The real estate market forecast for 2023. You know, we get forecasts often, but it’s important to keep up with them because the market is changing and stabilizing. And we need to, you know, be aware of what’s happening out there.

Where is your doom and gloom? Where is your hope and optimism? Let’s take a look.

So this is not an old car. That was my cue for him to show. There we go. We’re showing the screen off here. Like I didn’t have to. I was like, oh, my God. I say, oh, you’re just going to happen. Ten markets most likely to see a downturn.

Oh, do you all want to guess? Well, we got some pictures here, so who can guess just based on the city pictures. Okay, so what do we see?

Well, it’s not Paris. No. So I’m guessing Vegas in the upper left? Yeah, maybe he blows up the.

Is that D.C.? Looks like some water that we see here and palm trees. So those are warm locations.

It’s got to be California and or Florida possibly, I believe.

A Bay Area and, you know, a capital area. So let’s see where the where we’re going to have some market downturns. Let’s see.

We shall take a look at the ten top markets to see. They looked at the 90.

These are at risk for a downturn. Yeah. So here’s where I you know, the news you hear downturn and you just think that the apocalypse is happening and a downturn doesn’t mean the bottom is dropping out. Right. What it means is we are stabilizing. And I this is what I believe and we can stop right there on the the market has been like increasing increasing increasing and I see Boise on here. It’s been crazy there.

Right? I see Bakersfield, California.

Yeah, we visited now they’re all moving to Texas.

So no, there’s a risk factor here that goes along with that. And when I also looked at this, they had let’s pull down just a little bit more. So I see is these places had downturns because they had been going up.

Well, I mean, it’s just not sustainable, right, to continue that. And that’s where I always fall back to being comfortable where we live and grateful where we live because we have seen our prices increase, but not in the magnitude of we’ve seen some of these other areas.

And so with stabilizing, I think you’re not going to see things drastically change, but you’ll see them even out and give a little bit more opportunity that we’re seeing to buyers.

And so let’s look at the colors. So color will often show us something here. So we have Redfin. They have a risk factor of the downturn. And the darker the blue, the less risky it is, the more the red, the higher the likelihood of a downturn or the higher risk. Right.

So if we look where we are, we’re in a a light, a light blue. So, you know, a little bit better. It looks like maybe Austin or Houston is a well, I thought that it should look like Austin. I thought, no, but they’ve I mean, it’s been crazy, too. So I see all of these cities.

Of course, it kind of makes sense that the cities that we’ve been hearing about that are just out of control will now even out. So I think you just have to be careful how you interpret the the words that they use for these articles, right?

It is. Yes. And it’s nice to see on a national level where they are and then where you happen to be locally. Yeah, because perspective really helps.

And if you go back to, you know, we are in a different situation, but if you go back to where the markets that struggled in the past, I mean, you kind of see it with exception of Austin or Texas, you kind of see the same cities, right?

Yeah. And then what it appears is that Fort Worth is slightly more likely to experience a downturn than the Dallas market. You see it shifted over just a little bit. There’s that red right behind it.

Do you guys feel like there’s like this competition between Dallas and Fort Worth? No, I think there are two totally different areas.

They operate together because they’re close together, but they do feel totally different.

I do. I don’t often hear people saying like, I’m either going to

Do you have a crack in your tile floor? A little crack. Hairline crack. A big crack. It doesn’t much matter. And you need to fix it. And the problem normally is that you’ll have to go in and take that tile out and replace the whole tile, and then you’ll have a problem matching the grout because it’s been there for a while.

Maybe you can’t find the same tile, whatever that happens to be right. And there is a solution.

So don’t worry about that. It’s a much easier solution.

Well, thank you, Shana. We’re going to discuss that right now and show you how easy it could be with magic easy tile. They’re easy.

Magic, easy takes that crack right away.

Yeah, pretty much. It’s about how it works. Pretty much. So let’s make it easy on you.

I will say I’ve seen people try to fill cracks, and I think what they do is try to fill them with grout and match the tile or something. And you can always tell and it looks bad. But we had a a small crack in our bathroom tile and it’s been there for quite a while, but we’re trying to make some of these small repairs.

And I told Mike, I said somewhat one of our past clients had I was trying to find out who it was because they had their tile filled like some cracks and you couldn’t even tell. It was amazing. Yeah.

