Protein Pulse Podcast

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, October 21st. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody wants to talk about opening more crossings for Mexican cattle. That's worth watching, but opening a gate doesn't put finished cattle on the rail tomorrow. USDA is moving toward additional cattle-entry points while Washington considers incentives to retain breeding heifers. One could expand feeder availability. The other could keep more females out of the immediate beef pipeline. Meanwhile, imported lean is telling its own story. Domestic cow slaughter is down, but imported trimming values have been under pressure. More than one supply channel determines what processors actually pay. Price the cattle available, not the cattle promised.

HOST: Choice advanced one seventy-two to three seventy-three thirty. Select rose one sixty-three to three sixty-one fifty-four. Imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast. Pork cutout at seventy-eight fifty-three, down eighty-six cents. Bellies at eighty-nine sixty-seven. Chicken breast at one seventeen. Thigh at one seventy-three.

SHAWN: Columbus is scheduled to reopen October 26th. Nogales is conditionally targeted for November 30th. Australia has hit its reported annual beef-import quota. Kayem is recalling about one point five eight million pounds. Margin is determined by actual product economics, not the headline direction of the market. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 21st, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody wants to talk about opening more crossings for Mexican cattle. That's worth watching, but opening a gate doesn't put finished cattle on the rail tomorrow. We've got two different things happening. USDA is moving toward additional cattle-entry points while Washington considers incentives to retain breeding heifers. One could expand feeder availability. The other could keep more females out of the immediate beef pipeline. Meanwhile, imported lean is telling its own story. Domestic cow slaughter is down, but imported trimming values have been under pressure. More than one supply channel determines what processors actually pay. That's the part of this business that gets lost when everybody starts trading headlines instead of product. Cattle availability, import origin, grade, yield and delivery terms all have a price. Price the cattle available, not the cattle promised.

HOST: Tuesday's Choice and Select beef cutouts advanced alongside cattle futures. Mexican cattle-crossing reopenings offer future supply possibilities, while proposed heifer-retention incentives introduce competing pressures. Imported lean remains competitive despite reduced domestic cow slaughter. Platts reports steady-to-softer imported nineties prices and substantial South American competition. Australia's reported annual beef-import quota utilization adds another consideration for forward coverage. The pork cutout declined while bellies strengthened. Stephens Inc. reports constrained hog supplies alongside weaker domestic demand and reduced Mexican purchasing, pressuring packer profitability. Chicken prices diverged by part, while Brazilian poultry access to the European Union remains under consideration. A federal emergency distillate-reserve exchange addresses Northeastern supply concerns. USDA also announced additional soybean export sales to China and Spain.

SHAWN: USDA APHIS scheduled Columbus, New Mexico, to reopen to Mexican cattle imports October 26th, with Nogales, Arizona, conditionally targeted for November 30th. Actual volumes, weights, health clearance and transportation will determine commercial availability. The proposed BRAND heifer-retention insurance endorsement introduces another consideration. Retaining breeding females supports future herd expansion but reduces their availability for immediate feeding and slaughter. Tuesday's Choice boxed-beef cutout increased one seventy-two to three seventy-three thirty. Select rose one sixty-three to three sixty-one fifty-four. The Choice Select spread was eleven seventy-six. Choice rib stood at six seventy-seven twelve and chuck at three twenty-nine fifty-five. USDA estimated Tuesday cattle slaughter at one hundred twelve thousand head, against one hundred ten thousand the previous Tuesday and a year-earlier actual of one hundred sixteen thousand eight hundred sixty-four. December live cattle futures settled at a reported two thirty seventeen, up two fifteen, while January feeder cattle settled at three forty-two sixty-two, up two seventy. Platts assessed imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast for thirty-to-sixty-day shipment on October 19th, unchanged on the day and down four cents from the prior week. Its F-C-A East Coast assessment was three oh five for sixteen-to-sixty-day delivery. Platts reported competitive South American supply and cautious nearby buying interest as importers managed inventories. Domestic cow slaughter remains constrained, but imported availability is influencing replacement costs. The report cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection data showing Australian beef imports had reached three hundred seventy-eight thousand two hundred fourteen metric tons, the reported annual quota threshold, as of October 13th. Tariff treatment for subsequent shipments depends on the governing quota and eligibility rules. USDA's October 20th domestic negotiated report placed fresh eighty-fives at two eighty-seven and fresh fifties at eighty-eight. Domestic fresh trim and imported frozen lean remain separate markets.

HOST: USDA's pork carcass cutout declined eighty-six cents to seventy-eight fifty-three Tuesday. Loins fell two fifty-three to seventy-nine eighty-two. Ribs lost three seventy-three to one forty-four thirty-one. Butts declined two fifty-six to one oh three oh eight. Bellies rose two seventy-four to eighty-nine sixty-seven, while picnics gained seventy-two cents to sixty-four sixty-eight. Hams declined one fifty-eight to sixty-three sixty-nine. National negotiated hogs averaged sixty-five ninety-four, down three sixty-six. Estimated slaughter was four hundred ninety-three thousand head, compared with a prior-week estimate of four hundred ninety-six thousand. December lean hog futures settled at a reported sixty-seven fifteen, up eighty cents, despite weakness in cash hogs and the carcass cutout. Stephens Inc., in analysis reported by Meatingplace on October 20th, describes constrained hog supplies alongside softer demand. High beef prices have not produced the degree of pork substitution some market participants anticipated. USDA NASS reported September 1st hog and pig inventory at approximately seventy-four point three million head, down about two percent year over year on the agency's rounded comparison. Stephens also identifies weaker purchasing from Mexico and softer domestic consumption as pressures on pork markets. The analyst expects those conditions to weigh on packer profitability in the near term. Export demand remains critical to carcass utilization. Tighter hog availability combined with uneven product demand presents a more consequential challenge than the direction of the daily cutout alone.

SHAWN: USDA's October 12th to 16th weekly chicken report placed boneless skinless breast at one seventeen, down one seventy-five. Boneless skinless thighs averaged one seventy-three, up five thirty-eight. Tenders averaged one eleven, down two oh six, while drumsticks rose four oh seven to fifty-seven. These differences affect purchasing economics across foodservice, retail and further-processing programs. Brazil's agriculture ministry reports that China restricts specified poultry originating in Santa Catarina following Newcastle disease developments. Mexico's restrictions cover designated Brazilian poultry products nationally, while Chile restricts specified Santa Catarina-origin products. Mundus Trade News reports that Brazil's possible reinstatement on the European Union's authorized poultry-export list was under consideration during the October 20th to 21st SCoPAFF committee session. No reinstatement decision has been confirmed. Authorization would provide another outlet for qualifying Brazilian poultry and could change availability across export destinations. In Canada, CFIA recorded an October 16th avian-influenza detection at a non-commercial poultry premises in Hanover, Manitoba. The U.S. Department of Energy announced an exchange solicitation for up to three hundred fifteen thousand barrels of Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with transfers or deliveries scheduled for completion by November 13th. DTN's October 21st report cited EIA data placing Northeastern commercial distillate inventories forty-one percent below year-earlier levels and forty-five percent below the five-year seasonal average. At approximately nine a.m. Eastern, DTN reported December West Texas Crude near ninety-seven thirty-four and November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel near four eighty-five. These are Wednesday intraday quotations, separate from Tuesday's settlements. December corn futures settled Tuesday at a reported four sixty-two, down five cents, while December soybean meal declined six ten to three forty-eight seventy. USDA reported corn harvest forty-four percent complete and soybeans sixty-four percent complete for the week ended October 18th, against five-year averages of fifty-two and sixty-five percent, respectively. Fuel availability, regional basis and transportation remain significant components of delivered protein and feed costs.

HOST: Platts reported Brazilian fresh and frozen beef shipments of one hundred seven thousand eight hundred thirty-five metric tons during the first eleven business days of October, citing preliminary Secex data. The average daily shipment rate was thirty-two point seven percent below the corresponding year-earlier period. At SIAL Paris, Brazilian exporters and Chinese buyers continued negotiations over front forequarter beef, with reported offers above several Chinese buying indications. Platts assessed its Brazil Beef Marker at six thousand nine hundred forty dollars per metric ton F-C-A Santos on October 19th, up one hundred dollars from its previous assessment. International beef demand continues to shape origin pricing and export allocation. USDA FAS announced October 21st export sales of one hundred thirty-four thousand metric tons of soybeans to China and one hundred sixty-five thousand metric tons to Spain for the 2026/27 marketing year. Those sales follow a separate October 20th Chinese purchase reported by Brownfield. They represent export commitments, not completed shipments. Soybean export demand, crush economics and meal availability remain variables for domestic feed costs. USDA's proposed BRAND heifer-retention insurance endorsement remains under consideration. Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber has questioned its potential effects on producer incentives and near-term cattle availability. The temporary U.S. lean-beef trimming tariff-rate quota expansion established additional monthly allocations, with the final allocation scheduled to close when filled or on November 30th, whichever comes first. Australian beef's reported quota utilization creates another origin-specific issue. Product classification, quota eligibility and applicable tariff treatment determine import economics. USDA announced eight billion dollars under its Harvest Fuel Relief program, with commodity-specific payment rates to follow. USDA FSIS also announced a recall of approximately one point five eight million pounds of Kayem ready-to-eat meat and poultry products because of possible temperature abuse. The notice reported no confirmed illnesses. Affected product identification, distribution records and inventory segregation are immediate operational priorities.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Imported lean. Compare South American, Australian and New Zealand supply by specification, origin, delivery period and landed cost. Beef. Choice and Select strengthened. Evaluate cut-specific replacement prices and actual cattle availability. Pork. Weak demand and constrained hog supplies pressure packer economics. Bellies strengthened against the declining cutout. Chicken. Breast and thigh prices diverged. Brazilian export eligibility remains destination-specific. Feed. Soybean export commitments add demand while corn and meal futures eased. Regional basis determines delivered prices. Fuel. Northeastern distillate inventories and emergency reserve exchanges affect freight-cost exposure. Trade and safety. Confirm lean-beef import treatment and reconcile Kayem recall inventory. Imported lean remains competitive despite lower domestic cow slaughter. Beef cutouts strengthened, pork packers face constrained supplies and soft demand, and chicken prices moved differently across parts. New soybean export commitments, regional distillate shortages and changing import access affect delivered costs. Margin is determined by actual product economics, not the headline direction of the market. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Wednesday Watchlist for October 21st. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, October 20th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here's what caught my attention Monday. Cattle cost more, processors ran more head, and Choice beef still lost ground. Select went the other direction. That's a difficult combination to manage. Packers have more product to sell, but higher cattle costs don't disappear because a customer refuses an offer. Pork is presenting a similar challenge. Bellies and hams weakened even with fewer hogs processed last week. In chicken, breasts and thighs are moving in opposite directions. The next change in buying leverage won't arrive evenly. It will show up in particular products, from particular suppliers, for particular delivery dates. I want to know who's holding the pounds, who's buying them, and how long each side can wait. That's where the next negotiation gets interesting.

HOST: Choice closed at three seventy-one fifty-eight, down seventy-three cents. Select gained six eighty-six to three fifty-nine ninety-one. Fresh nineties at three ninety F-O-B plant. Imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast. Pork cutout at seventy-nine thirty-nine. Bellies at eighty-six ninety-three. Chicken breast at one seventeen. Thigh at one seventy-three.

SHAWN: Brazil confirmed Newcastle disease in Santa Catarina turkeys. Mexico suspended poultry imports from Brazil. Kayem is recalling about one point five million pounds of ready-to-eat product. Two more screwworm cases in New Mexico. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 20th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here's what caught my attention Monday. Cattle cost more, processors ran more head, and Choice beef still lost ground. Select went the other direction. That's a difficult combination to manage. Packers have more product to sell, but higher cattle costs don't disappear because a customer refuses an offer. Pork is presenting a similar challenge. Bellies and hams weakened even with fewer hogs processed last week. In chicken, breasts and thighs are moving in opposite directions. Overseas, suppliers are competing for customers in markets that don't necessarily want the same products. None of those developments means the entire protein market is getting cheaper. They tell me something more useful. The next change in buying leverage won't arrive evenly. It will show up in particular products, from particular suppliers, for particular delivery dates. I want to know who's holding the pounds, who's buying them, and how long each side can wait. That's where the next negotiation gets interesting.

