When we think about evolution, it is typically in the context of

natural history, seeking an explanation for the amazing diversity of life. Yet evolution is not only the matter of the past, but an ongoing dynamical process linking the past with the future. Evolutionary

dynamics is particularly apparent in rapidly mutating microbes and

viruses. For example, the virus causing seasonal flu continuously evolves to escape human immunity generated by previous

infections: because of this process, we get the flu again and again.

Can we understand evolutionary dynamics well enough to predict

the future, at least far enough to help with the flu vaccine updates?

This talk will review basic mechanisms of evolutionary dynamics and discuss some of the old and new approaches to evolutionary

forecasting and the challenges that they face. Surprisingly, ideas

from Theoretical Physics can be helpful in understanding

evolutionary dynamics.