US–India trade talks have hit a wall. President Donald Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 50%, tying the hike to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. His message was blunt — “No, not until we get it resolved” — making clear that negotiations won’t resume until the tariff dispute ends. For India, a key US export market is now at risk, but New Delhi insists its oil imports are about economic stability, not geopolitics.

Amid the tension, NSA Ajit Doval met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Talks with Russian Security Council chief Sergey Shoigu focused on defence and energy cooperation, and may pave the way for Putin’s India visit. While Doval was in Moscow, Trump’s tariff hike landed. The Kremlin blasted Washington’s move as “illegitimate,” vowing to keep trading with partners like India.

China also joined the pushback. Its envoy to India, Xu Feihong, called the US a “bully,” warning that tariffs violate global trade rules. Trump hinted Beijing could be next for penalties, despite China buying nearly half of Russia’s crude exports.

In another twist, Russia’s deputy UN envoy confirmed a possible Putin–Trump summit next week — the first US–Russia leaders’ meeting since 2021 — as part of a push to end the Ukraine war. Trump campaigned on ending the conflict in 24 hours, but the promise remains unmet seven months into his second term.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s President Lula phoned PM Modi to discuss the 50% tariffs on both nations. They agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, energy, defence, and technology, expand the India–MERCOSUR pact, and link digital payment systems PIX and UPI. Lula will visit India early next year, with his vice-president leading a trade delegation in October. Both leaders condemned Washington’s move, signalling a united Global South stance without announcing retaliatory tariffs — yet.

From Delhi to Brasília, Moscow to Beijing, the week saw a flurry of moves: alliances tightening, rhetoric hardening, and the US turning tariffs into a high-stakes geopolitical weapon.

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