HOST: Brazil has confirmed Newcastle disease at a commercial turkey operation in Santa Catarina, triggering reported trade responses from important poultry customers. Separately, Reuters reports Chinese chicken exporters challenging established suppliers across several international markets. USDA FSIS announced a major Kayem ready-to-eat meat and poultry recall following a storage-temperature problem. New Mexico confirmed additional New World screwworm cases, keeping livestock surveillance and border-movement requirements in focus. In domestic markets, cash cattle prices strengthened while Choice boxed beef declined and Select advanced. Pork bellies and picnics weakened, and chicken breasts and thighs moved in opposite directions. U.S. pork export demand remains uneven by destination, while corn harvest progress trails historical levels.

SHAWN: USDA's latest five-area negotiated live F-O-B steer average reached two twenty-four nineteen, up from two twenty fourteen the previous reporting week. Dressed delivered steers advanced to three fifty-two fifty-two from three forty-five sixty-six. Choice boxed beef declined seventy-three cents to three seventy-one fifty-eight. Select gained six eighty-six to three fifty-nine ninety-one. The Choice Select spread narrowed to eleven sixty-seven. Choice ribs remained at six seventy-three fifty-nine. Steiner Consulting's latest Daily Livestock Report described strong seasonal rib demand as holiday buyers accumulated inventory. Its report also described improved packer margins following difficult summer conditions. Estimated cattle slaughter increased to five hundred fifty-three thousand head for the week ended October 17th, compared with five hundred thirty-five thousand the preceding week. The additional volume comes against a backdrop of reduced industry processing capacity and continued constraints on cattle supplies. Manufacturing beef moved differently from the boxed-beef grade market. USDA's national fresh F-O-B plant averages put nineties at three ninety, down six seventy, and eighty-fives at three sixteen, up thirty-five. Fresh fifties averaged ninety and sixty-fives one fifty-two. Imported frozen lean remains a separate sourcing market. Platts' October 16th frozen nineties assessments were three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast and three oh five F-C-A East Coast. Those port assessments differ in product condition and delivery basis from domestic fresh F-O-B plant quotations.

HOST: Brazilian Agriculture Minister André de Paula confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina. Authorities initiated containment measures and restrictions on bird movements around the affected operation. Reuters reported that Mexico suspended poultry imports from Brazil and that Brazilian industry association ABPA voluntarily halted exports to China pending clarification of trade requirements. The precise product and geographic scope of those measures remains subject to official destination-country documentation. The outbreak is an immediate export-access development for Brazil, a leading poultry supplier. The critical questions are whether restrictions remain localized, how quickly the outbreak is contained and when affected trade can resume. Separately, Reuters reported that Chinese poultry processors are increasing exports through competitive pricing and expanded processing capacity. An international trader described Chinese breast and leg-quarter offers ten to twenty percent below Brazilian alternatives in selected African markets. Chinese processors are also competing in European processed-poultry markets. The reported overseas quotations are not U.S. domestic chicken prices. Actual international order changes, customer specifications and trade eligibility will determine the commercial impact. Domestic chicken prices remain mixed. USDA's latest weekly averages placed boneless skinless breasts at one seventeen, down one seventy-five, and whole wings at one oh nine, down one twenty. Boneless skinless thighs increased five thirty-eight to one seventy-three, while bulk leg quarters averaged fifty-four. USDA's daily commentary described boneless breasts as weak, tenders and wings as soft, and dark meat as clearing well.

SHAWN: USDA's carcass cutout declined one sixteen to seventy-nine thirty-nine. Bellies fell four twenty-one to eighty-six ninety-three. Picnics lost three seventy-four to sixty-three ninety-six. Hams eased eighty-five cents to sixty-five twenty-seven. Loins and ribs strengthened. Estimated hog slaughter totaled two point five five three million head for the week ended October 17th, down from two point six one nine million the preceding week. Steiner Consulting reported that some planned processing may have been deferred because packers were having difficulty moving boxed pork. That remains Steiner's industry assessment, not a USDA-confirmed explanation for lower slaughter. The national negotiated barrow-and-gilt carcass-base quotation increased two fifty-one to sixty-nine sixty Monday. Negotiated hog purchases represent one purchasing category and should not be treated as a comprehensive packer-cost measure. Current wholesale business will determine whether the week's lower slaughter is followed by better product movement. Bellies and hams deserve particular attention because both weakened despite reduced processing.

