Forecasting with Random Disruptive Variables: Human forecasters "pigeon hole" multiple disruptive variables by tying them all together with seamless logic in what strategist spin as a good storyline.   These constructs impart security and a sense of safety (Like Big Objects in Quantum Mechanics).  But such forecasts are only be right by chance.   That's because the relationship between each disruptive variable is random and not set by historical observations or correlations. Here we look at 7 random disruptive variables individually and independently. Some are sure to happen.  

The Disruptive Variables are: The Kabul Curse;  China Succession; Positive Feed Forward Loops and Climate Change; Zero Tolerance Covid Policy;  Private Versus Public Crypto Currencies;  The Economies of War;  Collapse of the Post-Pandemic Economic Architecture;