At a December 17th meeting of the Joint Legislative Committee on the Interstate Bridge Replacement, legislators were promised that the proposed light rail service to Vancouver, WA would arrive every 6.7 minutes during weekday rush hours.

We don’t need to guess whether this forecast will be wrong. We already know it.

Before the Yellow Line opened in 2004, TriMet promised that peak-hour trains would arrive every 7.5 minutes by 2020.

That never happened. In fact, the Yellow Line only arrives every 15 minutes, 50% below what was promised.

Not only did TriMet planners give the wrong forecast for levels of service, they weren’t even close on the ridership estimates. TriMet predicted 35,320 weekday riders on the Yellow Line by 2020. Actual ridership is 10,611, 70% below the forecast.

The transit agency for Vancouver already offers express bus service to Portland, which is a superior ride compared to light rail. Spending $3 billion to add rail will be a waste of money.

The legislature should cut light rail from the project while it still can.