HOST: USMEF reported August pork export volume to Mexico down twelve percent year over year. January through August shipments were three percent below the previous year's record pace. Central America recorded an eighteen percent August increase. January through August exports reached one hundred thirty thousand nine hundred eighty-seven metric tons, up eleven percent, valued at four hundred thirty-two point three million dollars, up fifteen percent. Colombia's August volume increased thirty-four percent. Those differences matter to exporters and processors managing destination-specific product demand. Growth in one region does not necessarily replace orders for the same cuts in another. USDA's Crop Progress report placed national corn harvest at forty-four percent, versus a fifty-two percent five-year average. Iowa reached twenty-six percent, compared with its fifty percent average. The delayed fieldwork is important for grain handlers, feed suppliers and livestock operations managing regional delivery schedules. It does not establish a national corn shortage. USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service announced a Class I recall involving approximately one point five eight four million pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry because of potential temperature abuse during storage. The affected products were distributed to retail and foodservice locations throughout the United States and to Hong Kong. FSIS reported that an investigation followed a complaint concerning warm product temperatures and identified warehouse-cooler deviations. Companies handling affected inventory should consult FSIS Recall zero two six dash two zero two six for the specific labels, establishment information, lots and disposition instructions. State animal-health authorities confirmed two more New World screwworm cases in Grant County, involving a horse and a calf. Surveillance and response activity expanded around the affected locations. The findings are relevant to animal-health controls and livestock movement, including the developing situation along the Mexican cattle border. They do not independently establish a new crossing closure or reopening. Current movement authorization must come from the responsible agencies.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Immediate recall exposure. Check inventories and shipments against the official Kayem affected-product list. Poultry trade. Confirm destination eligibility and current export arrangements where Brazilian restrictions affect contracted supplies. Beef and pork coverage. Obtain cut-specific offers and confirm actual available quantities and processing schedules, particularly for premium beef ribs and pork bellies and hams. Feed and logistics. Review local corn-delivery conditions, grain basis and refrigerated-freight quotations against upcoming commitments. What I'm watching. Official updates to Brazil's Newcastle disease restrictions and affected export destinations. Evidence of new international poultry orders moving toward Chinese suppliers. Further Kayem recall developments and distribution findings. Screwworm surveillance results and authorized cattle-movement changes. Wholesale beef availability following increased cattle slaughter. Pork plant schedules and belly and ham movement. Friday's Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. Brazil's Newcastle disease outbreak has already disrupted poultry trade arrangements. The next official decisions on export eligibility will determine how widely those restrictions extend and which customers must find alternative supplies. The Kayem recall demands immediate action across affected inventories and distribution channels. New Mexico's additional screwworm detections keep livestock movement and border surveillance firmly on the industry's agenda. In domestic markets, increased beef processing has not produced uniform wholesale price relief, and reduced hog slaughter has not lifted weak pork primals. Buyers should judge availability through current product offers rather than assume those market relationships have changed. Today's most consequential news is happening in processing plants, export markets and distribution channels as well as on the commodity boards. Those developments deserve the industry's attention before they become tomorrow's supply problems. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 20th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, October 19th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: It's always easier to paddle with the current than fight your way upstream. But take a look at these markets. We're not dealing with a lazy Sunday float down the river. We're in the middle of some raging rapids, and half the time you can't tell which direction the damn water is running. Everybody's got an opinion about where we're headed. The river doesn't care how smart you think you are, and being right on Monday doesn't mean a damn thing if you're broke by Friday. We can't control the current. But we sure as hell can control the decisions we make while we're in it. Make yours count this week.

HOST: Cash cattle entered the weekend with Southern bids at two twenty-eight. Choice boxed beef closed at three seventy-two, down one sixty-seven. Select at three fifty-three. Fresh nineties at three ninety-seven F-O-B plant. South American frozen nineties near three oh five at the port. Pork cutout recovered three cents to eighty-one. Chicken breast at one seventeen. Thigh at one seventy-three.

SHAWN: Two new screwworm cases in New Mexico put Columbus in question. No official reopening date. Don't count those cattle until it's confirmed. Ice Futures is planning competing livestock contracts for December 7th. The real test is liquidity, not the press release. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 19th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: It's always easier to paddle with the current than fight your way upstream. But take a look at these markets. We're not dealing with a lazy Sunday float down the river. We're in the middle of some raging rapids, and half the time you can't tell which direction the damn water is running. Everybody's got an opinion about where we're headed. Trouble is, the cattle market, the meat counter and the consumer's wallet aren't exactly reading from the same map. So who's going to get smashed against the rocks? Producers? Packers? Consumers? Maybe everybody gets a little wet before this thing settles down. The river doesn't care how smart you think you are, and being right on Monday doesn't mean a damn thing if you're broke by Friday. We can't control the current. But we sure as hell can control the decisions we make while we're in it. Make yours count this week.

HOST: Cash cattle strengthened heading into the weekend while Choice boxed beef declined, widening the disconnect between livestock procurement costs and wholesale beef returns. USDA's October outlook identified another important distinction. Domestic cow slaughter remains historically low, yet imported lean beef continues to pressure domestic processing-beef prices. Cattle scarcity is not producing uniform strength throughout the beef complex. The week's most consequential developing supply story is New World screwworm. Two additional cases confirmed in southwestern New Mexico have intensified uncertainty around Columbus, the next anticipated Mexican cattle crossing. No reopening date or official postponement has been confirmed, but the implications for future cattle availability deserve immediate attention. Elsewhere, Friday's pork cutout recovered without resolving weakness in export-sensitive primals. Chicken production continues expanding while individual cuts face different supply conditions. Ice Futures U.S. also announced plans for competing livestock futures contracts, subject to regulatory review. This week opens with several markets sending conflicting signals. Understanding which developments represent actual supply changes, and which are simply price movements, will be essential.

SHAWN: The cash-cattle market entered the weekend with Southern packer bids reported at two twenty-eight and feedlot asking prices around two thirty. The Ag Center reported renewed Saturday bids after limited Friday sales. Northern live cattle traded mainly around two twenty-six to two twenty-seven, with dressed transactions reported at three fifty to three fifty-five. Meanwhile, USDA's October 16th afternoon report placed Choice boxed beef at three seventy-two, down one sixty-seven on the day. Select gained forty-three cents to three fifty-three, leaving the Choice Select spread at nineteen cents. That divergence matters for packer economics. Higher cattle acquisition costs are not being accompanied by equivalent gains in finished-beef values. If the relationship persists, it puts additional pressure on processing margins and raises questions about the sustainability of aggressive cattle bids. For downstream buyers, the important distinction is that strong cash cattle does not automatically justify higher offers across every boxed-beef cut. Individual cut demand still determines where pricing power exists. USDA's October 16th Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook identified a development that challenges the conventional domestic cattle-supply narrative. Federally inspected cow slaughter during January through September was near its lowest level since 1950, with only 2005 lower. Yet domestic cull-cow and nineties prices have weakened as lower-priced imported lean beef competes in the processing market. USDA reported August beef imports of five hundred twenty million pounds, up twenty-six percent year over year. Friday's national fresh F-O-B plant averages placed nineties at three ninety-seven, eighty-fives at two eighty-two and fifties at eighty-seven. The commercial significance is not that domestic cattle supplies have suddenly become abundant. They have not. It is that international beef availability is influencing specific U.S. wholesale markets even as domestic cattle numbers remain constrained. Platts' October 15th market correspondence reported South American frozen nineties indications near three oh five at the U.S. port of entry, while Australian and New Zealand C-I-F East Coast indications were near three thirteen. Those values have different delivery terms and are not directly interchangeable with domestic fresh F-O-B plant quotations. Cattle procurement, boxed-beef merchandising and processing-beef sourcing are facing different pressures. That separation deserves attention as packers enter another week of tight livestock availability. Heavy Choice ribeyes and certain thin meats also softened through October 14th. Their performance reinforces the need to evaluate demand for individual cuts rather than assume the cattle market determines every wholesale price.

