Puzzle, Problem, Mess

This episode is with David Olney. David is an Australian, based in Adelaide, whose career has spanned university teaching, security analysis, professional training and strategic communication. For nearly 20 years, he lectured at the University of Adelaide, teaching subjects including Applied Thinking, Complex Problem Solving, International Security and the Politics of Leadership. He's also trained people across Defence, government and private organisations, including the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Defence.

In the conversation that follows, David explains, with great clarity, the difference between complicated and complex challenges — and the barriers that make adaptation so difficult, for your company AND you.

We cover: 

Understanding complexity — and why organisations resist it

• The distinction between complicated and complex problems: predictable interactions versus systems that evolve through human behaviour, time and feedback.
• Why organisations prefer to treat complex challenges as complicated ones — the psychological comfort of predictability, control and familiar expertise.
• Catastrophic failures, near misses and unexpected shocks as catalysts for recognising complexity.
• The particular challenge for established media businesses: adapting before a crisis forces change.
• Streaming and AI as examples of disruption confronting organisations with the limitations of their existing models and capabilities.

Russell Ackoff's puzzles, problems and messes

• Why solving individual problems in isolation can intensify the wider mess.
• Systems thinking, interconnected variables and the unintended consequences of interventions.
• The Yellowstone National Park example: wolves, beavers, waterways and forests as an illustration of system-wide interdependence.
• The importance of understanding feedback loops and second-order effects before intervening.
• Using artificial boundaries and necessary simplifications to make otherwise overwhelming complexity manageable.

Practical frameworks for navigating complexity

• John Boyd's OODA loop — Observe, Orient, Decide, Act — and the importance of orientation in identifying where and how to intervene.
• Toyota's Five Whys technique: moving beyond symptoms and immediate assumptions to uncover underlying causes and relationships.
• Herbert Simon's distinction between maximising and satisficing — agreeing on the appropriate standard of performance before acting.
• Lessons from high-reliability organisations, including aircraft carriers, nuclear power plants and hospital emergency departments.
• The US Marine Corps' Left of Bang approach: recognising anomalies and acting before they develop into crises.
• The importance of trusting frontline observations and empowering junior employees to raise concerns.

Leadership and organisational adaptation

• Gary Klein's distinction between refining existing capabilities and seeking insights into emerging challenges.
• Why long-tenured management teams can become trapped in optimising yesterday's successful operating model.
• The distinction between management and leadership: refining yesterday versus preparing for tomorrow.
• Creating organisational conditions that encourage curiosity, anomaly detection and constructive challenge.

Strategic communication and change from within

• Why solving a complex problem is often easier than securing organisational permission and resources to address it.
• Strategic communication as a bottom-up capability, rather than simply a top-down management function.
• Translating frontline challenges into the priorities, incentives and concerns of senior decision-makers.
• The importance of genuinely bidirectional communication in adaptive organisations.
• How hierarchy, status and internal power structures can prevent critical information from reaching decision-makers.

The human dimension of complexity

• Why psychological adaptability is increasingly as important as technical problem-solving expertise.
• The challenge of accepting that yesterday's expertise may not be sufficient for tomorrow's environment.
• The growing importance of generalists who can connect disciplines, perspectives and specialist capabilities.
• Developing organisational adaptability by empowering and promoting people closer to the frontline.
• The role of leadership renewal, cultural flexibility and openness to unfamiliar ideas in navigating sustained change.

David on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/davidolney/

Online: https://davidolney.com.au/

This episode of Puzzle Problem Mess is with Brian Wieser, CEO and Principal of Madison and Wall, about where advertising money is moving, why it is moving — and what that means for broadcasters and streaming businesses.

