Nvidia: Earnings weren’t terrible but below market expectations. No H20 chips included in guidance; potential extra $2–4B revenue if licenses go through. Speaker plans to go long Nvidia at the open using short-term call options.

Markets:

• Crypto & Commodities:

  • Bitcoin +2% (113)

  • Ethereum +2.3% (4600)

  • Gold +131% (likely a misstatement, probably +1.31%)

  • Oil –151% (likely misstatement, probably –1.51%)

• Currencies: USD and JPY relatively flat.

• Economic Data:

  • Initial jobless claims slightly lower than expected (~2K lower).

  • Q2 Core PCE prices in line.

  • Tomorrow’s monthly PCE data still pending.

• Fed Commentary: Fed’s Waller speaking at 4 PM. Seen as dovish, may push for rate cuts regardless of PCE data.

• Other Stocks:

  • Dell reports after close; stock trading higher.

  • ABI call options being managed around $66 strike.

Overall: Markets up, Nvidia in focus, Fed still leaning dovish, watching Dell earnings and options plays.

Market open with Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow slightly higher

• Nvidia down on China chip production pause reports

• Focus on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at 10 a.m.

• Markets pricing 70–80% chance of a September rate cut

• Fed divisions: some members pushing for cuts, others for patience

• Possible shift away from average inflation targeting

• Scenarios for equities, bonds, crypto, and USD depending on Powell’s tone

• Other central bank speeches (ECB, BOJ, BOE) coming up

• Key data: Canadian retail sales at 8:30 a.m.

• NASDAQ up 55 pts after a huge 400+ pt rally yesterday (best since May).

• S&P 500 up 5 pts, Dow down 17 pts, Russell up 7 pts.

• European stocks strong: DAX +1%, Euro Stoxx +0.5%.

• Bonds down: 30Y yield up 66bps, 10Y up 4bps.

• Bitcoin down 1% after touching $115K.

• Ethereum down 2.7%, Solana -1.5%.

• Gold flat.

• Apple & Google flat pre-market.

• Nvidia down after US announces tracking chips exports and tariffs on semis & pharma.

• Amazon +0.5%, Microsoft +0.5%, Netflix flat.

• AMD earnings today — up 0.68% pre-market.

• Palantir +7% pre-market after strong Q2 beat (+12% in 24 hrs).

• Coinbase -4% on $2B convertible note issuance.

• Chinese stocks strong, YINN +2.31%.

• Semiconductor index up 1.3%.

• Nuclear stocks bouncing (SMR, OLO, NLR up ~1.5–2%).

• 10 AM: ISM Non-Manufacturing Report (watch for signs of slowdown).

• 9:45 AM: Global Services PMI expected at 55.2.

• Tariff headlines dominate:

  • Trump to raise tariffs on India, pharma, and chips.

  • Reciprocal tariffs start Thursday.

  • Japan seeking lower auto tariffs.

  • EU facing 35% tariff unless investment agreements are made.

• Trump also praised Kevin Warsh and Hassett as Fed chair candidates.

• Rate cuts possible: markets may price in 3 cuts for 2025.

• Palantir Q2: Revenue +48% YoY, $1B vs $937M est. Strong government sales.

• Intel struggling with chip manufacturing (per Reuters).

• Broadcom launched faster networking chip.

• Core Scientific facing investor pushback on CoreWeave merger.

• Cisco suffered data breach (basic profile data stolen).

• UK new car sales dropped 60% YoY.

• Tesla down 10.5% pre-market on that news.

• Amazon Australia partnering with a satellite startup to connect remote users.

🪙 Crypto & Commodities🔍 Stock Highlights📰 Key News & Events📊 Earnings & Corporate🚗 Tesla News📡 Other

META and Microsoft delivered strong earnings that catapulted the Nasdaq to new highs, fueling tech-led momentum across U.S. equities.

On the macro side, China’s PMI came in lower than expected, raising fresh concerns about global demand and economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) as they gear up to report earnings next

Markets are opening slightly higher this morning with the Nasdaq up 48 points, the S&P 500 up 7, and the Dow up 9. Gold is seeing a strong rally, up nearly 2%, while Ethereum and Solana are under pressure. Bonds remain flat after yesterday’s rally, and Bitcoin is holding around $118K.

Today is loaded with key macro data. We’ll be watching the ADP employment report, Q2 GDP (expected at 2.5%), pending home sales, and crude oil inventories. The U.S. Treasury will also announce its quarterly refunding plan, with slight increases expected in auction sizes across the curve. Market reactions could be muted until more clarity emerges.

Central bank decisions are in focus as well. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at 5.45%, but all attention is on the number of dissenters and the tone of the FOMC statement regarding future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is also expected to hold rates unchanged at 2.75%, with a press conference to follow.

Geopolitical tension is back in the spotlight. Markets await Trump’s decision on whether to extend the U.S.–China tariff pause beyond August 2. Talks with China ended without a clear resolution, and today, Trump announced a new 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1, citing unfair trade practices.

Big tech earnings will drive after-hours sentiment. Meta and Microsoft report today, with a strong focus on CapEx guidance and AI-related investments. Meta is expected to guide CapEx between $64–72B, and Microsoft is projected to spend over $80B on AI and cloud infrastructure. Both companies’ performance and guidance could impact broader AI sentiment and stocks like Nvidia and Dell.