HOST: For the week ended October 10th, hatcheries set about two hundred forty-five million broiler eggs, up three percent year over year, and growers placed one hundred ninety million chicks, up one percent. USDA projects broiler consumption per person nearly four percent higher in 2026. Cut availability still varies. Jumbo boneless breasts remained competitively offered as small and medium breasts held steadier. Boneless skinless thigh spot offerings were limited. Heavier bird weights added jumbo-wing availability but complicated fresh medium-wing consistency. For October 12th through 16th, USDA recorded boneless skinless breast at one seventeen, down one seventy-five from the prior week, while boneless skinless thigh reached one seventy-three, up five thirty-eight. The thigh premium widened to fifty-six cents from forty-nine. These cuts are not interchangeable. Diced-product processors may use jumbo breasts more economically than fixed-portion buyers. Match delivered quotes, then measure trim, giveaway, labor and throughput per usable pound. The line must preserve the discount. For medium-wing and thigh programs, reverse the strategy. Price certainty is secondary to confirmed size-specific allocation. Holiday downtime makes allocation more valuable.

SHAWN: Friday's pork cutout recovered three cents to a reported eighty-one. Earlier October 9th conditions showed weak bellies, hams, picnics and specified trimmings. The five-day cutout then averaged eighty-two, down three seventy-two week over week. Friday's ham primal rose thirty-three cents to sixty-six and belly primal rose seven eighty-one to ninety-one. Those daily gains do not erase earlier weakness or establish stronger underlying demand. USDA identifies belly and ham weakness as an important drag on wholesale pork. August exports to Mexico, a critical destination for U.S. fresh bone-in hams, fell eleven percent year over year. Exports to Colombia increased thirty-six percent, but from a smaller base. China's January through September pork production rose three point two percent, while September-end hog inventory declined two point six percent, adding another demand-and-supply pressure point for exporters. The buying question is, are exporters offering affected ham sizes or delivery weeks to different customers? Ham processors should request dated offers for export-oriented fresh bone-in ham sizes, approved boneless processing-ham alternatives and frozen inventory, with delivery weeks and handling requirements specified. Test whether any redirected lots are actually available. Weaker export demand alone proves no domestic discount. For bacon and sausage, price bellies and precise trim grades independently of Friday's composite cutout. A September wean-to-finish model showed a forty-six dollar a head loss. USDA's separate farrow-to-finish model remained profitable through August. Neither represents the entire industry.

HOST: International supply is changing the negotiating equation, but access isn't equal. USDA reports Argentina's September beef quota tranche was fully utilized, while the separate Affordable Beef quota was only thirty-seven percent filled as of September 28th. New tranches opened October 1st, and rising Brazilian shipments point to continued imported processing-beef competition. For grinding-beef buyers, origin and entry timing now deserve attention alongside lean point. Compare qualified imported frozen offers against domestic fresh alternatives only after accounting for quota treatment, freight, customs, thawing and usable yield. September quota utilization does not establish available October capacity. Preapproved international options create leverage. Unexecutable offshore quotes do not. New World screwworm has sharpened the risk around the next anticipated Mexican cattle crossing. New Mexico officials confirmed two additional cases October 15th in a calf and a horse in Grant County. State authorities established infested zones around Silver City and Coyote Hills, with a wider surveillance zone extending to Columbus. Animals moving within or beyond the infested zones are subject to inspection and treatment when necessary. Columbus had been identified as the next crossing expected to reopen, but no official date was announced, and a postponement has not been confirmed. USDA's October livestock outlook records Douglas reopening August 24th and Santa Teresa September 24th. Do not include anticipated Columbus arrivals in forward cattle coverage until reopening, entry eligibility and inspection requirements are officially confirmed. The new detections increase uncertainty. They do not establish a change in the reopening schedule.

SHAWN: What I'm watching. The immediate beef question is whether stronger cash-cattle bids will hold against the latest boxed-beef market, and how domestic grinding-beef prices respond to imported lean competition. The next USDA Cattle on Feed report will add another measure of future cattle availability. The forward feed-cost test is separate. September NOPA member crush was a reported one hundred ninety-six point three million bushels and soybean-oil stocks about one point oh five three billion pounds. USDA FAS reported October 19th soybean sales of one hundred fourteen thousand metric tons to China and two hundred sixty-one thousand to unknown destinations, for 2026 and 2027 delivery. Sales are not shipments. Unknown destinations are not necessarily China. Watch crush, local meal basis and export commitments before changing feed coverage. Risk management. Ice Futures U.S. plans to introduce physically delivered live cattle and financially settled cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog futures on December 7th, pending regulatory review. The real test will be trading liquidity and hedge effectiveness, not the arrival of another exchange. Procurement radar. Beef. Watch the margin divide. Cash-cattle strength against softer Choice values is the immediate signal. Monitor whether packers change slaughter schedules or boxed-beef offers as the week progresses. Imported processing-beef competition remains a separate pricing influence. Chicken. Supply growth is uneven. Expanding broiler production is adding opportunities in jumbo breasts and wings, but thigh availability and medium-wing specifications remain more restrictive. Contract performance will depend on the cut and size required. Pork. Watch export-sensitive primals. Friday's cutout recovery does not settle the question of ham and belly demand. Changes in export orders and domestic availability warrant attention before interpreting the rebound as a broader market recovery. Freight. Delivered costs still matter. Fuel, refrigerated transportation capacity and access to established routes can influence which offers are economically competitive, particularly for imported frozen product. Margin. Track the actual exposure. Beef packers face the cattle-to-cutout relationship. Chicken processors face cut-specific availability. Pork buyers face differing primal demand. A single commodity headline does not describe all three. One of the most expensive mistakes in the protein business is assuming that a tight supply situation guarantees a strong market for everything that comes from it. This week offers a direct challenge to that assumption. Cash cattle is strengthening while important beef values remain under pressure. Imported processing beef is competing in a market with historically low domestic cow slaughter. Chicken production is increasing without providing equal relief across every cut, and pork's headline recovery has not resolved weakness in export-sensitive products. Meanwhile, screwworm detections are introducing a different kind of uncertainty, one that cannot be settled by price negotiations alone. The operators who understand where the market is actually changing will be better positioned than those reacting to where it was supposed to go. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Monday Market Open for October 19th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 16th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Friday is when the market starts collecting on Monday's promises. Everybody arrives with an opinion. The cattleman knows what his animals are worth. The packer knows what they cost. The salesman knows what he needs for the beef, and the customer knows what he's willing to pay. Two people can look at the same load of meat and see two entirely different markets. By Friday, I don't care who sounded smartest on Monday. I want to know who recognized what was changing while there was still time to act. The fellow who saw it coming usually doesn't need nearly as many words.