They brought a professional in to do the job. They brought somebody in. Shana was like, We’re going to have to bring this guy in to do this job. And I’m like.

So I got home very late yesterday and Mike’s like, Do you see any cracks in there? No. I mean, I couldn’t find it.

So let’s go ahead and show off the product first to start with. So waste of money hiring tile professionals. You can hire Mike.

You can do it yourself. It’s an easy DIY situation. So this is the bundle here that would probably fix most problems and in a standard home because they have multiple different colors. I went with the low cost solution, just brought one color because I knew what I was looking for.

And this one here happened to come with four or five different colors for 43 bucks. You can get it tomorrow and have it all fixed. You can put the colors together to make the exact color match that you need if it’s a solid color. But it works really well.

Yeah, and it was super simple. It didn’t take me long at all. And then I fixed the tile crack.

You can literally. Yeah, it was amazing. It’s funny that I found something similar for furniture. If you have a a little knick in your furniture. I found these pins like paint pins and stained pins and took it to a client’s home and touched up some cabinets.

So very, very similar. Yeah, I would have to give a five star review on this one myself if looking at it, they have a bunch of different colors, types, whatever. But it appeared to be totally good. Yeah. It’s not noticeable at all.

Problems not find it? No. Nope. In just a matter of a couple of minutes.

It’s awesome. Yeah. So it works for all different types of solutions. Way better because initially the thought was we’re going to have to take this tile out.

And when you take that tile out, the grout is going to be a problem because it’s not going to match. And then we’re going to do this and then we’re not to clean the grout and redo this. And then it’s like, Well, if we can’t do that and that doesn’t work, then we have to replace like the whole floor.

So we’re like, Oh, but how much? $43.

Yeah, well, this. I only bought one color. I bought one color and I think it was 15 bucks for one color. Or you pay $43 and you get like five colors or something. I just went with just the one. Yeah. Let me grab and show off what else they have to say here from their store. They say that you can repair cracks, scratches, holes in chips, right? That’s right. I don’t know if this works on glass tile.

I would say it probably does not work well because it kind of changes the color of the tile when you have a crack on it. So those glass tiles can be tough, but it definitely worked on I don’t know if it was porcelain, cerami

Wealth from real estate and just a couple easy charts I was looking through and I saw some of these articles and saw some charts and I was like, Whoa, that really shows a lot. So let’s go ahead and split our screen and bring up that bring up the article that we have referenced here.

And take a look, see if we would. All right. So let’s see our charts. We’ll scroll down just a little bit and see what we’re looking at. And the first one here is wealth inequity is rising across America. Inequality is rising. The top 10% have 70%, 76% of the household wealth. That’s crazy.

And then the next 40% have 23%. The bottom 50% have 1%. Wow. I didn’t know that the bottom 50% of all the people would have 1% of all the wealth in the country. It’s 1%. That’s like, really, really small.

Yeah. Like, didn’t really register.

Now it is really crazy. And then here’s the here’s another chart. If we can blow this one up just a little bit underneath it, omkar or find a way to interact with that chart just a little bit. The distribution of family wealth between these different time frames. You’re going to see what we can get here for some interaction and open this up just a little bit. Maybe blow her up. There we go.

You see that?

Well, they won’t be able to. All right. So what we have is the percentage that is with each different. So this shows the distribution of the wealth as it currently is, that the top 1%.

From 63 to 2016. How much of it it has, the distribution of where the money is that the bottom 50% has 1%, and then that the bottom 10% actually has negative money. They have negative household wealth. Negative household wealth. They’re not worth much.

So this is showing where all the wealth is in the country and how it relates to it. And then the next chart is going to show how it relates to real estate and home ownership, because home ownership is a big deal that goes into this. Yeah. And it goes on to talk about stock markets and then owning real estate and owning assets.

Yes. If you don’t own the assets, then you don’t have the wealth and the appreciation.

And yeah, because it goes up over time, an appreciating assets are very important to do. So looking at those, there’s a ton of tax benefits that we’ve talked about. Yeah. Yeah.

It’s just amazing to see when you see a chart that, you know, the top 1% has this much and this is what homes are worth. Why you should buy the home.

Yeah, no matter what. It’s really important. Economic factors are if you can buy a home, buy a home.

