Trying to figure out when you will be ready to ship is incredibly challenging. Many Scrum teams track historic velocity, or story points completed in a Sprint, and then use the average number of points completed per Sprint as a way of making an educated guess as to when they could deliver when they’d expect to deliver a certain number of story points in the future. There are, however, many who feel that this approach is no better than just making a completely random guess, and there is evidence to support the value in taking a different approach.

In this episode of The Reluctant Agilist, Troy Lightfoot explains his approach to Probabilistic Forecasting, what it is, why it matters, and how it is a better way of planning than using a more traditional approach.

Books Recommended In the Podcast:

Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - Dan Vacanti https://amzn.to/2HT1zfe

When will it be done? - Dan Vacanti https://leanpub.com/whenwillitbedone

Principle of Product of Development Flow - Don Reinterson https://amzn.to/2M989DD

Tools mentioned in the podcast:

Throughput and cycle time calculator:  http://focusedobjective.com/free-tools-resources/

Actionable Agile http://actionableagile.com

Agile Uprising

Agile Uprising http://agileuprising.com

Contacting Troy

Twitter: https://twitter.com/g4stroy

Web: http://agileuprising.com/bod/troy-lightfoot/

http://www.cookingandketones.com