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Shift4 is one of the fastest-growing payment companies in the world, processing >$150 billion dollars in transactions for restaurants, hotels, stadiums, and retailers. Through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions, the company has rapidly expanded its footprint, but questions remain about its aggressive strategy, leverage, and capital allocation decisions...

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Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

You can also find us on:

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 Last month, I visited Disneyland Paris together with my girlfriend. Going to Disneyland isn’t a monthly or yearly trip for most of us. Therefore, I thought it would be a perfect opportunity to analyze The Walt Disney Company this month. This was a great idea because I mentioned I experienced the 'Disney Magic' not only as a visitor of the parks but was also able to look at it from an investor's point of view.

 Speaking of perspective, we have to clarify the Disney Parks aren’t the most important segment for Disney in terms of revenue. In fiscal year 2025, around 38% of Disney's revenue was thanks to its 'Experiences' segment. If we look at operating income, Disney's magical parks become more important with 57% of the group's operating income. That's why it was meaningful to visit the park as an adult and see why people visit Disneyland. 

The other 43% is largely thanks to its ‘Entertainment’ division, where Disney hosts its non-sports-focused global film and ‘episodic’ content production. Think of services like Disney+ and Hulu, but also linear networks such as ABC Network, Disney, and National Geographic. The remaining turnover comes from Disney’s ESPN brand, where they have various sports programming rights. Think of the NFL, NBA, Wimbledon, and, most critical to me, the Dutch Eredivisie. Yes, I have a subscription at ESPN to watch matches of my favorite football club, Ajax. 

Disney is an absolute beast in storytelling and building fascinating characters and brands. However, their stock performance has been a disaster lately. Since the 27th of January 2015, the stock has been down 1%. Ouch. What’s left is a dividend payout of around 1% yearly. You could have earned more return on your savings account. Clearly, there is a lot to discuss about this magical company. As Winnie the Pooh would say, “Let’s go on an adventure.”

Disclaimer:
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Shelly Group is a Bulgarian technology company that specializes in offering smart home solutions. So , it competes with the likes of Google, Amazon, and Samsung in this market. Tough competition, right? 

So, why would I analyze Shelly Group, then? I actually found the company by running a stock screener with criteria on gross profit margins, insider ownership, net margins, and ROIC. The numbers speak for themselves. I thought to myself, with these numbers, there must be something special about this company. That’s exactly what I’m going to find out during this analysis. 

The 2025 numbers are as follows:
Gross Profit Margin: 57.7%
Net Profit Margin: 17%
ROIC 5-year average: 39.8%
Revenue Growth 5 yr: 44.6%
Insiders own half of the company

To be honest, I’m pretty enthusiastic about the extent to which Shelly’s customers can automate their homes. For example, via Shelly’s premium app, users can easily automate lighting or locking features. For example, when the toilet door gets opened, the light must turn on. The application can detect devices that are on if you left the house, such as the oven or the television. You can speak to its AI assistant in any language, something even Amazon is not offering yet. 

Shelly operates both via installers, for example, for new construction projects, as well as direct-to-consumer. To be honest, you must be a bit of a geek to install Shelly’s products, such as relays and switches, yourself. But yes, how cool to fully automate your home. 

While I’m writing this introduction, I’m listening to Shelly’s FY 2025 investor call. They talk a lot about how to fend off competition like Amazon. So, you will definitely see a competitor analysis here. Let’s explore this interesting and little-known company!

Enjoy the episode! 

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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There is a small city in the Netherlands, called Deventer. It is a medieval city known for its printing history and its gingerbread. What many people don’t know is that it’s home to one of Europe’s most interesting VMS serial acquirer compounding machines: Topicus.com.

As we know, vertical market software businesses have been subject to huge market pressure lately. The question is whether the worries of investors are grounded or not. Topicus isn’t just any VMS company; it has a well-known brother that delivered investors a 13,700% return since 2006: Constellation Software. 

In the acquisition announcement in 2020, Mark Leonard understated the rare organic success of Topicus: "I cannot think of another vertical market software company that has achieved Topicus' size without using outside shareholder funding."

Since its listing in 2021, Topicus has grown revenues from roughly €600 million to €1.5 billion in 2025, with a significant acceleration in 2025 driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of Cipal Schaubroeck, a Belgian local government software provider. More recently, the company made an even bolder move: taking a 24.8% stake in Asseco Poland, an fascinating serial acquirer based in Poland.

Now, let’s learn more about Topicus, its business model, capital allocation strategy, and the involvement of Constellation Software. Let’s answer the most important question: is the share price drop justified? 

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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One of the first things I do when analyzing a company is go through the latest annual report. What immediately stood out to me were the covers in which Brown & Brown presented their annual reports (see picture down below).

Almost every cover consists of a cheetah, sometimes with its prey. The cheetah is a symbol of Brown & Brown’s culture: “Constantly doing what’s best for our customer, requires constant persistence and vision. The cheetah, which represents vision, swiftness, strength, and agility, embodies our company culture and has served as a symbol for Brown & Brown since the 1980s.”

