In this episode, we break down the real state of the real estate market—nationally and in Austin, Texas. Mortgage rates are volatile, inventory is stacking up, and buyer psychology is shifting fast. We revisit predictions from just a month ago, analyze why rates aren’t moving as expected despite favorable CPI and PPI data, and explore what’s happening with the 10-year Treasury. On the local front, we dive deep into Austin’s housing correction, comparing current conditions to the 2011 market and exploring which segments—like downtown condos and new construction—are getting hit hardest. Is this just a correction or a full-blown bubble burst? And more importantly, what does it mean for agents and homeowners in 2024? Whether you’re trying to make sense of mortgage forecasts, wondering how to advise clients, or just want a brutally honest take on what’s coming, this conversation delivers. Tune in to hear our bull, base, and bear case scenarios—and learn why business success in this market comes down to attitude, strategy, and execution.🗂 Topics Discussed-- National real estate market update-- Mortgage rate volatility and 10-year treasury trends-- Predictions for rates: bull, base, and bear case scenarios-- Local Austin real estate update: are we in a bubble burst?-- Months of inventory, buyer behavior, and neighborhood segmentation-- Differences between resale vs. new construction dynamics-- Agent strategies in a high-inventory, high-DOM market-- Why payment is better than rate in buyer conversations-- Market psychology: consumer sentiment & fear/greed index-- Long-term optimism vs. short-term business planning-- Historical comparisons to 2011 and market overcorrection-- Final thoughts: how agents survive & thrive in today’s market⏱ Chapters with Timestamps00:00 – Introduction: National & Austin Real Estate Overview01:00 – Rate Volatility & Market Misfires02:20 – Treasury Yields & Technical Analysis04:00 – CPI, PPI, and Economic Signals05:00 – Long-Term Yield Trends & Global Influences07:00 – Austin Market Snapshot & 2011 Comparisons09:00 – Market Correction from Pandemic Bubble12:00 – Consumer Sentiment & Fear/Greed Index15:00 – The Need for Market Stability16:00 – Mortgage Purchase Activity Trends18:00 – Austin vs. National Market Behavior20:00 – Buyer Psychology & Days on Market23:00 – Rate Predictions for Summer 202426:00 – Why Buyers Should Focus on Payment30:00 – Deep Dive into Austin Inventory Levels34:00 – Comparing 2011–2024 Inventory Data36:00 – Expired Listings, Withdrawals & Market Psychology37:00 – Condo Market Collapse vs. New Construction39:00 – Buyer Expectations & Listing Strategies41:00 – Agent Outlook in a Tough Market43:00 – Year-Over-Year Market Decline Perspective45:00 – Acceptance of High Rates & Pricing Strategies48:00 – Historical Rate Moves & Possibility of 5.99%50:00 – How to Business Plan Around Different Rate Scenarios52:00 – Final Thoughts: Attitude, Strategy & Service🔑 KeywordsAustin real estate market update 2024national housing market trends 2024mortgage rate forecast summer 2024is Austin real estate in a bubblereal estate strategy in high inventory10-year treasury impact on mortgagehow to talk about mortgage rates with clientshome price correction 2024best advice for real estate agents in 2024Austin housing market predictionsFed rate cuts and housingconsumer sentiment and real estatereal estate economic outlooknational vs local real estate trends

