In ECON 101, we learn if Demand stays constant and Supply decreases, then Price goes up. During COVID, Supply was constricted, hence all the Price Inflation.
Now, Supply is back online, and we had deflation of -0.1% in December, so does that mean The Fed will change its policy soon?
Of course, that’s a complicated question…
Fortunately, renowned economist, Dr. Peter Linneman, is willing to help us sort this out!
Dr. Linneman is a Principal of Linneman Associates, real estate investor, strategic consultant, and Emeritus Professor at the Wharton School of Business, and on today’s episode, we discuss inflation, interest rates, and everything else affecting the economy and investments!
The Fed seems to want to continue restricting Demand through increased unemployment by increasing interest rates.
However, given the relative strength of the consumer in the current economy and the current undersupply of labor, Dr. Linneman hopes The Fed will not continue to raise rates for very much longer, because, with inflation already beginning to come down, holding interest rates high for too long will likely end up doing more harm than good.
Additionally, last year the population grew by 4.7M, but only 1.2M jobs were created, so it seems counterintuitive to pursue policies that discourage new job formation given that results in wasted human capital.
On the flip side, some argue that the threat posed by the possibility that the slowdown in inflation is temporary means that The Fed should maintain its policy. In other words, the threat of undercorrecting is great than the threat of overcorrecting.
What do you all think?
Keep Making Milestones,
Ben Malech
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If you want to learn more about Dr. Linneman, you can find him at:
https://www.linnemanassociates.com/
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Ben’s Website: https://benmalech.com/
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Ben’s email: [email protected]
Resources Mentioned:
The Great Age Reboot: Cracking the Longevity Code for a Younger Tomorrow - Michael Roizen, Dr. Peter Linneman
Milton Friedman - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman