Good morning, and I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend! As we move deeper into May's traditionally busy selling season, this week's data reveals a market in notable transition.
Buyer Leverage Emerges as Market Dynamics Shift
Last week's brokerage data from RLAH @properties confirmed what many of us are sensing in the field: buyers are gaining negotiating power. The most telling indicator? Below-list sales surged from 22% to 33% in just one week, while above-list sales declined from 22% to 19%. This shift suggests we're moving away from the seller dominated conditions that characterized much of the past few years.
The change is palpable on the ground. Despite hosting two open houses in what should have been one of the year's busiest weeks, post-spring break but before school ends for the summer, attendance felt more like late June or mid-fall levels; slow but steady. This tempered showing traffic aligns with the broader data indicating buyers are becoming more selective and price-conscious.
While 33% of properties still received multiple offers, buyers are clearly approaching purchases with greater caution. The uptick in full inspection requests (45% from 42%) further reinforces this trend toward more deliberate decision-making.
Market Segmentation Intensifies as Cooling Spreads Across Montgomery County
The Montgomery County real estate market continues evolving toward pronounced segmentation, with this week's neighborhood data revealing broader cooling conditions affecting most areas. While pockets of strength persist, particularly in Germantown's condo market and Silver Spring's single-family segment, the overall trend shows buyers becoming increasingly selective amid expanding inventory and extended marketing times.
The divergence between exceptional properties and average listings has become more pronounced. Ultra-luxury homes in Chevy Chase now require over 8 months to sell while appropriately priced entry-level properties across the county move in under three weeks, creating vastly different seller experiences within the same community.
Montgomery County Market Breakdown by Community and Property Type
🏡 Bethesda, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $2,149,000 (⬇️ from $2,185,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $1,280,000 (⬇️ from $1,725,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $452 (⬆️ from $448)
* Average Days on Market: 80 (⬆️ from 74)
* Median Days on Market: 49 (⬆️ from 42)
* Price Decreased: 49% (⬆️ from 46%)
* Price Increased: 2% (↔️ from 2%)
* Relisted: 16% (⬆️ from 15%)
* Inventory: 133 (⬆️ from 131)
* Median Rent: $5,100 (⬆️ from $4,990)
* MAI: 40 (↔️ from 40) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Bethesda's single-family market continues cooling with nearly half of sellers (49%) reducing prices, the highest rate in the county. Marketing times extend with median DOM rising from 42 to 49 days, indicating buyer resistance. The drop in new listing prices ($1.28M vs $1.72M) may reflect either seller adjustment or a shift toward lower-priced inventory. The luxury segment faces challenges with ultra-premium homes ($3.5M) requiring 77 days to sell while entry-level properties ($1.27M) move in 14 days, showing a notable performance gap between market tiers.
🏢 Bethesda, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $434,949 (⬆️ from $420,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $349,900 (⬇️ from $487,450)
* Price Per Square Foot: $411 (⬆️ from $410)
* Average Days on Market: 61 (⬆️ from 58)
* Median Days on Market: 32 (⬇️ from 35)
* Price Decreased: 45% (⬆️ from 44%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 7% (↔️ from 7%)
* Inventory: 42 (⬇️ from 43)
* Median Rent: $3,020 (⬇️ from $3,024)
* MAI: 46 (⬇️ from 47) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: The condo market shows mixed signals with rising median list prices yet declining new listing prices, suggesting shifts in inventory composition. While maintaining seller-favorable conditions, the market softens with MAI declining from 47 to 46 and 45% of sellers reducing prices. Luxury condos ($1.57M) take 59 days to sell while mid-tier units ($355K) move in 21 days, reflecting buyer preference for value-oriented properties.
🏡 Chevy Chase, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $2,200,000 (⬇️ from $2,285,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $1,932,500 (⬆️ from $1,799,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $546 (⬇️ from $557)
* Average Days on Market: 101 (⬆️ from 88)
* Median Days on Market: 42 (⬆️ from 35)
* Price Decreased: 42% (↔️ from 42%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 24% (⬆️ from 22%)
* Inventory: 45 (⬇️ from 50)
* Median Rent: $5,248 (⬇️ from $5,875)
* MAI: 37 (⬆️ from 36) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Chevy Chase faces extended marketing times with average DOM reaching 101 days and median DOM rising to 42 days. The luxury market encounters challenges with ultra-premium homes ($3.59M) requiring 245 days to sell, over 8 months. Mid-tier properties ($2M) sell in 7 days while entry-level homes ($1.39M) take 49 days, indicating selective buyer activity in this high-end market.
