Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

Is the UK property market really dead? Chris Watkin's real-time data says no. It's slow, choosy and oversupplied, but still agreeing sales at around 92% of the normal rate.

This week Adam works through the numbers behind the crash talk. The budget lands on Wednesday 28th October, and markets are pricing roughly an 80% chance of a rate rise on 5th November. With the 10-year gilt at 5.45% and five-year swaps at 4.73%, new mortgage debt is heading for 6.5% to 6.75%. That's why a property yielding about 6.75% gross, on a 3.28% mortgage with a year left to run, has gone on the sell list.

Also this week: the IFS's £36bn gap, mansion tax and the triple lock. Kensington and Chelsea prices down 26% since September 2022, and why the exit tax question may be behind it. Flat Lloyds prices, a RICS price balance of minus 32, and PMIs still growing but not hiring.

Then the deep dive: who's really paying the rent? The Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Onward have rival plans for local housing allowance, one with rent controls attached and one without. There's also Awaab's Law and the pension money moving into build to rent.

It opens with Nye Bevan in 1946, on being judged in ten years' time by the type of houses we build. It closes, as ever, with KCCO.

In this episode: (00:00) Rates bite: Bevan, the housebuilders and landlords selling (11:00) Budget countdown: the £36bn gap, mansion tax, triple lock (19:00) Polling after conference season (21:00) Trump watch: diesel, Iran and the midterms (28:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: is the market dead? (32:00) Kensington's 26% fall and the exit tax question (39:00) PMIs, Lloyds and RICS: flat prices, weak sentiment (52:00) Gilts, swaps and the 6.75% backstop (68:00) Deep dive: LHA, rent controls, JRF vs Onward (83:00) Awaab's Law, enforcement and build to rent (89:00) KCCO sign-off

▶ Next workshop: Property Business Workshop 13, Birmingham, Thursday 7th January 2027 Adam and Rod Turner spend a full day on strategic planning, productivity, systems and processes, and financial management, bookkeeping and reporting. It's a chance to start 2027 with your numbers in order, a few weeks after the budget has rewritten some of them. The super early bird offer is on now: a genuine 20% off face value. Book here: www.tinyurl.com/AdamRod27

* * * Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

Is the UK housing market rolling over? Sales agreed are slipping, the 30-year gilt has broken 6% and help to buy is back. This week Adam works through what it all means for house prices, mortgage rates and your next move.

The short answer is not yet. Chris Watkin's real-time numbers show 96,500 UK sales agreed in September. That is around 6 to 7% down on the last two years, but still nearly 10% ahead of 2023. Adam's line in the sand is a 20% drop in transactions, held for a few weeks. Until then this looks like a stall, not a slump. Adjusted for RPI inflation, house prices are now the cheapest since Q4 2002.

Then the macro-scope. Newly drawn mortgages are costing 4.6% against 4% on the outstanding book, and that gap is widening again. The 30-year gilt touched 6.073%, its highest since 1998, and markets see a rate rise on 5th November as more likely than not. Adam explains why his working assumption for new borrowing sits at 6.5 to 6.75%, arrangement fees included.

The deep dive is the deposit, the debt and the discipline. Help to buy 2.0 means a 2.5% deposit, a 20% government equity loan and a 77.5% mortgage. Adam unpicks what a saving of around £350 a month really costs you, what the evaluation of the old scheme found, and why "fiscal discipline is the rock" needs evidencing in the budget on 28th October rather than just saying. People behave as they are incentivised, as Charlie Munger had it.

In this episode: (00:00) The party is over: Crosland, Healey and the week's data (12:00) Trump watch: Iran, diesel and the crack spread (25:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: is the market rolling over? (39:00) The macro-scope: new lending vs the backbook (48:00) The Decision Maker Panel and the 3% world (52:00) Gilts break 6%, and what money will cost (58:00) PBW13 Birmingham: the next workshop (1:01:00) Deep dive: the deposit, the debt and the discipline (1:05:00) "Fiscal discipline is the rock": Healey, Burnham and the budget (1:27:00) Help to buy 2.0: what the saving really costs (1:31:00) Old help to buy evaluated, and Lloyds on affordability (1:39:00) Your questions and KCCO

▶ Next workshop: PBW13, Birmingham, Thursday 7th January 2027 Adam and Rod Turner start the year with a full day on strategic planning, productivity, systems and processes, and financial management and reporting. Round tables, real deals and real numbers, with the VIP dinner as your chance for proper one-to-one time with them both. Super early bird tickets carry a genuine 20% discount. Book here: https://www.tinyurl.com/AdamRod27

* * * Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

John Healey's surprise Treasury, Chris Watkin's real-time numbers, and rent controls back on the table.

Burnham's in, Starmer's gone, and John Healey is the surprise new chancellor - but for property the real question isn't who runs the country, it's what a new Treasury means for UK mortgage rates and house prices. This week Adam works through the cabinet reshuffle, softening inflation, and a market quietly repricing in real terms. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean.

There's a surprise CPI drop to unpick, a five-year swap creeping the wrong way, Chris Watkin's real-time withdrawal and pricing numbers, rent controls openly back on the exploration list, and a Molly report on London new-build that lands like a warning shot - 589 people bought a new home in the whole of London in three months. Add a land value tax that could reshape the game for a 710-unit portfolio, and there's plenty to settle.