 Topics covered with Brian include:

• The changing shape of the global advertising market — why social platforms, search and commerce media continue to take share, while traditional media remains under pressure, with connected TV and digital audio often representing shifts within existing categories rather than genuinely new pools of spend.
• Why current advertising growth may be less robust than it looks — including the longer-term economic risks Brian sees in elevated government debt, inflation, higher capital costs, trade barriers and the extraordinary levels of investment being directed towards AI infrastructure.
• Why television can remain an effective advertising medium while continuing to lose share — and why advertiser behaviour is increasingly shaped by price and measurable performance rather than simply by audience behaviour or media effectiveness.
• Brian's “Air Force and Army” analogy for advertising — with television and other mass-reach media providing the air cover that can make performance marketing more effective, even as marketers increasingly direct budget towards the latter.
• Whether ease of buying really explains the platforms' advantage — Brian challenges the idea that television is inherently difficult to transact, arguing that the bigger issue is what marketers believe they are buying rather than the mechanics of the transaction.
• Why television's pursuit of performance advertising may be strategically problematic — not because broadcasters should ignore performance, but because they may struggle to establish the same credibility as platforms already associated with performance outcomes.
• Two possible routes for broadcasters seeking performance budgets — allowing their inventory to be sold by businesses that already possess performance credibility, such as retailers, or building broader performance-oriented media networks themselves.
• Why broadcaster consolidation within individual countries may solve the wrong problem — protecting margins and strengthening incumbent positions without necessarily addressing declining audience or advertising share.
• The case for broadcasters to think internationally rather than domestically — building meaningful positions across multiple markets in order to share infrastructure, investment and best practice, and achieve greater scale against global platforms.
• The emerging relationship between broadcasters and global platforms — including partnerships such as TF1 and Netflix, and why Netflix and Amazon may increasingly become important distribution or commercial partners for national broadcasters.
• Why non-advertising revenue may become increasingly important to television businesses — particularly subscription models, given consumers' demonstrated willingness to continue paying for premium video entertainment.
• The myth of the vast untapped SME advertising opportunity — Brian argues that small and medium-sized businesses are not necessarily growing their advertising expenditure faster than large advertisers; instead, platforms such as Google and Meta have succeeded by consolidating fragmented local advertising spend.
• Why chasing very small advertisers can be economically unattractive for traditional media businesses — particularly when advertisers with modest budgets naturally concentrate their spending with only one or two providers.
• How connected TV is redistributing rather than necessarily creating SME advertising spend — with money moving away from smaller local media sellers towards national connected-TV platforms.
• Where power is accumulating across the advertising ecosystem — with Meta, Google, Amazon and other businesses continuing to take share not simply because of AI, but because of sustained investment in technology, products, sales capability and infrastructure.

Ultimately, the conversation asks a difficult strategic question for broadcasters: if advertisers increasingly prioritise performance, scale and efficiency, should television keep trying to become more like the digital platforms — or build a different business model around the things television can uniquely do?

Key links:
 Brian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianwieser

Madison and Wall site: https://madisonandwall.com/
Madison and Wall substack: https://madisonandwall.substack.com/

And, I recommend you seek out the Madison and Wall podcast wherever you get your podcasts – it’s a ~weekly ~11min format, very informative and entertaining.

Today's guest is Justin Lebbon

(Justin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-lebbon-9b70484/ )

Justin is the founder of the Future of TV Advertising conference series, which brings together broadcasters, agencies, advertisers, and technology companies in markets including the UK, Australia, and Canada. 

Justin is also the co-host of the Media Unfiltered podcast, a podcast covering the big issues shaping advertising and media, often co-hosted by Ian Whittaker, who was a guest on this podcast in episode two.

(Media unfiltered podcast - https://media-unfiltered.com/ )

Back to Justin. 