HOST: December live cattle settled at two twenty-seven twenty-five, up two twelve. Choice fell two fifty-two to three seventy-three ninety-eight. Select lost five eighty-five to three fifty-two sixty-two. Imported frozen nineties were assessed at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast. Domestic fresh eighty-fives averaged three sixteen. Different product. Not a direct comparison. Pork cutout lost one ninety to seventy-seven fifty-five. Ribs fell thirteen eighty-nine. Hog base rose two fifty-six to seventy-one seventy.

SHAWN: China is showing up with chicken at somebody else's table. Buyers with qualified international suppliers should be asking for fresh offers. December corn settled at four seventy-eight. Meal at three fifty-nine eighty. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures fell eight cents to four eighty-five. A supplier doesn't have to be wrong about its costs for a buyer to be right about the price. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 16th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Friday is when the market starts collecting on Monday's promises. Everybody arrives with an opinion. The cattleman knows what his animals are worth. The packer knows what they cost. The salesman knows what he needs for the beef, and the customer knows what he's willing to pay. Every one of them can have a perfectly reasonable argument. That's this business. Two people can look at the same load of meat and see two entirely different markets. And I've never been impressed by somebody winning an argument over price while losing money on the transaction. By Friday, I don't care who sounded smartest on Monday. I want to know who recognized what was changing while there was still time to act. Somebody will always have a good explanation for what happened. The fellow who saw it coming usually doesn't need nearly as many words.

HOST: Livestock costs and finished-meat values parted ways Thursday. Cattle futures advanced while Choice and Select boxed beef declined. Hog futures and negotiated hog prices strengthened as the pork cutout weakened. Those are different benchmarks, not a packing-margin calculation, but they expose the limits of passing costs along. The opportunity is specific. Grade-sensitive beef negotiations, weakening pork primals and new competition among global chicken exporters. Grain futures also declined despite soybean export commitments. Meanwhile, September's diesel-fuel producer price index rose twenty-one percent, a reminder that cheaper ingredients don't necessarily mean cheaper delivered protein.

SHAWN: The cattle shortage hasn't disappeared. The beef customer's willingness to pay is another matter. December live cattle futures settled Thursday at two twenty-seven twenty-five, up two twelve. November feeders gained three fifty to three forty-one ninety-five. Meanwhile, Choice boxed beef fell two fifty-two to three seventy-three ninety-eight. Select lost five eighty-five to three fifty-two sixty-two. Futures aren't cash cattle purchases, and cutouts aren't individual box quotations. But expensive livestock alongside softer wholesale beef is a difficult combination for processors. The more revealing distinction is between grades. From the previous Friday through Thursday, Choice gained sixty-three cents while Select lost one sixty-eight. Buyers able to substitute approved Select product can negotiate from evidence that Choice-only programs simply don't have. Retailers are defending prices on selected competitive items, according to industry commentary. Where beef is among them, packers may face tougher resistance to passing through cattle costs. That is a purchasing consideration, not evidence of falling beef consumption. Grinding programs have another calculation to run. Platts assessed imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast on October 14th. USDA's domestic fresh eighty-fives average Thursday was three sixteen. Different lean content, condition and delivery bases prohibit a direct savings comparison. A qualified finished-blend calculation can still reveal whether an alternative works. Scarce cattle are a structural problem. Not every finished-beef price gets permanent protection from that scarcity.

HOST: Grandma believed in a chicken in every pot. China looked at that idea and apparently saw a customer list. For decades, China was the customer exporters wanted. They built capacity and relationships around getting chicken onto Chinese tables. Now Chinese processors are showing up at somebody else's table, carrying chicken. Reuters reported approximately two point six billion dollars in Chinese chicken-product exports in 2025. Chinese suppliers are challenging businesses Brazil, Thailand and other exporters spent years developing. China doesn't have to dominate world poultry trade to change the negotiating table. Win enough orders, and yesterday's dependable customer starts asking what makes the old supplier worth more. The exporter who loses an account still has a plant, employees and a sales team. It might sharpen its pencil, pursue a different market or fight harder for existing customers. Those are potential responses, not verified diversions of shipments. Buyers with qualified international suppliers should be asking for fresh offers. At home, the opportunity is more particular. USDA forecasts broiler production of forty-nine point seven two billion pounds in 2026 and fifty point one five billion in 2027. Thursday's report described steady whole birds, weaker undertones for wings and tenders, and breast conditions varying by size. More pounds don't automatically mean more of the exact part a plant needs. But abroad, established exporters are discovering that being first to the dinner table doesn't reserve the seat. Grandma wanted everybody to have a chicken in the pot. China wants to sell everybody the chicken, the pot, and probably charge extra for the gravy. And somewhere in Brazil and Thailand, somebody's already wondering who invited China to dinner.

SHAWN: The hog buyer and rib buyer had completely different Thursdays. The national negotiated hog carcass base rose two fifty-six to seventy-one seventy. December lean hog futures gained fifty cents to settle at sixty-six fifty-eight. Meanwhile, the pork cutout lost one ninety to seventy-seven fifty-five. Ribs fell thirteen eighty-nine. Butts lost four seventy. Picnics gained. A packer's higher livestock costs are real. So is a rib customer's evidence that its product is worth less today. Subtracting futures, hog bases and cutouts won't produce a valid processor margin. Comparing the relevant primal with the supplier's offer is the stronger negotiating argument. The cutout ended Thursday two ninety-five below the prior Friday, although year-to-date hog slaughter remains below last year's pace. Individual cuts, not the hog count alone, determine the strength of a supplier's selling argument. Open rib and butt contracts deserve close attention when their pricing periods reset. Picnics require their own assessment, not a borrowed conclusion from the rib market.

