A Plan is Not a Commitment - Mike Cohn
One of the fastest ways leaders create overcommitment is by treating a plan like a guarantee.
An agile team builds its plan from what it knows at the time: assumptions, estimates, priorities, and constraints. That means every plan is probabilistic. It has some chance of coming true, but that chance is not 100%.
That is why I coach teams to aim for about 80% success.
Aim much higher than that, and teams will often bring too little into the plan. Aim much lower, and others in the organization do not get the predictability they need to make their own plans.
So yes, it is fine to ask a team for a commitment. But the team determines what they can commit to.
And leaders need to understand what that requires.
A team asked for a commitment will include a margin of safety between its plan and its commitment. It has to. A commitment has to survive interruptions, surprises, dependencies, and the normal friction that shows up once work begins.
That means a commitment needs margin.
And margin is the part leaders often resist.
A team may plan to complete forty points of work. That does not mean they should commit to forty.
If they commit to all forty, they are assuming very little will go wrong.
That is not a real commitment. It is simply hoping the plan goes perfectly.
Real commitment is what the team can stand behind, even when the sprint is not perfect.
So if you want an honest commitment, do not ask the team to commit without changing anything else.
Ask instead:
- What could you commit to with confidence?
- What margin do you need?
- What would have to be true for this to be a real commitment instead of a hopeful plan?
Those questions force the real tradeoff into the open.
If the date is fixed, scope may need to flex.
If the scope is fixed, time may need to flex.
But something usually has to move.
That is the part leaders often skip. They hear a plan, silently upgrade it to a commitment, and then act surprised when the team misses it.
Do not do that.
A plan is useful. A commitment is valuable. But they are not interchangeable.
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