Confident predictions are often wrongEarly adopters don’t represent everyoneTreat predictions as one possible futureScenario planning > trying to be rightFocus on patterns, not hype00:00 – The problem with future predictions04:00 – Why experts get it wrong06:00 – Scenario planning explained12:00 – Early adopters vs. reality20:00 – AI, GUIs, and extreme takes27:00 – Using scenarios in product work34:00 – Final thoughtsWe’re in a period of change—but no one can predict exactly how it plays outStrong predictions often ignore uncertaintyTreat every prediction as a scenarioAsk: what else could happen?Use multiple futures to guide decisions“My experience = everyone’s future” thinkingOver-indexing on early adoptersIgnoring real-world constraintsRun quick scenario exercises with your teamPush ideas to extremes to explore implicationsExtract the underlying insight (not the exact prediction)Follow Teresa Torres: https://ProductTalk.org Follow Petra Wille: https://Petra-Wille.comMentioned in this episode:
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