HOST: More quota access doesn't necessarily mean more beef. Agricultural economist James Mitchell reports that thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the initial one hundred thousand metric ton U.S. lean-beef quota allocation through September 28th. His analysis indicates that some shipments might have entered anyway under different tariff treatment. That's an attributed September assessment, not verified current CBP utilization or a measurement of incremental nineties supply. Australia's September outlook forecasts nine point six million cattle slaughtered in 2026, offering qualified buyers another possible sourcing channel, not guaranteed delivered savings. In Brazil, uneven soybean moisture and excessive southern rainfall create planting-calendar risk for the following corn crop. No production loss has been established. New World screwworm policy is already shaping cattle movement. USDA APHIS lists Douglas, Arizona, and Santa Teresa, New Mexico, as reopened for Mexican cattle imports. Other southern border ports remain closed. Texas requires RFID identification, an electronic veterinary inspection certificate and an entry permit for qualifying Mexican-origin cattle subsequently moved into the state. These safeguards make route eligibility and compliance part of the supply equation while U.S. cattle remain scarce. Reopened ports do not establish restored import volumes or immediate price relief.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Separate Select-eligible uncovered needs from Choice-only commitments. Run finished-blend economics before treating imported frozen lean as a bargain against domestic fresh trim. Pork. Reopen rib and butt conversations where contract reset dates lag the latest primal declines. Don't extend that argument to stronger picnics. Chicken. Test uncovered wing and tender offers, but keep breast business segregated by size. Ask qualified overseas suppliers whether intensified competition has changed their terms. Feed. December corn settled at four seventy-eight. November soybeans at twelve sixty-three. December soybean meal at three fifty-nine eighty, all lower Thursday. USDA nevertheless announced 2026 and 2027 soybean export sales of three hundred thirty thousand metric tons to China and two hundred eighty-three thousand to unknown destinations. Commitments aren't shipments, and falling futures aren't proof that demand has vanished. Freight. BLS reports September diesel-fuel producer prices up twenty-one percent month over month. November NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures fell eight cents to four eighty-five Thursday. Different measures and periods, not conflicting freight quotes. Check contracted surcharge indices, reset lags, cold storage and handling before calling a lower meat offer a delivered-cost saving. Week in review. Monday's pork recovery was the week's clearest reversal. The cutout reached eighty-two ninety-seven, then fell in each subsequent session to seventy-seven fifty-five Thursday, a five forty-two decline. Meanwhile, Choice and Select beef finished on opposite sides of their previous-Friday levels. China's growing poultry-export role was the bigger competitive shift, with effects still developing. For Monday's negotiations, the unresolved question isn't whether protein is broadly cheaper. It's which specific quotations still reflect the market that produced them. Buyers have evidence to challenge certain beef and pork offers this week. They don't have evidence that every supplier has lost pricing power, or that every lower-priced alternative meets the specification. A processor's rising livestock costs can be genuine even when the finished product won't command yesterday's price. The useful conversation is about the cut, the grade, the contract and the customer, not an argument over which headline wins. A supplier doesn't have to be wrong about its costs for a buyer to be right about the price. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Closing Bell Friday for October 16th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, October 15th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You can be right about the market and dead wrong about the purchase. Cattle futures fell while wholesale beef rose. Hog futures weakened, but bellies took a beating as hams gained. Chicken production is growing, yet buyers aren't seeing the same conditions across every part. Fewer pounds don't guarantee stronger prices when demand is pushing back. Being right about the market doesn't mean a damn thing if you're wrong about your margin.

HOST: Choice gained one thirty-five Wednesday to three seventy-six fifty. Select rose four eighty to three fifty-eight forty-seven. December live cattle declined one twenty-five to two twenty-five twelve. Fresh nineties averaged three ninety. Fresh fifties eighty-nine. Pork cutout fell one twenty-three to seventy-nine forty-five. Bellies plunged eleven dollars to eighty-three eighty. Hams gained three oh three. Hams and bellies are two different markets. Chicken is steady, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Sterling has unhedged feedlot losses at two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head and packer margins at a positive one hundred fifty-six. Pork plant utilization is at ninety-nine point one percent. December corn settled at four eighty-one. Meal at three sixty-four fifty. Before you commit, check the cost of the exact product delivered, the yield you can recover, and the selling price your customer will accept. If those three numbers don't work, neither does the deal. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 15th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You can be right about the market and dead wrong about the purchase. Wednesday offered plenty of evidence. Cattle futures fell while wholesale beef rose. Hog futures weakened, but bellies took a beating as hams gained. Chicken production is growing, yet buyers aren't seeing the same conditions across every part. Now USDA has reduced its forecasts for both pork production and hog prices. That ought to get our attention. Fewer pounds don't guarantee stronger prices when demand is pushing back. A cattle producer, packer, grinder and restaurant operator can look at the same market and reach very different conclusions. Each is carrying a different cost and selling a different product. The mistake isn't watching the futures board. It's letting that board make a purchasing decision it wasn't designed to make. Being right about the market doesn't mean a damn thing if you're wrong about your margin.

HOST: Sterling's latest estimates put beef feedlots deeply in the red while beef packers retain positive, narrowing margins. Pork producers and packers are both seeing their margin cushion shrink as pork plant utilization approaches full capacity. USDA forecasts less domestic beef and pork production than previously expected, while chicken output expands. Hales Trading warns that a larger weekly cattle kill could test wholesale beef demand. For purchasers, Wednesday's mixed cutout, primal and futures moves argue for buying the exact product and delivery window, not the broad market headline.