In this episode: (00:00) Surprise inflation drop - framing the week (07:00) Healey's the shock chancellor - the Burnham cabinet (19:00) Trump watch and the world economy (30:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: the withdrawal coin-flip (42:00) The macro-scope: GDP, construction and rents (51:00) Buy-to-let lending: the amateur sells, the operator buys (58:00) Guilty or Not: guilts, swaps and 6% money (66:00) Workshop - JV & M&A, Manchester, 1 October (70:00) Deep dive: planned or unplanned - Mansion House, rent controls, London new-build (93:00) Seed questions: should you wait for Healey's budget? (104:00) KCCO - sign-off

▶ Next workshop - Property Business Workshop, central Manchester, Thursday 1 October: Join Adam and Rod Turner for a full day on joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions - how to structure a JV that survives contact with reality, how to buy companies rather than just houses, and the classic blowups to avoid. Super Early Bird is a genuine 20% off and more than half the VIP dinner tickets are already gone. Book at www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26 or use the link below. Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

Andy Burnham wants to tax the land under our feet. This week Adam works through the land value tax - the maths, the politics, and what it would really mean for the UK property market, landlords and house prices. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers.

There's £7.1 trillion of UK land value on the table, a compulsory purchase threat aimed at landlords, a possible re-engineering of capital gains tax, and an England that's on course to build just 56% of its housing target. Plus Chris Watkin's real-time data - 45.2% of homes leaving estate agents' books unsold - a Trump watch on the digital services tax, and swaps closing under the 4% handle.

In this episode:

(00:00) Workshop week & the big numbers of the week (07:00) Land value tax: does the maths add up? (11:00) Re-engineering capital gains tax? (14:00) Next workshop - JVs & M&A in Manchester (20:00) Trump watch: digital services tax vs tariffs (25:00) Social homes: 18k a year built, 90k needed (29:00) Reform or raid? Council tax & the north-south unfairness (33:00) Compulsory purchase: combat or collaboration? (37:00) Why the state still needs private landlords (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: unsold stock & the pricing gap (43:00) The macro blast: swaps under 4%, PMIs & prices (47:00) KCCO - sign-off

▶ Next workshop - PBW12, Manchester, Thursday 1 October: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on joint ventures and mergers & acquisitions - real-life case studies, how the deals were structured, how they got through the legals, and how to add value to your balance sheet quickly and sensibly. Book here: https://www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26 - or Google "Property Business Workshop 12". Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean.

There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook converging on new lending rates, Chris Watkin's real-time market data on the withdrawal rate and pricing gap, and a land value tax that could reshape the whole game for a 710-unit portfolio. Plus Trump watch, the macro-scope on mortgage pricing, the "3% world" and the debt, and what Adam is actually buying at 65p in the pound right now.

In this episode: (00:00) Kemi's out, Burnham's in - framing the week (08:00) Will there be a general election? Runners and riders (24:00) The real question: who is the next chancellor? (34:00) Trump watch & the world economy (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: withdrawal rate & pricing gap (52:00) Mortgage backbook vs new lending (66:00) Inflation, the debt & the "3% world" (78:00) Land value tax: what half a percent really means (84:00) What Adam is buying right now (89:00) KCCO - sign-off

▶ Next workshop - PBW11, central London: Join Adam and Rod for a full day on due diligence - on deals, on JV partners, and on the diligence people will run on you. The only real chance to grab proper time with us. Grab a VIP dinner ticket while they last. Google "Property Business Workshop 11" or use the link in the show notes.

Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

Workshop: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why.

Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts.

Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity."

The Real-Time Market - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead.

The Inflation Attitude Survey - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print.

The Gilts and the MPC Call - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind.

No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date.

Part two covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next.

Property Business Workshop - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven

Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.

Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted.

Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked first-time buyers into sub-4% rates has finally run out, and the new world of 4.75 to 5% is quietly pricing people out. First-time buyers are still 55% of the market, so when their borrowing power drops, everything feels it.

Also in this one:

• TrumpWatch: how the Iran situation and the oil price are setting inflation expectations and feeding straight into UK swaps

• The five-year swap's run up towards 4.4% and back, the 30-year gilt near 5.5%, and why deals are now being modelled on 6 to 6.1% money

• The supply glut explained: over-instruction, only 54% of listings actually selling, and a 25% gap between asking and agreed prices

• Why nominal house prices are a nonsense, and how, adjusted for RPI, we're sitting back at Q1 2003

• The gearing-up versus gearing-down trap, and a few honest words on what Rich Dad Poor Dad got wrong about "good debt"

• London: 20, 30, even 40% discounts appearing, and why this might be the best buying window in a decade if the yield can be made to work

• The Labour leadership question, the Makerfield by-election, and what a Burnham win (and his choice of chancellor) could mean for landlords, from a Torsten Bell land value tax to a steadier Pat McFadden

• A grounded look at rent controls, what Scotland's "rent cap" actually did, and the difference between stabilisation and a 1970s rent officer

Plus a word on the upcoming Property Business Workshop in central London, the only day in the UK dedicated to due diligence, run with Rod Turner and this time with special guest Claude alongside for the live due diligence exercise. Booking link: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

Read the full Supplement every Sunday on LinkedIn and the Property & Poppadoms website. Keep calm, carry on, and come back every Sunday.

Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided?

***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven***

In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market.

I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020.

Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets?

If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week.

👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇

In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover:

Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout.

The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold.

Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide.

Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up.

Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in.

The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions.

⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live!

02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates

12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic

20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing

28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide

36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering

45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs

51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%?

55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords

1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets

***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven***

Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium

Show Notes:

Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium."

We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now.

We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle.

If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers.

CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS:

• Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines

• The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy

• What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives)

• The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance

• The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now

• Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027

• Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?)

• Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring

• Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement

RESOURCES & LINKS:

🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven

📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ

✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/

💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/

ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE:

Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets.

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The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement.

We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them.

What we cover in this week's episode:

• Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month .

• The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 .

• Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% .

• Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties .

• Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% .

• The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again .

• Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead .

This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress .

Listen now on all major platforms.