True North Podcast

"Pref Analysis / Deep Dive" | True North Podcast | Ep. 42

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🧭 MSTR True North episode 42: The crew explores Bitcoin as corporate capital, synthetic yield, and how it’s driving in ovation in the credit markets. From mNAV to macro risk models, this episode highlights the process of building a balance sheet in a market that is build in a choric climate. 🎛️ As of this recording, 10/22/25, Strategy's (MSTR) performance:

  • Open: $293.02
  • Close: $280.81
  • Volume: 15,129,500 Shares
  • mNAV: 1.29
  • Market Cap: $80.64B
  • U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 132
  • BTC: 640,418
    • ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:
  • 00:00:00 - Cue the music: Intro, agenda and NFA
  • 00:05:15 - Early market signal: Bitcoin undervaluation and upside
  • 00:07:20 - Rate environment shift: Lower yields boost preferreds
  • 00:09:48 - Regulatory barriers: Regulators globally blocking BTC treasuries
  • 00:11:51 - Treasury structures: Treasuries taking advantage of premiums and complex warrants
  • 00:13:23 - Balance sheet leverage: 102K BTC, $69B in assets
  • 00:17:15 - Perpetual preferreds: Yield spreads and call dynamics
  • 00:23:47 - Synthetic yield: Preferreds as digital labor
  • 00:32:10 - BTC income engine: Arbitrage between growth and cost
  • 00:37:19 - Physical vs digital labor: Lessons from real-world work with Tim Kotzman
  • 00:42:04 - Backtest results: $1M BTC generates $5.5M income
  • 00:55:11 - Lognormal model: Baseline for BTC risk modeling
  • 00:57:01 - Jump & GARCH models: Simulating BTC shocks and volatility clusters
  • 01:05:14 - Probabilistic outcomes: The path to a quadrillion dollar valuation
  • 01:10:50 - New issuance strategy: Risk curves for preferreds
  • 01:15:14 - Pension disruption thesis: Preferreds as value innovation
  • 01:16:00 - Capital sourcing: Investor interest with conditions
  • 01:23:21 - Store-of-value thesis: Bitcoin as capital
  • 01:24:40 - Innovation advantage: Gunpowder, Bitcoin, and open systems
  • 01:28:27 - Bitcoin credit blueprint: Bonds, insurance, and refinanced debt
  • 01:31:31 - Digital treasury shift: Bitcoin adoption accelerating fast and the robotaxi moment
  • 01:35:35 - Final thoughts: Solei’s wisdom on display, mispriced risk and importance of education
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    • Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.
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