SHAWN: Beef's margin divide is stark. Sterling Marketing estimates unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head for the week ended October 10th, narrower than the previous week's three hundred forty dollar loss. Its modeled breakeven for cattle marketed that week eased to two forty sixty-six, but the five-area Choice steer average was only two twenty eleven. These cash-model benchmarks exclude individual feedlot hedges. Sterling estimates beef packer margins at a positive one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, down from one hundred eighty-one the prior week. Fed plant capacity utilization slipped to seventy-nine point nine percent from eighty-two point five. Packers can post positive estimated per-head margins while still contending with the fixed-cost consequences of running plants below capacity. Neither model represents any individual company's audited results. The next test is demand. USDA estimated Wednesday's cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, with week-to-date slaughter at three hundred twenty-six thousand. Hales Trading raised its forecast for the full week to five hundred forty to five hundred fifty thousand head and warned that additional beef could pressure Choice cutout values below three seventy. That is Hales' conditional forecast, not an observed price or a confirmed slaughter total. For now the tape moved the other way. Wednesday's USDA Choice cutout gained one thirty-five to three seventy-six fifty. Select rose four eighty to three fifty-eight forty-seven. December live cattle futures declined one twenty-five to two twenty-five twelve. Wholesale recovery and futures weakness are different market signals. Neither alone establishes tomorrow's delivered beef cost. Cash discovery complicates the comparison. USDA recorded just two hundred ninety-seven head of negotiated cash cattle purchases Wednesday, while substantial cattle volumes continued to be priced through formulas and grids. Buyers using cash-referenced contracts should check their benchmark, premiums and settlement dates rather than extrapolating from a thin daily negotiation sample. The grind remains a separate purchasing decision. National fresh nineties averaged three ninety. Fresh eighty-fives two eighty-eight. Fresh fifties eighty-nine. Cheaper fat trim does not necessarily reduce a finished ground-beef formula's cost after lean requirements, yields and delivery terms are considered. October Wasdy also revised beef-production forecasts lower for both 2026 and 2027. Tighter cattle availability is still the underlying constraint.

HOST: Chicken supplies continue expanding, but the price signal depends on the part. USDA's October 14th hatchery report put eggs set three percent above a year earlier and chicks placed one percent higher for the week ended October 10th. Young-chicken slaughter is up one point three percent year to date. Egg sets, placements and current slaughter describe different points in the supply pipeline. They do not mean the same pounds are immediately available. USDA called Wednesday's domestic broiler market steady. Bone-in and boneless breasts and tenders held steady. Wing demand was light and dark-meat supplies were clearing well. An uncovered wing buyer has reason to request fresh offers. There is no corresponding USDA indication of a breast-price break. Dark-meat buyers should test availability and delivery requirements instead of treating orderly movement as oversupply. For foodservice operators evaluating chicken against expensive beef, the decision is finished portion cost. Compare usable yield, processing requirements, menu acceptance and contracted deliveries. Greater bird production improves options only when the needed specification can be purchased at an advantageous delivered price.

SHAWN: Pork's capacity numbers explain why margin pressure deserves attention. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish profits at sixteen eighty-seven a head for the week ended October 10th, down from eighteen ninety-three. Modeled pork packer margins narrowed to six ninety-nine a head from eight ninety-four, while market hog slaughter reached two point five six seven million head and estimated plant utilization climbed to ninety-nine point one percent. High throughput has not translated into wider modeled margins on either side of the plant. October Wasdy lowered both 2026 and 2027 pork-production forecasts, while still projecting more production in 2027 than 2026. Hog-price and export forecasts also moved lower. A downward revision to supply expectations is not automatically a forecast of higher prices when product demand is resistant. Wednesday's negotiated pork cutout fell one twenty-three to seventy-nine forty-five. Bellies plunged eleven dollars to eighty-three eighty. Hams gained three oh three to sixty-eight sixty-six. Picnics lost four eighty-three, while loins and butts edged higher. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-six oh eight, down one ninety-five. Wednesday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Bacon processors should refresh uncovered belly bids and check when formula contracts recognize the decline. Ham and loin buyers should not demand identical concessions simply because the overall cutout fell. Sterling's weekly comprehensive cutout and USDA's daily negotiated cutout cover different transactions and periods. They must not be merged into a single margin calculation.

HOST: The latest international outlook favors expanding chicken trade rather than uniform protein growth. Len Steiner's October 14th Daily Livestock Report, citing USDA FAS, places 2027 global chicken production at one hundred fourteen point nine million metric tons, up two point two percent, and chicken exports at fifteen point six million, up three point four percent. The same report describes global beef output as approximately flat and pork output modestly lower. These are attributed 2027 forecasts. The underlying global FAS tables remain unreconciled. More global chicken does not guarantee cheaper U.S. parts. Export access, competing destinations and specific cut demand determine where additional pounds clear. Separately, USDA FAS identifies possible El Niño disruption to Brazilian soybean planting and second-crop corn timing. That is a forward risk, not an established crop loss. Feed procurement should follow physical supply and delivered basis. EPA's proposed treatment of renewable-fuel obligations related to previous small-refinery exemptions could change future soybean-oil demand and crush incentives. It remains a proposal, not a confirmed feed-cost change. Any purchasing response should depend on actual meal availability and local basis rather than assuming a regulatory outcome.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Check fed-cattle replacement economics, the cash benchmark underlying formula contracts, and boxed-beef offers by cut and delivery window. Compare approved ground-beef blends, not isolated lean and fat quotes. Chicken. Rebid uncovered wings. Test breast and dark-meat terms separately. Evaluate substitutions against finished yield and customer specifications. Pork. Seek updated belly bids and verify contract reset dates. Keep ham and loin coverage tied to their own markets. Feed. December corn settled at four eighty-one, down two cents, while December soybean meal rose one thirty to three sixty-four fifty. Confirm basis, freight and ration costs before booking savings. What I'm watching. Whether more cattle slaughter actually weakens Choice beef. Whether negotiated cash trade becomes a meaningful price test. Whether bellies stabilize as pork plants run near capacity. And whether expanding chicken supply produces better part-specific delivered offers. Before committing working capital, check three numbers. The cost of the exact product delivered. The yield you can actually recover. And the selling price your customer will accept. A favorable market call is not a purchasing strategy. If those three numbers don't work, neither does the deal. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Thursday Margin Monitor for October 15th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.