In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Phil Sexton delve into the ongoing debate between Zillow and Compass, focusing on their respective positions in the real estate market and how these impact consumers. They discuss the concept of 'coming soon' listings, transparency in the market, and the implications of hidden inventory strategies employed by Compass. The dialogue emphasizes the need for a balanced perspective, recognizing both the benefits and drawbacks of each company's approach to real estate. In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Phil Sexton delve into the complexities of off-market listings, the influence of Zillow on real estate practices, and the implications of MLS rules. They discuss the importance of transparency for sellers, the challenges posed by private exclusives, and the necessity of complete data sets for informed decision-making. The dialogue emphasizes the need for cooperation among real estate professionals to enhance consumer choice and market efficiency.Chapters00:00 – Introduction and Context of the Discussion04:30 – Understanding Zillow and Compass: Perspectives on Consumer Benefit12:54 – The Role of Coming Soon Listings in Real Estate18:02 – The Debate on Transparency and Market Access26:12 – Hidden Inventory: The Strategy Behind Compass's Approach32:22 – The Future of Real Estate Listings and Consumer Impact34:44 – Navigating Off-Market Listings37:21 – The Role of Zillow in Real Estate40:42 – Understanding MLS Rules and Regulations44:50 – The Impact of Private Exclusives49:54 – Transparency and Seller Awareness55:53 – The Importance of Complete Data Sets01:01:27 – The Future of Real Estate ListingsTakeaways-- The conversation highlights the importance of balanced representation in real estate discussions.-- Zillow and Compass both claim to prioritize consumer benefits, but their strategies align with profitability.-- Coming soon listings serve as a testing ground for pricing and market interest without accumulating days on market.-- Transparency in real estate listings is crucial for consumer trust and market efficiency.-- Hidden inventory strategies can be both beneficial and detrimental to consumers, depending on execution.-- The debate around real estate practices is nuanced and requires consideration of multiple perspectives.-- Agents need to be aware of the implications of listing strategies on market perception.-- The role of technology in real estate is evolving, impacting how listings are marketed and accessed.-- Consumer choice is a central theme in the discussion of real estate practices.-- The future of real estate listings may involve more exclusive strategies that could complicate market access. The fragmentation of data in real estate is problematic.-- Off-market listings can serve strong use cases.-- Zillow's influence on real estate marketing is significant.-- Understanding MLS rules is crucial for compliance.-- Private exclusives may limit market exposure for sellers.-- Transparency is essential for informed consumer decisions.-- Complete data sets are vital for accurate market analysis.-- Real estate agents must navigate off-market strategies carefully.-- Collaboration among agents can improve market outcomes.-- The future of real estate listings is uncertain and evolving.

In this conversation, Eric Bramlett, Max Leaman, and Aaron Scruggs discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and local market trends. They explore the impact of economic factors on mortgage rates, the importance of understanding local market conditions, and strategies for agents to navigate a changing market. The discussion emphasizes the significance of building relationships with clients and adapting to market fluctuations while maintaining a focus on cash flow management and effective pricing strategies.00:00 Introduction and Market Overview01:53 Understanding Mortgage Rates and Economic Factors10:59 Impact of Tariffs and Global Confidence18:43 Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment24:04 Local Market Trends and Price Reductions37:31 Understanding Pricing Dynamics in Real Estate45:14 Navigating Local Market Variations52:38 Analyzing Market Indicators and Demand58:21 Strategizing for Business in a Changing MarketTakeaways-- The market has seen fluctuations due to economic factors and consumer sentiment.-- Mortgage rates are influenced by treasury yields and economic conditions.-- Consumer confidence plays a significant role in real estate activity.-- Local market conditions can vary significantly from national trends.-- Price reductions are a key indicator of market health and buyer sentiment.-- Pending units are a leading indicator of future sales activity.-- Agents should focus on building relationships and providing value to clients.-- Understanding submarkets is crucial for effective pricing strategies.-- Cash flow management is essential for agents and businesses during downturns.-- Building strong habits during tough times can lead to long-term success.

Eric Bramlett and Max discuss the current state of the real estate and mortgage markets, focusing on insights from 2024 and predictions for 2025. They explore the interplay between mortgage rates, inflation, and the job market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and educating clients. The discussion also highlights the challenges faced by the resale market compared to new construction, the impact of economic indicators on housing trends, and the potential for pent-up demand to drive future market recovery. In this conversation, Eric Bramlett discusses the current state of the real estate market, focusing on seller expectations in a low-rate environment, the implications of the NAR settlement, and the evolving role of AI in the industry. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, preparing for future conditions, and leveraging basic strategies for success. The discussion also touches on the influence of cryptocurrency on real estate and forecasts growth in outskirt areas of Austin.

Takeaways:

In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Matt Butterfield discuss the concept of lifestyle design, career transitions, and the importance of aligning business goals with personal life goals. Matt shares his journey from software sales to home building, emphasizing the need for efficiency and planning in both business and life. They explore the significance of having a life plan, setting clear life goals, and the impact of effective time management on achieving a fulfilling lifestyle. The discussion highlights practical strategies for integrating personal values into business practices, ultimately leading to a more balanced and satisfying life. In this conversation, Matt discusses the importance of challenging societal norms and questioning the traditional expectations of work and life. He emphasizes the need for skepticism in decision-making, particularly in business, and highlights the significance of automation and efficiency. Matt also explores the concept of 'brain damage' in business, advocating for the art of saying no to unfit clients. He reflects on how life changes influence business goals and the importance of balancing adventure and fulfillment in life. Ultimately, he redefines the concept of retirement, advocating for a life filled with mini-retirements and meaningful experiences throughout the year.

