As of March 17, 2026, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had left more than 150 ships waiting outside the chokepoint, followed at least 21 merchant ship attacks since March 1, and helped push Brent crude as high as $126 per barrel.

This episode tests Ray Dalio's "Final Battle" thesis against the actual record: the mining campaign, the convoy shortfall, the Suez 1956 analogy, and the possibility that yuan settled oil corridors could intensify pressure on the dollar system faster than Washington can restore control.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep85

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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