We look at property asking prices nationally with Dr Andrew Wilson. What are we learning from the asking prices?
Transcript:
Kevin: My guest is Dr. Andrew Wilson from the Domain Group.
Andrew, let’s talk about asking prices nationally. What are we learning from the asking prices?
Andrew: Interesting; we had some press last week with some sales price data that was released, which was a little perplexing at a number of levels because it showed that prices had actually fallen over May.
Kevin: Is the gap between the list and the sale price increasing?
Andrew: It can. According to the cycle, of course, or reflecting the cycle, it can move, but the relativities actually remain the same. There’s no doubt, of course, that asking prices are always higher than sale prices, because why would you ask something, unless you’re in a trough of a market?
Kevin: It’s an indicator if it’s the other way around. Then you know you’re in a booming market.
Andrew: That’s right, but asking prices… And of course, these are properties that are listed for private treaty, so they’re part of them, and for most capital city markets, that’s the vast majority. Even in Melbourne, which has 30% of its marketed properties under the hammer, you still have 70% that are listed for private treaty.
Kevin: There’s an interesting point I want to pick up on, because we so often look at the auction market and talk about clearance rates and how the market is going, but in one of the biggest auction markets in Australia, it only represents 30% of the market.
Andrew: Three out of ten sales, Kevin, and in Sydney it’s two and a half sales out of ten, and that’s up from 15% of the market. And in Brisbane, it’s only 7%.
Kevin: Why aren’t we tracking clearance rates on private treaty sales, and also days on market? Because you look at days on market at an auction, it’s going to be around about 30 days, give or take a few days, because that’s an auction campaign. Days on market for private treaty are sometimes up to 45 days, and 45 days is a fairly normal market.
Andrew: Yes, and the point with days on market is you have to have a sale. But with listings data, it’s here and now. Nothing changes, because this is properties that are for sale. And people don’t make mistakes, because we can get mistakes in some of the official sales data.
Kevin: It depends. Garbage in, garbage out.
Andrew: Yes, that’s right. But listings people make sure they’re not advertising the wrong price.
Kevin: Well, they’re publicly listed.
Andrew: Yes, that’s exactly right. And the point is it’s here and now, it’s not relying upon a sale, so it’s real-time data. I’m now focusing more and more now on asking price data as being a robust insight for the market. As you said, Kevin, it does reflect the vast majority of activity…
Kevin: More so than auctions, and we try to determine where the market is going by the auction numbers.
Andrew: We can’t. Not necessarily a pass in; I don’t think it’s the same.
Kevin: But it’s part of the sales cycle.
Andrew: That’s right. There’s not the same sort of impetus to sell under the hammer as there is down south. It can, in fact, be an entry point into the sale. So, those 50% clearance rates – which is typically what you do see in Brisbane – in Melbourne or Sydney, you’d be saying that’s definitely a buyer’s market. But no, not in Brisbane, because it’s just a very small snapshot, and not really a reflective snapshot of what’s happening in the wider market, because the wider market is basically 95% of the market.
Kevin: I used to think that it was a reflection on agents, that agents in Queensland were not as good at the auction market. But I don’t think it is. I think it is a culture and I think in the southern market, Sydney and Melbourne, people are used to buying at auctions. They’re a lot more aggressive about their offers, they try to secure before,