Yeah. So 20. That one right there. That chart had some good words on it. If you scroll down, just. There we go. Perfect. So in 2012, the average American home price was 163. It’s closer to 338 now. So it’s up almost 200,000.

200% in ten years. Yeah. And household income has went from 57 to 67000.

That’s it. Yeah. So that’s all people have made the average. Yeah. And not much of an increase in household income now. But your house going up by that much shows how much more you could be making. Right, if you owned a home during that time frame and made $200,000 on your home.

But does it also show that the pay pay increases should maybe be looked at? Well, it’s a real it’s a real asset now.

I think these two items also are doing two things to us. When you get some information, sometimes you have misleading facts and you can make them look like you want. They picked it at the absolute low of where the homes were, and then they picked it at what would be perceived as the high and then also the income correlates to that. So I bet you’ll see incomes going up later on.

So I think we picked like the two numbers and put them over each other and all of a sudden you have this massive thing and it looks very different. But when you have $200,000 of household gain in appreciation over a ten year time frame, on average, that type of money you just can’t make and save.

Can we look at the like, where are we getting this information from?

This one came from broker age

New features in NTREIS. New features? Yeah. Well done, Shana. That’s awesome. All right, so.

It’s a little. I like this little feature. We’re going to get over to my s log in so I can log in and show you guys just a quick little thing here. But if you are in nitrous and you’re searching for a property and you see inaccurate information, there’s now a way that you can report that just with a click of a button. So let me show you. We’re just going to pop in Frisco here. Now we have to select the city.

Some new changes. All right. So when you’re looking at a property, all right, and you click on it, you’re going to now notice up here there’s a little triangle with an exclamation mark. So if you see that maybe a school’s wrong or somebody has put something in here that you know is against the rules that you shouldn’t do, like no showings for ten days, something like that.

Or you see that you’ve talked to an agent, you’re like, look, they’ve they’ve told you they’ve already accepted an offer and it’s still showing active. Then you can report that. So when you click on the the little yellow button what happened will happen.

Listing data checker dot com. So it has parcel ID. So if your parcel id is incorrect, I don’t know who would know that, but maybe somebody would address verification. This could fall into we’ve had those issues with property following in Prosper or Salina and someone may want it in one city, but it goes by your taxation city and then change in status, inaccurate information.

So if you see that and inappropriate words in the remarks, this is basically for fair housing violations. If somebody is putting inappropriate things that you feel are offensive, then now there’s a button and you can report that. So you could put that information in here. It goes directly to your MLS board and there it goes to the brokers and and the appropriate people.

So you don’t you don’t have to send it to Terry at our mills. You just do it right here. So there you go. So use that, you guys, if you see something, it takes 20 seconds to do. So please make sure you’re doing that and using that button.

And I would feel that that’s important as well because what we have there is the whole thing with being a realtor is having the best database and having the correct information when the information is wrong or you dilute the database or you don’t have all of the data, that’s when the whole realtor thing starts to crumble. Yeah. And when it starts not working. So I do highly encourage people.

And you make sure That you’re. I also want to remind people, you know, and this is what I tell people, I am starting to hear a lot from other agents just because of my position at CCAR. They reach directly out directly to me with these different things and I say, you know what? If this is something that you’re frustrated with or you feel needs to be changed, then send an email, send an email to me, I’ll forward it on.

Or you can just go straight to CCAR, but you have to voice your concerns or your suggestions or your frustrations or nothing happens. So don’t keep talking about something. Take action and do something about it, and that’s going to make us all better.

Zillow meet tick tock. It’s a new platform called Playhouse. There’s an article on this. I don’t actually have this app installed, but we should take a look at it and see if it’s appropriate for some of you guys. But allegedly the whole idea is for realtors to be able to interact socially with properties and do some different things with it. So I don’t know Zillow.

I think it could be pretty good. Let’s go ahead and take a look at it. Pull up that screen and here we go. So what we have here is this is the app. It’s called Play House. And if you kind of scroll on down through here, what you’re going to see is you’re able to interact with the properties, show it on the screen.

Interesting. It’s a price guessing game.

There’s all different types of things that you can do on it. And so you can play the, you know, the stuff in the background. You can comment on it, you can be in the video, you can do all different types of things with it. You can play music. So I don’t know.

