The matchup between the Essendon Bombers and Adelaide Crows is set to be a fascinating contest, with the Bombers currently favored by 14.5 points and an over/under of 167.5 points. The Bombers have been on a downward trend, only covering the spread once in the last eight weeks, reflecting their struggles. Their recent performances have been lackluster, and their efficiency has been hampered by issues in the backline. On the other hand, the Crows, despite not being in contention for finals, have shown an upward trend, covering the spread in their last three games, all of which they won. The Crows have been more efficient in scoring, and they might be able to exploit the Bombers' defensive weaknesses, particularly with key injuries such as Isaac Rankin's suspension until Round 22 and long-term absences of Matt Crouch, Wayne Milera, Luke Pedlar, and Josh Worrell. The Bombers are still dealing with injuries to key players like Darcy Parish, who is out with a calf injury, and Zach Reid, who might not return this season. Both teams are 2-3 over the last five weeks, making this a crucial game for the Bombers, who are eyeing a finals spot.
When examining disposals for the Bombers, several key players stand out. Zach Merrett is a consistent performer, with an over/under of 29.5 touches and available at $1.30 for 25 touches. Sam Durham, who bounced back last week, is a good pick at $1.42 for 20 touches, despite his over/under being set at 22.5. Nick Martin has been reliable, with 25 touches at $1.55, showing consistency with 26, 23, and 27 disposals in the past three games. Jye Caldwell also offers good value at $1.65 for 25 touches, having recorded 23, 30, 32, and 26 touches in recent games. For anytime goal scorers, Jade Gresham, at $1.65, is a solid choice, despite not scoring last week, he has 13 goals from 29 shots this season. Mack Weideman, at $1.35, is another strong candidate, typically good for at least one goal each week, with 15 goals from 28 shots this season. While Kyle Langford and Jake Stringer are options for multiple goals, the value appears stronger in the single-goal bets for Gresham and Weideman #AFLDonsCrows 😎🔥💰✅ #afl #footy #sports
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