In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Max Leaman interview Brett McCracken, an expert in lead conversion and customer experience. They discuss the importance of building relationships with clients, the role of technology in the mortgage industry, and the impact of interest rates on consumer behavior. They also explore the challenges faced by loan officers in a competitive market and the value of providing exceptional service. Overall, the conversation highlights the need for loan officers to prioritize human connection and personalized experiences to stand out in the industry. During the conversation, Brett McCracken discusses the lack of financial advice provided by loan officers and real estate agents. He highlights that most loan officers do not ask important questions about a borrower's financial situation or offer different options for mortgage terms. Similarly, real estate agents often fail to ask for contact information or provide a personalized experience for potential buyers. McCracken also shares his experience secret shopping at banks and real estate agencies, revealing instances of poor customer service and missed opportunities for cross-selling. The conversation explores the role of technology, specifically AI, in the real estate and mortgage industries. The speakers discuss the potential impact of AI on various aspects of the business, such as lead generation, customer experience, and cost reduction. They also touch on the importance of human connection and the value of teaching and mentoring. Overall, the conversation highlights the need for businesses to adapt and leverage technology to stay competitive.

Eric Bramlett and Max Leaman discuss the potential impact of the proposed changes in the real estate industry. They start by reflecting on Max's experience with the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, which brought significant changes to mortgage lending. They then introduce the concept of possible, plausible, and probable predictions and emphasize the importance of labeling predictions accurately. The conversation moves on to discuss the actual process changes, including the requirement for buyer's agents to have compensation discussions with their clients. They also address the fear and concerns surrounding these changes and highlight the value that good agents provide to buyers. The conversation concludes by addressing the possibility of new models emerging in the industry and the likelihood of significant disruption. The conversation discusses the history and challenges of discount models in the real estate industry. Eric Bramlett shares his experience with discount models and explains why he believes they are unlikely to succeed. He also discusses the preference of consumers for contingency models and the importance of communicating value as a real estate agent. Max Leaman adds insights on lending guidelines and the potential impact of the new settlement agreement on financing. They also touch on the possibility of contract changes and the role of buyer's agent commissions. In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Max Leaman discuss the potential impact of the proposed changes to buyer's agent commissions. They emphasize the importance of having a clear policy on commission negotiations and sticking to it. Eric shares his experience of setting a policy of not reducing his commission for buyers and how it helped filter out problem clients. They also discuss the potential changes to the contract and the need for buyer's rep agreements. They address concerns about VA buyers and the method of determining commission amounts. Overall, they believe that experienced agents who can articulate their value will thrive in the changing market.

Emerson Smith started Pushnami at his kitchen table in 2016 and bootstrapped it to become one of the fastest growing companies in the Texas region. Pushnami delivers 1 billion push notification messages per day and is tracking to $100M+ in revenue in 2024. Emerson discusses the critical roles that machine learning and AI play in Pushnami's success. He discusses company culture and the challenges to building company culture in today's remote work environment.

Lucas, Max, and Eric explore the impact of technology on communication, specifically focusing on the importance of visual presentation and video in various contexts. Luc shares his background and transition to video, emphasizing the significance of eye contact and authenticity in virtual interactions. The discussion also delves into the role of video in social media and the challenges of building authenticity in personal branding. The conversation covers the challenges of creating content, podcast statistics and the tendency for podcasts to fizzle, the importance of niche communities, the use of log lines in communication, the benefits of standing during presentations, tips for small business owners creating social media content, using Loom for video communication, and Lucas' YouTube channel and InsideTexas.com.

Eric Bramlett and Max Leaman discuss the 2023 real estate and mortgage market and provide insights into the 2024 market predictions. They recap the decline in the real estate market in 2022 due to mortgage rates and the subsequent impact on the mortgage market in 2023. They explain the relationship between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates and discuss the factors that influence mortgage rates. They also analyze the impact of jobs, mortgage rates, and pent-up demand on the real estate market. The conversation highlights the challenges faced by industry professionals and the opportunities for growth in the market. They express cautious optimism for the 2024 market and discuss the predictions from CME FedWatch. In this conversation, Eric Bramlett and Max Leaman discuss their predictions for mortgage rates in 2024, the potential impact of the election on the real estate market, lessons learned from 2023, and strategies for success in 2024. They emphasize the importance of building and maintaining relationships and staying passionate about the industry. Both Eric and Max express excitement for the future and the growth opportunities ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Overview