I think it’s something that’s kind of kind of interesting. And I bet it turns into something.

I bet it does. And I bet you have to be. So it’s not just for realtors, it’s for anyone.

But you have to have a Zillow account.

And it’s a way that you would interact on this. And I don’t know, I bet it gets a lot of a lot of views and people that are big on social media, I bet this would work out really well.

So it’s going to show that if you’re listing is on Zillow, you’re going to get more traffic and interaction.

And yeah, no, they’re definitely good like that. There’s no question about it that once you have the platform, you can have all these different types of things.

Interact with it. So I would say somebody should try it out, see what happens, be early to the game.

So these aren’t tickets, anything? Yeah. Are there any people out there on TikTok right now?

I, I vote Kaylee and Ragan. Try this out. They’re good. They’re good at talking.

Let’s see, there’s a video here we can tap and play that one, too. It happens. Yeah.

Let’s see it. Nailed it. Well, there’s not much that happens. That said, after playing the game. So it’s like they tease you with something and then it goes away. I don’t know. They’ll build upon it, I’m sure, and it’ll be a thing. So awesome. All right.

Will owners be taxed out of their homes? What? I don’t know. Could it happen? Property taxes are going up. The statements came out there in your mail. You received them, you looked at them and you like either had to put on glasses to, like, double check and see what’s going on. You know, Aaron Rodgers has a discount double check where he checks your insurance just to make sure that you have the best insurance possible.

So you have like the property tax double check where you’re like, whoa, I need to put something on here to make sure that’s wow, that’s the right number. I’m going to be paying that much. Interesting. So you’ll be getting a lot of calls and discussions about that.

And will people actually be taxed out of their home? Think about that one, right? With all these things that are going on and we have inflation going up and it’s like through the roof and how much is it going to go up next year? 20%, I say. Yep. 20% is my number that I think inflation is going to go up year over year. Over the next 12 months. I think we’ll be up 20% with everything considered, which is a lot.

And I think homes are going to go up by that same amount and then all of a sudden we’ll be totally scratching our heads and we’re like, wow, that’s really crazy. So are they people going to be taxed out of their homes? I’m not sure.

So how much money does the local government really need to run? I don’t think they really need any more than they currently have. So then they have to keep the actual amount that they tax you the same, plus inflation. Right. And they should all be good. And hopefully that’s exactly what does take place that your actual amount you pay to them over time doesn’t double.

If your property taxes go up in value or your property goes up in value and your property doubles over, you know, a short period of time, what in the heck would the government do it? Twice as much money, right?

So I think what they’re probably end up doing is changing the millage rate, giving a larger deduction, having maybe more investors pay for it as secondary property owners hopefully help out the people that actually live in their own home, you know, and raise the the minimum cap for for homestead exemption and raise that considerably because there’s no protections for investors as secondary homes.

So what that ends up meaning is that investment properties are going to be really, really taxed. There’s not like a cap. It can go up, there’s not like deductions for it. And then when that tax rate goes up, you’re going to see rental rates skyrocket and then we’ll have a problem there.

So we’ll figure that one out when we get there. But yeah, I see inflation going up dramatically and as well as tax inflation.

So when your property goes up in value in your taxed more, then that also is a component like the increased taxes, also a self- fulfilling prophecy that adds to the inflationary index. So now you’re paying more for and it just continues on. So I don’t know when like somebody hits the brake and this inflation stops, but I don’t know that it’s happening any time soon.

So my prognostication is 20% inflation for the next year, one year from today will be up another 20% from where we’re at. And that does cause a whole host of challenges. And I do hope that we come up with some property tax reform because like, it’s just not going to work.

People’s property taxes going up by so much. I did get a message the other day from Dr. Blake Bennett of Texas A&M. He’s been a guest with us here multiple times. And he’s a very smart man. And he did confirm for us. That people who own their property can file a homestead exemption as of the first of the year after they purchased the property. So then they file this homestead exemption, but then your property cannot go up in value by more than 10% once you filed your homestead exemption.

Okay. So what does that really mean? So what that means is if you purchased a property today. Okay. And then you file your

What is trustless? trust and then less like like no trust. Zero trust. Like we don’t trust anybody. And what is that as it relates to real estate? So the way that we’re currently doing things is we’re like kind of in Web 2.0 in the early nineties.

