Predictability Is My North Star

Velocity said “healthy.”
The system said “unhealthy.”
I chose to trust the system.

For six straight Sprints, the velocity chart looked great. Every Sprint, the team hit the number. Every review, the dashboard showed green.

And yet… the last couple of Sprints felt bad.

Work thrashed. Priorities shifted. Unplanned items kept sneaking in. The team was exhausted, and I needed a way to explain why the system felt chaotic when the metric insisted everything was fine.

That was the moment I realized velocity wasn’t telling me the truth. I needed a better way to understand what was happening. I needed a way to see what went wrong and account for the change.

That’s when Predictability Became My North Star.

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