Ford also reports earnings after the bell. Analysts expect a revenue decline, EPS of $0.33 (down 30% YoY), and continued EV losses. With its 2024 guidance suspended and pressure from tariffs and foreign competition mounting, the focus will be on margin outlook, dividend sustainability, and any signs of stabilization.

Finally, in the crypto space, markets are watching for the July 30 Bitcoin report. Eric Trump posted on X that "the best is yet to come" for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which some see as a signal of bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, Marathon Digital (MARA) reported better-than-expected earnings driven by mark-to-market gains on BTC holdings.

Stay tuned for live coverage of the FOMC at 2 p.m. and a full breakdown of today’s packed macro and earnings calendar.

Markets open with a risk-on sentiment ahead of major earnings and economic data. Nasdaq, S&P, Dow, and Russell all trending higher. European markets outperform on trade optimism.

🌍 Macro Highlights:

• US-China trade talks expected to extend 90-day truce

• Nvidia rallies on strong demand from China and AI-related optimism

• Big Tech earnings this week (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) could boost AI capex sentiment

• Mara (Marathon Digital) reports earnings today – key for BTC mining sector

• Bitcoin awaiting July 30th strategic reserve report from U.S. government

• PayPal drops on softening spending; Visa unaffected

• JOLTS and consumer confidence data in focus

• Bonds up, gold up, USD up, Euro down

📈 Crypto & Equities:

• BTC range-bound, Ethereum and Solana bouncing

• Coinbase, Mara, Riot, and other miners slightly higher

• Nvidia, AMD, Dell benefit from AI capex bets

• Market watching closely for signs of Fed rate cuts in September

Markets open flat with mixed sentiment: Nasdaq and S&P unchanged, Dow up slightly, Russell +4%. European stocks underperform, DAX -1%. Bitcoin drops 1.5% to 116.6K, while Ethereum trades higher. Gold down 1%, crude +0.4%. US yields remain stable. USD slightly up; CAD, AUD, GBP, and JPY all lower after soft Japan CPI despite BOJ hawkish tone.

Trump visits the Fed building, reiterates rate cut wishes to Powell. LVMH and Volkswagen trade higher despite mixed earnings. On the trade front, positive sentiment from US-China and US-India talks, with some EU-China comments as well.

In equities: Tesla rebounds after a Musk RoboTaxi update; MARA struggles with issuance news; Dell, NLR, and nuclear energy names strong. Bitcoin looks stuck under 120K, Solana seen as attractive near lows. Traders eye durable goods data and await next catalysts.

Markets rally on US-Japan trade deal news, easing auto tariffs and boosting investor sentiment. Tesla and Google report earnings after hours, with focus on AI, margins, and guidance. Crypto dips, oil steady, and all eyes on 20-year bond auction and AI CapEx trends.

Market Overview

• U.S. Equities: Slightly lower open; NASDAQ -22pts, S&P 500 -1pt, Dow -65pts.

• Europe: Underperforming – EuroStoxx 50 down ~1%, DAX down over 1%.

• Bonds: Pullback after yesterday’s rally. 30Y yield ~4.95%, 10Y ~4.38%, 2Y ~3.86%. Yield curve still steepening amid Powell resignation rumors.

• Crypto:

  • Bitcoin +1.4% ($119K)

  • Ethereum -2%

  • Crypto-related stocks (BITX +4%, Mara/Riot +1-2%, Bitfarms +6%)

• Commodities:

  • Gold, silver, and oil all down ~1%.

• Currencies: Flat across the board; JPY steady despite rising Japanese yields.

• Powell: Speaking today (8:30 AM); not expected to address resignation rumors or Fed independence under political pressure.

• Baumann & Lagarde: Speaking at 1 PM. ECB in blackout period before upcoming meeting – no surprises expected.

• BOJ: Gradual rate hike path continues despite political setbacks; rate to stay at 0.5% for now.

• Nvidia: Down – good for short position.

• Google: Up again after 2.8% rally yesterday; earnings tomorrow.

• Apple: +0.3%, Tesla: flat, Meta: +1.5%, Amazon: +0.39%.

• Crypto stocks: Strong moves pre-market.

• Solana ETF: +5% after +20% yesterday.

• Nuclear stocks: Bouncing after yesterday’s drop (Oklo +2%, SMR +1%).

Today’s Earnings:
SAP, Intuitive, Capital One, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, DR Horton, MSCI, Pulte, and others.

• Ongoing global tariff talks:

  • Japan-US: 2-hour meeting – aiming for common ground.

  • India-US: No trade deal expected by Aug 1.

  • Malaysia-US: Disagreements over EV tax breaks.

  • Canada-US: Discussed defense, no major news.

• Market overextended but holding up on bullish sentiment.

• Watching Google/Tesla earnings as major catalysts.

• Fed steepening trade still in play amid potential Powell exit.

• Monitoring miners, Chinese stocks, and nuclear sector rebounds.

• Keeping an eye on 9% dividend-yield stock IPO and OpenDoor retracement setup.

Fed & Central BanksStocks & EarningsGeopolitics & TradeKey Themes & Strategy

DAILY MACRO PODCAST_ STOCKS FLAT AHEAD OF RETAIL SALES, CLAIMS AND PHILLY FED, NFLX EARNINGS