Justin has an unusually broad vantage point on the industry. He spends his year talking to people across different parts of the TV advertising ecosystem in different markets and hearing where they agree, where they disagree, and where they're still trying to work out the answers. So I thought Justin would be the perfect person to help sort through some of the puzzles, problems, and messes facing television advertising today. It's a wide-ranging conversation, and covers:

• The challenge facing premium local television as media globalises and video inventory proliferates
•  Why a flat TV advertising market means broadcasters need to grow the market, not simply fight each other for share
•  Broadcaster collaboration as a strategic imperative 
•  Moving beyond reliance on the major agency holding companies and pursuing the “messy middle” of advertisers 
•  Making TV dramatically easier to buy — common platforms, consistent audience data and simpler transactions 
•  The opportunity to unlock SME advertising through self-service platforms 
•  Why broadcasters need to retain greater control of their inventory, pricing, data and customer relationships 
•  How broadcaster sales organisations need to evolve beyond traditional agency trading relationships 
•  Going directly to advertisers — and what TV can learn from collaborative approaches in Norway and other markets 
•  The essential ingredients of broadcaster collaboration: politics, scale, common products and common measurement
•  Competing for social-video spend by changing how television is measured 
•  TV’s “fashion problem” — why proven effectiveness alone hasn’t protected advertising share 
•  The economic and societal consequences of advertising expenditure migrating to global technology platforms 
•  Defining and defending premium video through quality, trust, governance, transparency and independently verified measurement 
•  Why premium only matters if premium inventory is also simple to buy
•  Why cross-media measurement may currently be more distraction than solution 
•  The need for broadcasters to diversify beyond advertising revenue 
•  What broadcasters can learn from NBCUniversal, Disney and The New York Times about fandom, events, subscriptions and brand extensions
•  Why combining TV with radio and out-of-home capabilities may create stronger commercial models 
•  Justin’s ultimate conclusion: the answers may be relatively straightforward — execution and industry politics are the hard part

It’s becoming increasingly inaccurate to describe Netflix simply as a streaming service. Alongside its core subscription business, it is building an advertising operation, experimenting with live sport and events, expanding into games and podcasts, revisiting theatrical releases, and even exploring a role as a platform for other broadcasters and content providers.
 

So, in this episode, I speak with Alicia Reese, SVP of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. Over her 17 years with Wedbush Securities, she has covered a variety of sectors, with a primary focus on the movie and entertainment industries. She currently covers theatrical entertainment companies, such as AMC, Cinemark, IMAX, and National CineMedia; streaming-focused companies, such as Netflix, Roku, and Fubo; consumer products companies such as Logitech, Corsair, and Turtle Beach; and media companies related to video games, such as Nintendo, Take-Two, Ubisoft, AppLovin, Unity, Roblox, Double Down Interactive, Playtika, and CD Projekt. Alicia began her career in finance as a data and collateral analyst at Countrywide Securities. Alicia received her B.S. degree in Mathematics/Economics from UCLA.

Alicia speaks about what Netflix is becoming, and how investors should think about the next phase of its evolution. We explore: 

-          why raw viewing hours may be a misleading way to assess Netflix’s health

-          the significance of its shift from subscriber growth towards profitability, engagement and reduced churn

-          how the ad-supported tier is changing subscriber behaviour

-          Netflix’s deliberately low advertising load

-          where the next leg of advertising growth could come from

-          Netflix’s emerging platform strategy

-          the role of live sport as an acquisition tool

-          games and podcasts as engagement layers

-          the significance of its TF1 partnership in France

-          Netflix’s tentative return to theatrical distribution

Finally, we talk about what all this change means for people building careers in media — including the growing importance of AI literacy, marketing and performance marketing, and maintaining a broad view of the companies and capabilities sitting around the traditional media sector.

