferson on an all-American enterprise and founded the American Fur Company in 1808. He pushed to the Pacific, traded furs for tea and silk in Canton, and then, seeing silk hats replace beaver, sold out in 1834 and bet everything on Manhattan real estate.

    • His wife Sarah Cox Todd brought a $300 dowry and ran the New York operation, judging and packing furs with a business sense Astor rated above most merchants.
    • The Astor expedition founded Fort Astoria in April 1811, the first permanent United States settlement on the Pacific coast, and his men found the South Pass through the Rockies.
    • In 1816 the American Fur Company bought 10 tons of Ottoman opium and shipped it to Canton aboard the Macedonian.
    • Astor rarely built on his Manhattan land. Tenants on 21 year ground leases paid for construction, and the buildings reverted to him when the leases expired.
    • He died on March 29, 1848, at 84, leaving an estate of $20 to $30 million and $400,000 for the Astor Library, a forerunner of the New York Public Library.
    22 min
  • John Bogle and Vanguard: The Index Fund Wall Street Called Un-American

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    John C. Bogle built a firm that handles trillions of dollars and died in 2019 with about $80 million, a rounding error by the standards of finance. That gap was by design. This episode follows Bogle from a family ruined by the 1929 crash, through work scholarships at Blair Academy and a 130 page Princeton thesis on mutual funds that got him hired at the Wellington Fund. He rose to chairman by 1970, pushed a merger with aggressive Boston stock pickers, and was fired when the 1973 to 1974 bear market wrecked the fund's performance.

    His exit terms barred him from managing clients' money directly, so he found a loophole: a fund that picks nothing and simply tracks the Standard and Poor's 500. Vanguard, founded in 1974, was owned by its own funds, so it charged only what it cost to run. Rivals mocked the first retail index fund as Bogle's Folly. The arithmetic proved him right, even as he fought a failing heart, feuded with his chosen successor, and came to fear the power his invention had concentrated.

    • Bogle called the Wellington merger that got him fired shameful and inexcusable, a product of his own immaturity and arrogance.
    • William Sharpe's arithmetic of active management shows why indexing wins: before costs active investors as a group match the market, so after fees they must trail it.
    • Bogle had his first cardiac arrest at 31 and received a heart transplant in 1996 at age 66 after more than 100 days in the hospital.
    • During the dot-com mania the champion of buy and hold moved much of his personal portfolio from stocks into bonds and sidestepped the crash.
    • Late in life he warned that Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street now hold concentrated proxy voting power over nearly every major American corporation.
    21 min
  • Jim Simons: The Codebreaker Who Turned Wall Street Into a Math Problem

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    Jim Simons refused to wear socks, chain-smoked through meetings, and answered questions about publicity by quoting Benjamin the donkey from Animal Farm. He also died in May 2024 with a fortune of more than $31 billion. This episode maps the logic of his life: a bachelor's degree from MIT in three years, a PhD from Berkeley at 23, a motor scooter ride from Boston to Bogota, and work in geometry and topology with Shiing-Shen Chern that physicists later found they needed for string theory.

    In 1964 Simons joined the Institute for Defense Analyses to break codes, then lost the job for publicly opposing the Vietnam War. A decade chairing the math department at Stony Brook taught him to manage brilliant people. His great insight came next: markets, like ciphers, only look random. At Renaissance Technologies he hired mathematicians, physicists, and astronomers instead of MBAs, hunted for tiny statistical edges, and let algorithms trade on them without fear or greed.

    • The Chern-Simons form began as pure mathematics and became, decades later, a language physicists needed to describe quantum fields in three dimensions.
    • IBM asked Simons to attack Lucifer, an early block cipher that preceded the Data Encryption Standard.
    • The Medallion Fund, launched in 1988, averaged a 66.1 percent gross annual return and 39.1 percent after fees, earning over $100 billion in trading profits across three decades.
    • In 2008 the employee-only Medallion Fund surged 80 percent while the firm's funds for outside investors fell about 16 percent, and a 2014 Senate inquiry into basket options ended in a multibillion dollar tax settlement in 2021.
    • After losing his sons Paul in 1996 and Nick seven years later, Simons and his wife Marilyn gave more than $4 billion to causes including Math for America, autism research, and the Flatiron Institute.
    20 min

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pplpod is a podcast about people, places and lots of other stuff. Each episode takes a deep dive into the lives, choices, and legacies of fascinating figures from history, culture,…