🏢 Chevy Chase, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $482,500 (⬆️ from $479,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $735,000 (⬇️ from $755,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $420 (↔️ from $420)
* Average Days on Market: 73 (⬆️ from 63)
* Median Days on Market: 42 (⬆️ from 35)
* Price Decreased: 31% (⬆️ from 29%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 10% (↔️ from 10%)
* Inventory: 70 (⬇️ from 72)
* Median Rent: $2,643 (⬆️ from $2,603)
* MAI: 33 (↔️ from 33) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The condo market remains stable with MAI holding at 33 despite longer marketing times. Consistent performance across price segments emerges with most quartiles showing 49-day DOM, suggesting uniform buyer behavior regardless of price point. This standardization may reflect market efficiency or consistent buyer expectations across segments.
🏡 Gaithersburg, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $924,950 (↔️ from $924,925)
* Median Price of New Listings: $850,000 (⬆️ from $655,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $262 (⬇️ from $272)
* Average Days on Market: 56 (⬇️ from 60)
* Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
* Price Decreased: 40% (⬆️ from 36%)
* Price Increased: 3% (⬆️ from 2%)
* Relisted: 11% (⬆️ from 8%)
* Inventory: 93 (⬆️ from 92)
* Median Rent: $2,950 (⬆️ from $2,800)
* MAI: 45 (⬆️ from 44) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Gaithersburg shows gradual improvement with MAI rising from 44 to 45. The significant increase in new listing prices ($850K vs $655K) indicates renewed seller confidence, though price reductions increase to 40%. Performance remains balanced across segments with luxury homes ($1.69M) selling in 42 days while entry-level properties ($627K) require 24 days, a moderate gap compared to other neighborhoods.
🏢 Gaithersburg, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $450,000 (⬆️ from $445,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $478,900 (⬆️ from $404,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $279 (⬇️ from $284)
* Average Days on Market: 42 (⬇️ from 43)
* Median Days on Market: 21 (↔️ from 21)
* Price Decreased: 36% (↔️ from 36%)
* Price Increased: 3% (⬇️ from 4%)
* Relisted: 8% (⬆️ from 6%)
* Inventory: 75 (⬆️ from 70)
* Median Rent: $2,250 (⬇️ from $2,215)
* MAI: 54 (⬇️ from 55) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Despite MAI cooling from 55 to 54, this market maintains solid fundamentals. New listings testing higher prices ($478K vs $404K) reflect seller optimism. The luxury segment ($731K) performs well with 17-day DOM while mid-tier units ($390K) sell in 7 days, demonstrating steady demand across price points.
🏡 Germantown, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $949,900 (↔️ from $949,900)
* Median Price of New Listings: $845,000 (⬇️ from $1,292,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $251 (⬇️ from $252)
* Average Days on Market: 55 (⬆️ from 45)
* Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
* Price Decreased: 43% (⬆️ from 32%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 13% (⬆️ from 8%)
* Inventory: 23 (⬇️ from 25)
* Median Rent: $2,599 (⬆️ from $2,425)
* MAI: 61 (⬇️ from 62) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Germantown maintains strong conditions with MAI declining slightly from 62 to 61 despite moderating marketing times. The notable drop in new listing prices ($845K vs $1.29M) likely reflects different property types entering the market rather than seller adjustment. Price reduction activity increases to 43%, yet market strength continues with ultra-luxury properties ($2.32M) selling in 56 days while entry-level homes ($627K) move in 38 days.
🏢 Germantown, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $355,000 (⬆️ from $330,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $411,500 (⬇️ from $454,975)
* Price Per Square Foot: $267 (⬇️ from $268)
* Average Days on Market: 34 (⬆️ from 32)
* Median Days on Market: 14 (↔️ from 14)
* Price Decreased: 30% (⬆️ from 25%)
* Price Increased: 3% (↔️ from 3%)
* Relisted: 8% (⬆️ from 7%)
* Inventory: 61 (⬇️ from 67)
* Median Rent: $1,950 (↔️ from $1,949)
* MAI: 72 (⬆️ from 71) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Remains the county's strongest market segment with MAI improving from 71 to 72. Strong performance continues with luxury units ($549K) and mid-tier properties ($400K) both moving in 7 days while entry-level condos require 28 days. This velocity demonstrates consistent demand across price points in this micromarket.