Besides making use of this animal in a smart way, Brown & Brown supports cheetah conservation and the work of ‘The Cheetah Conservation Fund’.

This cheetah approach has repaid the company well. Brown & Brown’s stock price has risen from $0.30 in 1986 to around $80 at the moment of writing this report. That translates to an increase of over 26,000%, or a 260-bagger.

Now, what kind of company is Brown & Brown actually? Brown & Brown is an American-based insurance company active in retail, programs, and wholesale brokerage. It doesn’t solely operate in the United States but has evolved to become a global insurance company with operations in Hong Kong, France, Italy, Malaysia, and Germany, among others. Because the company has lost 1/3rd of its market cap lately, it seems like a perfect moment to analyze the business. 

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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The PayPal Mafia, founders such as Peter Thiel and Elon Musk who once dominated Silicon Valley, built a legacy of disruption. But that pioneering spirit has long since faded.

Today, PayPal is no longer a nimble innovator. Instead, it has become an institutional giant fighting a two-front war to remain relevant. On the consumer side, the once-dominant PayPal button is losing its frictionless advantage to Apple Pay and Google Pay, which are embedded directly into smartphone hardware. Meanwhile, its merchant-focused Braintree division is locked in a war of attrition with Adyen and Stripe as payments become increasingly commoditized.

Despite losing roughly 80% of its market value since 2021, PayPal remains a formidable cash-generating machine. In this deep-dive podcast and 40+ page report, we examine the industry, assess PayPal’s competitive advantages, and confront the central question: Is PayPal a genuine turnaround story, or a falling knife still in free fall?

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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 Today, we’re looking at a company that is polarizing the investing community: Chapters Group AG. Some call it the 'German Constellation Software.

Chapters Group has long been a company I’d like to analyze. Not just because of the company itself, but also because of the market it’s operating in: the VMS market. While I own the serial acquirer Teqnion, it isn’t a VMS company. This officially is the first time I've analyzed a VMS serial acquirer.

I’ve spoken to several people close to the management team, and talked to several knowledgeable people who were kind enough to help me. With that info, I put together this 34-page company analysis (and this short podcast).

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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Some companies always seem too expensive. The company we’ll discuss today, Lotus Bakeries, is one of them. Lotus Bakeries, from now on ‘Lotus’, is a Belgian family-owned snack company. Their most renowned product is the Lotus Biscoff cookie (they are delicious). Marketing is everything in the world of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and Lotus has mastered the game with the strong brands they have built over the decades. 

The company sells its products in over 70 countries worldwide, focuses on natural ingredients, and aims to sell delicious but healthy snacks. The company doesn’t do this alone; they close partnerships with brands like Cote d’Or and Milka to create new taste experiences for consumers.

Fun fact: From June 2024 to June 2025, Lotus sold 11.9 billion Lotus Biscoff cookies.

The company currently trades at a market capitalization of around €6 billion, but the stock price has declined by over 28% in the past year. Therefore, the company might be attractive at current price points. So, grab yourself a coffee with a Lotus Biscoff cookie, and enjoy this analysis. 

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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Our final deep dive of 2025. So we decided to make it a little more special with an extra hour-long deep dive with Niklas from Heavy Moat Investments.

Most investors spend their time studying companies they see every day... apps on their phone, brands in the supermarket, platforms they use at work. But some of the world’s most important technology operates in the shadows. This company is helping with criminal investigations, counter-terrorism cases, and national security work in over 150 countries.

Every minute, somewhere in the world, a detective, analyst, or federal agent opens a Cellebrite device to unlock data from a phone, extract evidence from an encrypted app, or connect digital clues that lead to an arrest. Their tools have appeared in high-profile cases, supported major police departments, like the FBI and CIA, and have become essential inside agencies most of us will never interact with.

Enjoy this deep dive into Cellebrite.

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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Exor is an Italian holding company that is owned by Italy’s richest family: the Agnelli’s. The family, through Giovanni Agnelli, still has over 85% of the voting rights. Almost 40% of Exor’s gross asset value consists of its stake in Ferrari. Other investments that might be familiar to you are football club Juventus, car manufacturer Stellantis and luxury company Christian Loboutin. 

The interesting part about investing in family-owned holding companies like Exor is that you can benefit from the capital allocation skills and long-term vision of the management just by sitting in your lazy chair. I remember one quote, and I can’t find which super investor stated it. In my mind, it was Buffett, but I could be wrong. Anyway, it went like, “If you’re considering buying a specific company, ask yourself the question: Would I still buy this stock if I invested 25% of my family’s money in it?” If the answer is still yes, then it’s more likely you found a high-quality company.” 

Investing in family-run businesses gives you this advantage. Of course, the Agnelli family aims to stay the richest family in Italy. Their interest is not to lose money but to compound it over time. In this analysis, we’ll explore how the company allocates capital, if it uses leverage, and what its future perspectives are. 

An analysis of a company active in sports cars, football, luxury and heavy trucks; you got to love it. Or, at least I do. 🙂

Disclaimer:
Nothing in this podcast can be considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. We may hold positions in the businesses discussed. Do your own research.

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