Doug begins the episode by recapping what contributed to the 2008 meltdown. He then talks about the driving factors of today's housing markets, including millennial behaviors, the job markets, and national debt.
Doug states that unless there's a serious weakening in growth (below 2% annually), we won't expect to see any more Fed rates cuts. The only caveat is if the 25% tariffs are implemented, which can have unexpected impacts (update: they just did).
Since we are seeing real steady GDP growth and increased productivity due to the tax cuts, Doug does not see any downturn for the near future. The 2020 re-election remains a wild card.
Doug closes this episode with his thoughts about trade and energy.
Doug Duncan's Bio:
Douglas G. Duncan is Fannie Mae's senior vice president and chief economist. He is responsible for providing all forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets for Fannie Mae. Duncan also oversees corporate strategy and is responsible for strategic research regarding external factors and their potential impact on the company and the housing industry. He serves as the Chair of the Fannie Mae Corporate House Price Forecast Working Group.
Named one of Bloomberg / Business Week’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae's source for information and analyses on the external business and economic environment, the implications of changes in economic environment to the company's strategy and execution, and forecasting for housing activity, demographics, overall economic activity, and mortgage market activity.
Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. His experience also includes service as a LEGIS Fellow and staff member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of Representatives, and work on the Financial Institutions Project at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Duncan received his Ph. D. in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M University and his B.S. and M.S. in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University.