🏡 Kensington, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $1,200,000 (⬆️ from $1,150,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $1,237,000 (⬇️ from $1,299,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $371 (⬇️ from $375)
* Average Days on Market: 53 (⬆️ from 45)
* Median Days on Market: 21 (⬆️ from 14)
* Price Decreased: 52% (⬆️ from 34%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 15% (⬆️ from 10%)
* Inventory: 27 (⬇️ from 29)
* Median Rent: $4,100 (⬆️ from $4,075)
* MAI: 52 (⬇️ from 56) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Kensington experiences cooling with MAI declining from 56 to 52 and longer marketing times. The increase in price reductions to 52%, the county's highest rate, indicates market adjustment. Performance varies by segment: mid-tier homes ($1.5M) sell in 7 days while luxury properties ($2.04M) require 42 days, suggesting selective buyer interest in this historically strong micromarket.
🏡 Poolesville, MD – Single-Family Homes (monthly comparison as Poolesville was not included in last week report)
* Median List Price: $1,079,000 (⬇️ from $1,174,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $775,000 (⬇️ from $1,772,500)
* Price Per Square Foot: $289 (⬇️ from $293)
* Average Days on Market: 113 (⬇️ from 114)
* Median Days on Market: 21 (⬆️ from 14)
* Price Decreased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Price Increased: 11% (⬇️ from 13%)
* Relisted: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Inventory: 9 (⬆️ from 8)
* Median Rent: $2,400 (⬆️ from $2,300)
* MAI: 43 (⬇️ from 44) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: This micro-market shows high volatility with MAI declining from 44 to 43 month-over-month and substantial swings in metrics. The large drop in new listing prices ($775K vs $1.77M) reflects the small inventory base where individual high-end listings can significantly impact averages. Ultra-luxury properties ($5.62M) remain on market for 182 days while appropriately priced entry-level homes ($775K) sell in 7 days.
🏡 Potomac, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $1,937,000 (⬇️ from $1,972,500)
* Median Price of New Listings: $1,760,000 (⬆️ from $1,569,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $362 (⬇️ from $365)
* Average Days on Market: 65 (⬇️ from 69)
* Median Days on Market: 21 (↔️ from 21)
* Price Decreased: 31% (⬆️ from 27%)
* Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
* Relisted: 4% (⬆️ from 3%)
* Inventory: 72 (⬇️ from 74)
* Median Rent: $5,263 (⬇️ from $6,000)
* MAI: 45 (⬆️ from 44) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Potomac shows modest improvement with MAI rising from 44 to 45 and average DOM declining. New listings entering higher ($1.76M vs $1.56M) suggests returning seller confidence. Market segmentation continues with ultra-luxury homes ($3.7M) requiring 52 days while entry-level properties ($1.11M) sell in 7 days, relatively efficient absorption for premium Potomac real estate.
🏡 Rockville, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $849,995 (⬇️ from $912,000)
* Median Price of New Listings: $655,000 (⬇️ from $792,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $350 (⬆️ from $342)
* Average Days on Market: 39 (⬆️ from 38)
* Median Days on Market: 14 (⬇️ from 25)
* Price Decreased: 45% (⬆️ from 43%)
* Price Increased: 1% (⬇️ from 3%)
* Relisted: 10% (⬇️ from 13%)
* Inventory: 80 (⬆️ from 76)
* Median Rent: $3,300 (⬇️ from $3,448)
* MAI: 58 (⬇️ from 61) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Rockville experiences cooling with MAI declining from 61 to 58, though still maintaining seller-favorable conditions. The substantial drop in both median list price and new listing prices signals market adjustment. Despite 45% of sellers reducing prices, velocity remains solid with median DOM dropping to 14 days. Entry-level homes ($577K) sell in 7 days while luxury properties ($1.59M) require 38 days, showing continued efficiency across price tiers.
