QA Three Shots Cafe Brief

This week's change: put your oat milk and dairy invoices side by side and check whether the oat add-on price still covers the real cost gap, a same-day comparison for Week 40, September 28, 2026.

The headlines say dairy fell and oat rose, but the numbers tell a different story. This episode unpacks farmgate and retail data to show what's actually hitting your till, and gives you one concrete action to run before your next supplier contract renews.

• Oat milk: UK planted oat area is up 13% (AHDB), yet barista-grade oat invoices keep rising because cafe demand is growing near 15% a year through 2031 — supply gains aren't reaching your pence-per-cup cost.
• Dairy: AHDB and Defra farmgate data show prices climbing into autumn, with Müller, Arla and Freshways all raising farmgate rates for September–October (Farmers Guide); AHDB's retail panel to 5 September shows a 2% rise in average prices paid.
• Cafe impact: for a roughly £250k cafe, both oat and dairy costs are rising with no offset between them, adding real pounds per week to your milk line.

Try it, then tell us how it went.