*Key news articles for today*

CAPMAS is expected to release February inflation data on Sunday, 10th March. We expect annual urban inflation to drop appreciably to c.24% YoY, capitalizing on a particularly accommodative base effect.

A staff delegation from the IMF is reportedly in town. Sources said that a staff-level agreement with Egyptian officials will be signed as early as today.

Net Foreign Liabilities' position of the banking system deteriorated in January to c.USD29.0 bn from USD27.2 bn in December, based on CBE data.

Net International Reserves (NIR) inched up marginally in February to USD35.3 billion up from USD35.2 billion in January.

Egypt's fuel imports in 2M2024 stood at c.USD2 billion, a government official said, adding that petroleum products constituted between 60 and 70% of the import bill with a value of USD1.3 billion, while the rest of the bill went to other types of fuel.

OLFI (FV: EGP15.0, OW) reported 4Q23 results: 

4Q23 attributable net profit recorded EGP163 mn (+20% YoY, +70% QoQ). The rise came despite booking enormous FX losses and translation differences of EGP689 mn during the quarter. OLFI is currently trading at a FY24 P/E of 7.7x.

CNFN (FV:EGP8.45, OW) released positive 4Q23 results:

•                  Bottom-line recorded EGP261 million (+49% y/y, +111% q/q), bringing FY23 bottom-line to EGP692 million (+36% y/y). 

•                  We downgraded our FV to EGP8.45/share from EGP11.00/share and maintained our Overweight recommendation on an, reflecting the expected risks of higher interest rates, higher provisioning, and unstable macro-conditions. 

•                  CNFN is currently trading at P/B24 of 1.4x and P/E24 of 7.4x.

OFH BoD have decided to appoint Prime Capital as an independent financial advisor (IFA) to determine OFH and BINV fair values and communicate them to the shareholders 5 working days before the MTO expires.

According to local media, TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) launched its Banan project in Riyadh.

TAQA targets acquiring natural gas filling stations operator in Mozambique before the end of 1H24. The company is allocating USD200-250k for expansions in Mozambique. 

The government has awarded 11 concessions to five international energy players to explore for natural gas in the western Mediterranean region. The companies are BP, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Chevron, and Shell, while Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala will partake via an indirect agreement with one of the primary companies. Exploration is scheduled to start between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. This is expected to increase Egypt’s natural gas production capacity by 25% after one year from starting exploration.

Shelf Drilling was awarded a USD51 million, two-year contract extension for an oil rig in the Gulf of Suez with Egypt’s Gemsa Petroleum, according to a statement from Shelf.