We’re in Web 1.0 where we had all these static web pages and then we went to like the centralization of things and we had these big tech companies that we. I decided to trust and they could like track us and do all these things. And it was all the stuff was centralized.

And we have like huge monolithic companies that are in charge of everything and we adopted to like trust them. Then we decided like now we shouldn’t trust anybody going forward. So if we talk about like the new version of the Internet, that’s kind of going all around and it’s going to take a while to adopt.

But it has this concept of being of not trusting a certain person and getting rid of the centralization of certain things. So how does this relate to you and why is it important to real estate? So the concept of not trusting this single entity is going to come down to something very, very similar to kind of like Zillow and real estate.

So Zillow came out and Zillow buys showing time, right? They’re showing service. They’ve also bought like a whole bunch of other companies. But what they did is they keep acquiring these companies that we trusted. And what we did it was really, really a funny thing is we’re like, all right, we trust you look fine. We trust you. And we’ll give you this and we’ll give you that.

We’ll give you data and we’ll share and we’ll do. And on its own, none of it seemed like a big deal. Right? Like we’ll allow you to schedule our showings, we’ll allow you to finance the buyers, will allow you to have this part of the transaction. We’ll let you do this. And then all of a sudden, what happened is the companies bought up all of them and then put them under one umbrella and then shared all the data behind the scenes.

Right. And then sold it back to us. And it felt really bad all along the way. It was like, Oh, that feels a little dirty. Like, Oh, I really don’t like that. It’s like, that doesn’t feel good. And then all of a sudden it all comes together, right? And then you look at the whole package and you’re like, Whoa, that is gross. What are we doing? And it just feels really bad.

So that’s where we’re kind of currently at is we gave all the stuff to like one person, now they have it and we’re like, Oh, that’s no good.

We need to do something different. We need to take back this power, this control, and we need to go like peer to peer, and we need to be the ones in charge of our own data. And like, do we get to sell our data now if you’re going to be using it, like does that have a value and there’s something there, but like, so we don’t want to trust anybody going forward kind of with all of this data. Okay.

And so now we run into this same thing like Zillow, and we’re all of our data is in these the big, huge data companies like CoreLogic. Maybe you’re starting to have too much power.

And CoreLogic goes out and they make all these different announcements and they make these moves over time and they integrate with this company, and then they do this, and then they have the property data, and then they have your personal data, they have transaction data and the title company integrates with it, and you can pull flood data and then all of a sudden you can get insurance information and like all the same stuff starts to come together and you look up and CoreLogic is essentially becoming Zillow, but from the other side, but they’re getting the information in even bigger volumes. In their trusted by larger organizations, then we are currently trusting Zillow.

So it’s like every one person is trusting Zillow, but CoreLogic they’re almost like ten times the enemy because they have larger trusted people that are sending them data. And then you see they’re like, well, we bought homes, we have L

Let’s talk about topic number one, gardening, survival basics. How much land do you need? To be able to survive on your own and plant your own food, but only eat vegetables. So I have an article here that links to it. We’re going to go ahead and reference this article, but we’re going to just kind of talk through this.

So if you have people that are hearing now that we have this impending food crisis and food prices are going to just spike and we have all this going on in other parts of the world, and then these like domino and supply effects and all of a sudden, like food is going to be a problem and you’re like, I’m going to take care of it on my own, and you are going to go ahead and plant a garden.

But like no beef because it’s going to need like a lot of land, but you’re only going to eat vegetables and like stuff like that that comes out of the earth. How much land do you need? All right. So here we go. So if you’re going to 100% survive on this, you’re going to have to have a super dense, great garden and you’re going to grow like just hello food and you’re really, really enjoy it.

So and you’re probably going to have to be really good at it and you’re going to have to not let any animals eat any of it. And it’s going to have to be like, you’re going to have to like store it. There’s a lot that’s going to have to go on, but you can do it. So in this perfect scenario, we scroll on down and there’s actually an amount of space that you need. So what is the necessary square footage estimated that you need to have 4000 square feet per person of like this super dense garden?

Oc. And so now we like. And then you have to be a gardening guru. And be really good at it. So 4000 square feet. So it’s like maybe the size of an average large house around here.