Here are the applicable disclosures relating to Alicia and Wedbush Securities:

1.       Security discussed: NFLX (Netflix)

2.       Alicia Reese ownership: None

3.       Family/related accounts ownership: None

4.       Firm ownership greater than 1%: No

5.       Wedbush is a market maker in NFLX

6.       Wedbush publishes research on NFLX

7.       Wedbush has not provided investment banking services to NFLX during the applicable disclosure period

Here are some further links:

Alicia on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aliciareese/

Wedbush Securities: https://www.wedbush.com/

The Enders Analysis report references in the episode: https://www.endersanalysis.com/reports/netflix-q2-2026-tackling-engagement-narrative

In this episode, I’m delighted to speak with Doug Shapiro. Doug is a US-based independent consultant and advisor, writer, speaker and lecturer, as well as a Senior Advisor at Boston Consulting Group. He has spent his entire career in and around the media business, including 14 years as a media equity analyst and 12 years at Time Warner and WarnerMedia. 

Doug has also just finished work on a book, Infinite Content: AI, The Next Great Disruption of Media, and How to Navigate What’s Coming, due to be published by MIT Press in early 2027. 

He writes The Mediator on Substack — the links below, and I’ve also linked to Doug’s Media Mental Model – it’s an exceptionally useful way of thinking about the structural changes underway in the media business, bringing together Doug’s writing across the different forces reshaping the industry. 

In this episode, Doug and I focus on three ideas from his Media Mental Model that get to the heart of how the economics of media are changing. 

First, the current shift in the consumer definition of “quality”.  Modern media has been the domain of scarce, professionally produced media, for which ‘quality’ was tied to production values, polish and sophistication. But YouTube, Tik Tok, Reels, and the YouTube x gaming cross-over has given us new forms of media that elevate different attributes - authenticity, relevance, convenience, participation and community.  
 
These new forms of ‘quality’ are easier and cheaper to make – so where does this leave ‘traditional’ media producers? 

Second, we explore what happens as content itself becomes ubiquitous. Doug argues that, as ‘quality’ content can be produced virtually anywhere and by anyone, value migrates towards what Doug terms ‘complements’ and ‘chokepoints’, such as curation, IP, community, trusted provenance, professional validation. 
 
Third, Doug has posited that content might increasingly become top of funnel rather than the final product; less the ‘end’, and more the ‘means’, aggregating attention, building consumer relationships and funnelling demand towards scarcer more valuable downstream experiences and services. 
 
If these two these come to pass - where do traditional media companies position themselves? 
 
Doug’s perspectives are typically thoughtful, thorough and wide ranging – I hope you enjoy the episode.  

Here’s some further links / references: 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-shapiro/ 

https://www.dougshapiro.media/ 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/ 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/media-mental-model-1c6 

https://dougshapiro.substack.com/t/book-infinite-content 

Thank you, 
 
Dan Fahy 

In June 2025 Netflix and TF1, France’s largest commercial broadcaster, announced a deal to bring the TF1 channels and on demand content from TF1+ directly to France’s ~14m Netflix subscribers. 
 
 Last week (June 23rd, 2026) the partnership went live, and in this episode, François Godard takes us inside the deal context, the deal specifics, the risks for both TF1 and Netflix, the impact on the wider French market, what this may signal about Netflix’s partnership ambitions, and the state of broadcaster / streamer partnerships in Europe more generally. 

François Godard (https://francoisgodard.com/) has been an analyst and advisor on international content-related developments in sports, entertainment and telecoms for more than 20 years, and is based in Italy. 

The episode has fantastic insights and detail from François – I hope you enjoy it. 

What are traditional media companies really buying when they acquire creator-economy businesses?

On the surface, the answer might be audiences, revenue, formats, talent relationships or advertising capability. But in this conversation with Chris Erwin, founder and CEO of RockWater, a deeper picture emerges.

Creator-economy M&A is becoming a way for media companies to buy speed: speed to talent, speed to audience, speed to culture, speed to new formats, and speed to new commercial models. 

We discuss why the market is maturing, which kinds of buyers are now active, and how companies like Fox are assembling portfolios of creator and creator-adjacent capabilities across talent, audio, vertical video, live experiences, brand partnerships and IP development.

The opportunity is clear - but so is the risk: when legacy buyers acquire creator-native businesses, can they scale what they bought without destroying the voice, culture and sensibility that made it valuable in the first place?

