On March 12, 2026, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2817 condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states with 13 votes in favor. Russia and China abstained rather than vetoing. Iran's President Pezeshkian laid out three ceasefire conditions for the first time: reparations, nuclear rights recognition, and binding security guarantees. While diplomats talked, Iranian explosive drone boats attacked two oil tankers in Iraqi waters, killing one crew member and forcing Iraq to shut down all oil terminal operations. Six ships were attacked in the Persian Gulf in 24 hours. Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public statement as Supreme Leader. Oil climbed back above 100 dollars.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep79

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 11, 2026, CNN reported a Western intelligence source confirming that Russia is providing Iran with specific drone attack tactics, the same Shahed swarming strategies Russia developed and refined over two years of war in Ukraine. Five days earlier, the Washington Post broke that Russia had begun sharing satellite imagery showing the locations of American warships, aircraft, and radar systems.

The Pentagon says it is not concerned. Steve Witkoff says take Russia at their word. But four U.S. officials confirmed the intelligence sharing to NBC News. This episode reconstructs the timeline from February 28 through March 11, tests the claims against sourcing, and answers one question: is Russia fighting a proxy war against the United States through Iran?

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep78

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 11, 2026, President Trump told Axios there is practically nothing left to target in Iran. On the same day, Iran attacked three more cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC declared regional banks and financial centers as military targets, and the IEA announced the largest emergency oil release in history: 400 million barrels. A second girls school was hit by a double strike. Civilian deaths in Iran crossed 1,000 including 181 children under 10.

This episode tests Trump claim against the battlefield data: CENTCOM destroyed an entire class of Iranian warships and 16 minelayers, but Iran retains 80 to 90 percent of its small boat and mine laying capacity. The IEA release sounds massive, but at 100 million barrels per day of global consumption, it buys roughly 4 days. Oil is still up 17 percent from pre war levels. Iran warns of $200 a barrel.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep77

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 10, 2026, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared it the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran" since the war began. While Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei launched his first missile with "At Your Service, Sayyid Mojtaba" written on the casing, the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 97% closure, and a deleted U.S. Navy tweet caused a $10 per barrel oil swing in minutes.

This episode walks through five developments from Day 10: the expanded targeting of Iranian nuclear and command sites, Mojtaba's consolidation of IRGC loyalty, the near-total shutdown of Hormuz shipping, the oil market chaos driven by social media and policy signals, and the fractures emerging among U.S. allies as Germany publicly broke from American strategy.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep76

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Produced by Island Investigation

On March 9, 2026, France announced it is deploying its only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, along with 8 frigates and 2 Mistral amphibious carriers, to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. France is not joining the American war. This is a separate, European-led naval force, with Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain each contributing warships.

But France is not the only power heading to the strait. China deployed its 48th fleet from Djibouti, back-channeling with Iran for safe passage. Russia, China, and Iran are running joint naval exercises inside the strait during an active war. Three naval forces, three agendas, one 21-mile chokepoint that carries 20% of the world's oil, where tanker traffic has dropped 90% and 10 vessels have been attacked in the first week.

The trigger: a Shahed drone hit the British military base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, the first drone attack on EU territory. Macron declared: "When Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked."

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep75

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 8, 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, a succession engineered by the IRGC through an online meeting on March 3. Hours later, Iran launched Operation True Promise 4, striking not just Israel but six Gulf states simultaneously: Qatar took 17 ballistic missiles, Kuwait airport fuel depots caught fire, and the UAE intercepted inbound missiles.

Meanwhile, Israel launched Operation Roaring Lion, destroying the IRGC Air Force headquarters and hitting Isfahan's Optical Industries complex for a second time. Brent crude crossed $119 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz recorded only 3 tanker crossings, and Bahrain's state oil company declared force majeure. CSIS estimates the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost $3.7 billion. Seven American soldiers are now confirmed killed in action.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep74

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Iran's president did something no leader of the Islamic Republic has done in 47 years: he publicly apologized to neighboring countries for missiles hitting their territory. Then Iran kept hitting them. The Assembly of Experts has picked a successor to Khamenei, but they cannot say his name because Israel promised to kill him. And for the first time in the war, Israeli strikes set Iranian oil infrastructure on fire.

This episode covers the full Day 8 timeline: Pezeshkian's unprecedented apology, the first confirmed oil strikes, Strait of Hormuz transit data, updated casualty figures, and what the cracks inside the regime mean for the war's trajectory.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep73

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 7, 2026, a classified National Intelligence Council assessment concluded that even a large-scale assault is unlikely to topple Iran's regime. The same day, the President of the United States threatened complete destruction. JINSA counts missile launches down 94 percent and 43 warships sunk. Brookings says air strikes alone have never toppled a government. Both sides have real data. Neither side has a guaranteed outcome.

This episode presents the military case for regime change (JINSA, AEI, Heritage Foundation) alongside the historical case against it (Brookings, CFR, Carnegie), the classified intelligence assessment, and the dueling diplomatic signals of March 7. Two theories, no verdict. The listener is the jury.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep72

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force and successor to Qasem Soleimani, survived every strike that killed everyone around him: the Nasrallah bunker bombing in September 2024, the Safieddine strike weeks later, Operation Roar of the Lion in June 2025, and the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei on March 1, 2026. On Day 7 of Operation Epic Fury, three competing narratives emerged: he defected to Israel as a confirmed Mossad asset, he was detained and executed by the IRGC for espionage, or the entire story is disinformation.

This episode investigates the Qaani spy question alongside four Day 7 developments: Trump demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" on Truth Social, 50 Israeli jets destroying Khamenei's underground bunker, a Washington Post exclusive revealing Russia is feeding Iran satellite targeting data on American forces, and Iranian missiles striking Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait as the war spills across the Gulf.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep71

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

On March 5, 2026, President Trump told Axios he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran's next supreme leader, calling the assassinated Khamenei's son "a lightweight" and comparing the process to his role in Venezuela. It is the first explicit admission that regime change is a war aim of Operation Epic Fury.

This episode tracks four developments that reshaped Day 6 of the conflict: Trump's regime change declaration, the CSIS analysis showing the first 100 hours cost $3.7 billion with $3.5 billion unbudgeted, Iranian drones striking an airport in Azerbaijan (a country not party to the war), and the launch of a Kurdish ground offensive into northwest Iran backed by CIA and Mossad coordination. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told NBC News that Iran is ready for a ground invasion and has not asked for a ceasefire.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://wardesk.fm/?episode=ep70

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.