All right. And that’s per person, but not just the first floor, but the second floor. So just imagine that and then play it out. And imagine there’s four people. So you need 16,000 square feet. An acre is 4000, 42,000, five, 63, 60, something like that on a 42,000 square feet and change for 200 by 200.

So you’re going to need, I don’t know, an average family close to half an acre for just planning your food and having that work out. Now, I would love to see if somebody could actually do this on half an acre. I’m saying, no, you can’t live for a full year with your family on just half an acre. So if somebody wants to try it and tell me that I’m wrong and go ahead, that’d be great fun for you.

But I’m saying you can’t live off half an acre for a full family for a full year. I’m just like, nah, and only live off of that. But if somebody does it and proves me wrong, I’m willing to hear. But now we know. So there’s all different types of calculators. And you can look at this and you can have great gardens, you can have like bad gardens, and you can have them work all these different ways. But at the end of the day, you’re going to need some space.

So move your clients out a little bit further, give them a big garden, maybe get rid of the pool, apparently, because you don’t need that.

If you’re going to need to survive, you’re going to need a garden. There’s a real estate news for today. See you next time.

Real estate development in Collin County. And how do you go about doing it? We have a nice PowerPoint presentation from Collin County, from Tracey Field, Rumsfeld, Rumsfeld, whatever it is, assistant director of engineering covered this one and this is a course that was put together so you can get some information on it.

And I just figured we would go ahead. Maybe, you know, somebody that has land or you want to find somebody that has land and you’re thinking, huh, how can I help them? Divide it up, chop it up, sell it off and get your all of your clients to a property.

So this is covered from September of 2021, has all this information and it was shared over with us. So we’re going to go ahead and share it. So what is the subdivision of land? Right.

So Collin County is the division of a tract of land situated within Collin County and outside the corporate limits of any municipality into two or more lots, parcels or tracts for purposes of sale or development and or for the purpose of laying out roadways, alley squares, if you’re into squares, parks, public utility easements, public right of ways, private ingress, egress easements, drainage and stormwater improvements and or other parts or tracts.

Why am I reading this whole thing?

I don’t know. But the point is, if anybody is going to subdivide, it must be replanted. You can’t. There are exemptions and I think it’s if you have ten acres or more, you don’t have to. But if you have less than, then you have to.

So there are some exemptions. But pretty much you’re not going to fall into that. Right. Are you going to read this to us? No, I’m not going to. I’m not. Yeah, there’s a map.

But it is nice to understand, you know, who regulates that, like us and our McKinney property has we’re in an J and there are different regulations for that because we don’t fall under the city regulations, so we fall under the county. So it’s it’s interesting.

And then if you live outside the bay, then there’s other things. If you’re not even within that. Right, you’re in some other areas of land.

Then there are other regulations that go along with this. There’s stuff to do with flood zones and what’s going on there. Yeah. And so anyways this is kind of what it covers here. So if you’re a lot is less than one acre or larger than one acre, less than 150, then it kind of tells you like what type of roadways you need to have.

Yeah, these are things as realtors you may be thinking, oh, I’m just trying to find my buyers a home. These are things that add to your realtor tool belt that make you valuable. And these are things that you need to know.

Other things, you know, we’ve talked about like the closing, the deeds, the things that maybe you’re not 100% involved in, but you need to know so you can spot an issue or discrepancy or explain to your client if all of a sudden you get to closing and they’re like, What is this? And you don’t know it’s a problem, right?

There’s just different terms that you would pick up that you’re not sure of, is a term that you might not run across often, but it is nice to actually know what it is.

So I think taking time and reading through these things, you know, I just saw something on there. If you need a septic system, what do you have to do? You just put it in. No, there’s regulations for everything.

We’re just always trying to give you information from different places so that you have it and then you can do something with it.

And if you guys research and read something, share it with us, all of us. So we’re all informed, right? ETJ stands for Extraterritorial Jurisdiction.

Now something else that goes along with that, you know, when you’re in the county but not in the city. And I just figured this out the other day, it was kind of crazy is when we have an Amazon package shipped. And if it comes to our our place in Frisco, it’s taxed at the normal rate. So for example, if you sent something for if you purchase something for $100, we’d have the normal tax r