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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit
(02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank
(15:03) VanEck Ad
(15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
(18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB")
(21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem
(23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market
(25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt
(29:59) How This Might Play Out
(32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks
(35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities
(40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe
(43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Business

Investing

Careers

Management & Marketing

Business News

Shopping

News

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
(26:13) VanEck Ad
(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market
(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
(01:07:49) The Labor Market
(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Historically Unattractive” To Leveraged Investors

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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies
(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge
(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe
(25:41) Economic Outlook
(29:27) VanEck Ad
(30:28)
(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies
(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies
(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit
(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007
(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)
(01:00:27) View On Stock Market
(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
(21:43) VanEck ad
(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies
(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case

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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) The Script
(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes
(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession
(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?
(17:13) VaEck Ad
(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)
(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation
(30:17) May Fed Meeting
(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)
(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year
(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy
(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?
(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise
(44:53) The Japanese Yen
(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States
(47:37) Chinese Equity Market
(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?
(19:38) VanEck Ad
(20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle
(29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future
(34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation
(42:03) The Fed
(55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation
(01:04:20) The Japanese Yen
(01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank

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