Market Overview

• U.S. Equities: Slightly lower open; NASDAQ -22pts, S&P 500 -1pt, Dow -65pts.

• Europe: Underperforming – EuroStoxx 50 down ~1%, DAX down over 1%.

• Bonds: Pullback after yesterday’s rally. 30Y yield ~4.95%, 10Y ~4.38%, 2Y ~3.86%. Yield curve still steepening amid Powell resignation rumors.

• Crypto:

  • Bitcoin +1.4% ($119K)

  • Ethereum -2%

  • Crypto-related stocks (BITX +4%, Mara/Riot +1-2%, Bitfarms +6%)

• Commodities:

  • Gold, silver, and oil all down ~1%.

• Currencies: Flat across the board; JPY steady despite rising Japanese yields.

• Powell: Speaking today (8:30 AM); not expected to address resignation rumors or Fed independence under political pressure.

• Baumann & Lagarde: Speaking at 1 PM. ECB in blackout period before upcoming meeting – no surprises expected.

• BOJ: Gradual rate hike path continues despite political setbacks; rate to stay at 0.5% for now.

• Nvidia: Down – good for short position.

• Google: Up again after 2.8% rally yesterday; earnings tomorrow.

• Apple: +0.3%, Tesla: flat, Meta: +1.5%, Amazon: +0.39%.

• Crypto stocks: Strong moves pre-market.

• Solana ETF: +5% after +20% yesterday.

• Nuclear stocks: Bouncing after yesterday’s drop (Oklo +2%, SMR +1%).

Today’s Earnings:
SAP, Intuitive, Capital One, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, DR Horton, MSCI, Pulte, and others.

• Ongoing global tariff talks:

  • Japan-US: 2-hour meeting – aiming for common ground.

  • India-US: No trade deal expected by Aug 1.

  • Malaysia-US: Disagreements over EV tax breaks.

  • Canada-US: Discussed defense, no major news.

• Market overextended but holding up on bullish sentiment.

• Watching Google/Tesla earnings as major catalysts.

• Fed steepening trade still in play amid potential Powell exit.

• Monitoring miners, Chinese stocks, and nuclear sector rebounds.

• Keeping an eye on 9% dividend-yield stock IPO and OpenDoor retracement setup.

Fed & Central BanksStocks & EarningsGeopolitics & TradeKey Themes & Strategy