Links:

Chris Erwin in LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrnov/

Rockwater: https://wearerockwater.com/

The Fox deals I mentioned in the episode: 

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/corp-press-releases/2025/fox-corporation-acquires-red-seat-ventures/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/corp-press-releases/2025/fox-advertising-launches-enhanced-brand-storytelling-program-with-strategic-investment-in-the-lighthouse/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-deepens-creative-content-portfolio-and-audience-reach-with-strategic-investment-in-vertical-video-technology-platform-holywater/

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-acquires-innovative-audio-drama-storyteller-meet-cute/

https://www.foxflash.com/releases/view/fox-entertainment-names-billy-parks-head-of-fox-creator-studios

https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/business/2025/fox-entertainment-acquires-equity-stake-in-chain-forging-strategic-partnership-with-experiential-food-phenomenon-co-founded-by-b-j-novak/

Why do media organisations, filled with smart people who spot early the visible warning signs of coming disruption, nearly always seem to end up reacting too late, or too slow?

This episode explores that question through the OODA loop — John Boyd’s influential model of observation, orientation, decision and action. My guest is Chet Richards, a long-time associate of Boyd and one of the key interpreters of his work for business.

The conversation with Chet homes in on the concepts of time as a strategic instrument, orientation as the engine room of adaptation, and why the ability to recover initiative is ultimately cultural: built on trust, intuitive feel, focus, mission, and learning speed.

For media companies facing constant disruption, seeing the coming change is evidently not enough. The key seems to be finding a way – organisationally, culturally - to move at the tempo of the ‘outside world’.

Links:

Chet Richards’ book – Certain to Win

https://www.amazon.com/Certain-Win-Chet-Richards/dp/818158113X

Chet Richards’ page:

https://slightlyeastofnew.com/page-1/

Chet on Boyd’s OODA loop:
 https://slightlyeastofnew.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/boydsoodaloopnecesse-1.pdf

Jocko Willink podcast discussing the OODA loop:
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwSBOnXrRrM

Details on John Boyd:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Boyd_(military_strategist)

For the last decade, the streaming industry has been obsessed with subscriber growth.

But in 2026, with ad tiers rising, subscriber growth slowing, and churn becoming structural, a different competitive dynamic is emerging: habit.

In this episode, Dan Fahy speaks with Matt Ross, Chief Analytics Officer at Digital-i, about the company’s new “First View of the Day” metric — the first title watched on a streaming platform after 4am local time — and why that first click may now be one of the most important moments in streaming.

Here's the Digital-i blog post on 'First View': 

https://www.digital-i.com/insight-articles/what-the-first-view-of-the-day-tells-us-about-global-streaming-habits

The conversation explores:

• why Netflix’s real advantage may be behavioural, not just content-led
• why frequency matters more than session length
• the surprising strategic importance of kids content and “comfort TV”
• how ad-supported streaming is changing the economics of engagement
• why YouTube increasingly behaves less like a content library and more like a habit platform
• and why broadcasters may be underestimating the strategic value of habitual viewing behaviour

Listen in for a discussion about streaming strategy, engagement, and the shifting battleground for attention.

Featuring:
Matt Ross, Chief Analytics Officer, Digital-i.

 This is Puzzle Problem Mess, conversations about the media economy and how to think clearly when things get messy.

In this episode, I'm joined by Guy Bisson. Guy is one of the UK and Europe's leading entertainment market analysts and has specialized in the global television business for more than 30 years.

He is co-founder of Ampere Analysis, a London-based global analyst house focused on the entertainment, sport and game sectors. In this episode, Guy and I focus on ad tiers on SVOD services. On the surface, this might sound like a narrow topic, but with a large share of gross subscriber editions now coming through ad supported plans for many of the major streamers, the move into advertising is starting to reshape the subscription streaming business in some fundamental ways.