🏢 Rockville, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $465,000 (⬆️ from $452,400)
* Median Price of New Listings: $484,950 (⬆️ from $452,450)
* Price Per Square Foot: $350 (⬆️ from $349)
* Average Days on Market: 58 (⬆️ from 57)
* Median Days on Market: 28 (⬇️ from 32)
* Price Decreased: 32% (⬆️ from 30%)
* Price Increased: 3% (⬇️ from 4%)
* Relisted: 9% (⬆️ from 7%)
* Inventory: 127 (⬇️ from 138)
* Median Rent: $2,500 (⬇️ from $2,578)
* MAI: 43 (⬆️ from 41) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The market shows improvement with MAI rising from 41 to 43 and inventory declining to 127 units. Rising prices across multiple metrics suggest stabilization, though marketing times remain elevated. Consistent performance across price tiers with all segments requiring 24-42 days to sell, uniform performance that may indicate systematic market pricing or standardized buyer expectations.
🏡 Silver Spring, MD – Single-Family Homes
* Median List Price: $695,000 (⬇️ from $699,900)
* Median Price of New Listings: $722,000 (⬇️ from $765,000)
* Price Per Square Foot: $327 (⬆️ from $326)
* Average Days on Market: 48 (⬆️ from 46)
* Median Days on Market: 14 (↔️ from 14)
* Price Decreased: 40% (⬆️ from 36%)
* Price Increased: 2% (⬇️ from 3%)
* Relisted: 3% (⬇️ from 5%)
* Inventory: 119 (⬇️ from 120)
* Median Rent: $3,200 (⬆️ from $3,175)
* MAI: 57 (↔️ from 57) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Silver Spring maintains strong velocity with median DOM holding at 14 days and MAI stable at 57. Although 40% of sellers are cutting prices, the market continues efficient absorption across segments. Luxury homes ($979K) sell in 14 days while entry-level properties ($587K) require 24 days, narrow performance gap indicating consistent demand in this affordable micromarket.
🏢 Silver Spring, MD – Condos/Townhomes
* Median List Price: $280,000 (⬆️ from $269,999)
* Median Price of New Listings: $354,900 (⬇️ from $389,900)
* Price Per Square Foot: $256 (⬆️ from $255)
* Average Days on Market: 62 (⬇️ from 66)
* Median Days on Market: 35 (↔️ from 35)
* Price Decreased: 42% (⬇️ from 43%)
* Price Increased: 1% (↔️ from 1%)
* Relisted: 8% (⬆️ from 6%)
* Inventory: 163 (⬇️ from 169)
* Median Rent: $1,975 (↔️ from $1,975)
* MAI: 42 (⬆️ from 41) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The condo market shows modest improvement with MAI rising from 41 to 42 and inventory declining. Despite new listings entering more conservatively ($354K vs $389K), median list price increases suggest selective demand. Entry-level condos ($175K) require 56 days to sell while mid-tier units perform consistently around 35 days, indicating price-sensitive buyer behavior in this value-conscious segment.
Key Takeaways
* Buyer Negotiating Power Strengthens: Below-list sales surged 11 percentage points from 22% to 33% in one week while above-list sales declined, suggesting a fundamental shift in market dynamics. With 45% of buyers now requesting full inspections, the market shows clear signs of increased buyer caution.
* Cooling Spreads Beyond Luxury Markets: Previously strong markets like Kensington (MAI down 4 points to 52) and Rockville (MAI down 3 points to 58) show notable cooling, while nearly half of all sellers in Bethesda (49%) and Kensington (52%) are cutting prices, indicating broad-based market adjustment.
* Performance Gap Reaches Extreme Levels: Ultra-luxury properties in Chevy Chase now require over 8 months to sell (245 days) while entry-level homes across multiple neighborhoods move in under two weeks, reflecting an increasingly polarized market.
* Seasonal Expectations Miss Reality: Despite peak selling season timing with post-spring break and school year ending, showing traffic feels more like late June or mid-fall levels, indicating underlying market softness that contradicts typical seasonal patterns.
* Pent-Up Demand Meets Economic Caution: While inventory growth provides buyers more choices, the market likely retains significant pent-up demand given historically low supply levels. However, these motivated buyers are increasingly cautious due to inflation pressures and broader economic concerns both locally and nationally, creating a more deliberate purchasing environment.
Ready to Take Action?
For Buyers: Gain early access to listings through Zenlist: https://zenlist.com/a/corey.feldman
For Sellers: Request a data-driven property valuation: https://bit.ly/dcmetrocma
Questions about how these trends affect your specific situation? Let's talk at 301-564-3058.
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