In this episode, we break down the real state of the real estate market—nationally and in Austin, Texas. Mortgage rates are volatile, inventory is stacking up, and buyer psychology is shifting fast. We revisit predictions from just a month ago, analyze why rates aren’t moving as expected despite favorable CPI and PPI data, and explore what’s happening with the 10-year Treasury. On the local front, we dive deep into Austin’s housing correction, comparing current conditions to the 2011 market and exploring which segments—like downtown condos and new construction—are getting hit hardest. Is this just a correction or a full-blown bubble burst? And more importantly, what does it mean for agents and homeowners in 2024? Whether you’re trying to make sense of mortgage forecasts, wondering how to advise clients, or just want a brutally honest take on what’s coming, this conversation delivers. Tune in to hear our bull, base, and bear case scenarios—and learn why business success in this market comes down to attitude, strategy, and execution.🗂 Topics Discussed-- National real estate market update-- Mortgage rate volatility and 10-year treasury trends-- Predictions for rates: bull, base, and bear case scenarios-- Local Austin real estate update: are we in a bubble burst?-- Months of inventory, buyer behavior, and neighborhood segmentation-- Differences between resale vs. new construction dynamics-- Agent strategies in a high-inventory, high-DOM market-- Why payment is better than rate in buyer conversations-- Market psychology: consumer sentiment & fear/greed index-- Long-term optimism vs. short-term business planning-- Historical comparisons to 2011 and market overcorrection-- Final thoughts: how agents survive & thrive in today’s market⏱ Chapters with Timestamps00:00 – Introduction: National & Austin Real Estate Overview01:00 – Rate Volatility & Market Misfires02:20 – Treasury Yields & Technical Analysis04:00 – CPI, PPI, and Economic Signals05:00 – Long-Term Yield Trends & Global Influences07:00 – Austin Market Snapshot & 2011 Comparisons09:00 – Market Correction from Pandemic Bubble12:00 – Consumer Sentiment & Fear/Greed Index15:00 – The Need for Market Stability16:00 – Mortgage Purchase Activity Trends18:00 – Austin vs. National Market Behavior20:00 – Buyer Psychology & Days on Market23:00 – Rate Predictions for Summer 202426:00 – Why Buyers Should Focus on Payment30:00 – Deep Dive into Austin Inventory Levels34:00 – Comparing 2011–2024 Inventory Data36:00 – Expired Listings, Withdrawals & Market Psychology37:00 – Condo Market Collapse vs. New Construction39:00 – Buyer Expectations & Listing Strategies41:00 – Agent Outlook in a Tough Market43:00 – Year-Over-Year Market Decline Perspective45:00 – Acceptance of High Rates & Pricing Strategies48:00 – Historical Rate Moves & Possibility of 5.99%50:00 – How to Business Plan Around Different Rate Scenarios52:00 – Final Thoughts: Attitude, Strategy & Service🔑 KeywordsAustin real estate market update 2024national housing market trends 2024mortgage rate forecast summer 2024is Austin real estate in a bubblereal estate strategy in high inventory10-year treasury impact on mortgagehow to talk about mortgage rates with clientshome price correction 2024best advice for real estate agents in 2024Austin housing market predictionsFed rate cuts and housingconsumer sentiment and real estatereal estate economic outlooknational vs local real estate trends