Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.

The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.

We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.

What We Covered

• The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
• Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
• The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
• The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.

Key Insight

Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.

Guest

Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.