Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, welcomes back David Arscott of Baycrest Capital for another wide-ranging look at the forces shaping commercial real estate.
They open on a striking headline: second-quarter construction deliveries have fallen to their lowest level since 2011 — fifteen years ago — as rising costs, softening valuations, and oversupply in hot markets like Austin, Denver, and Miami finally catch up with development pipelines. Yet on the ground in the Bay Area, contractors still can't hire fast enough, a paradox David and Vlad trace to the one corner of construction that's booming: data centers.
From there the conversation turns to the surge of new capital flooding into data centers, where vacancy sits near zero and investment has overtaken office. But the boom is drawing pushback — Monterey Park has banned new data centers outright and Seattle has imposed a 12-month moratorium — pushing development toward friendlier markets and raising hard questions about energy. Vlad and David dig into the grid constraints, the politics of green versus fossil energy, and why nuclear (and micro-nuclear) may finally get its moment.
The pair then examine the emerging value play in beaten-down urban cores, using the takeback of 415 Natoma — San Francisco's newest office tower, recently trading around $300 a foot versus the $900-plus of the last cycle — as a case study in how a lower basis resets what a building can lease for. With Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell recently estimating the market is only about halfway through its distressed-asset cycle, they see more value-add and distress ahead over the next 12–18 months.
Finally, they weigh Goldman Sachs' 15% recession odds against a hawkish Fed, stubborn inflation, and the elephant in the room: AI valuations. Drawing parallels to the dot-com bust, they debate whether an AI correction would stay contained among private companies or ripple through pension funds and the broader economy — while agreeing the underlying technology, like the internet before it, isn't going anywhere.
In the closing "Microscope / Telescope" segment, they zoom in on how looming AI IPOs are already pushing luxury home prices higher (with all-cash Bay Area deals now topping $1,700 a foot), the wildcard of a first-ever recorded U.S. population decline, and a Phoenix industrial market that swung from 4% to 12% vacancy in two years — where a fresh $122 million JLL bridge loan signals renewed confidence and the growing mainstreaming of bridge lending.
Topics & timestamps
- (00:01) Intro — Welcome and catching up
- (01:10) Construction deliveries hit lowest level since 2011 — Rising costs, softening valuations, and the lag between planning and delivery
- (04:31) The labor paradox — Why Bay Area contractors still can't hire despite a national slowdown
- (06:42) New capital floods into data centers — Investment overtaking office; near-zero vacancy
- (08:26) The pushback — Monterey Park's ban, Seattle's moratorium, and where development migrates next
- (12:04) The energy question — Grid limits, renewables, and the case for nuclear
- (16:19) The urban-core value play — 415 Natoma, lower basis, and the distress cycle (with a nod to Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell)
- (23:07) Employment stays resilient — Low unemployment amid economic crosswinds
- (24:00) Recession odds & the AI valuation risk — Goldman's 15%, a hawkish Fed, and dot-com parallels
- (32:06) Microscope / Telescope: AI IPOs & housing — Luxury home prices, all-cash deals, and a shrinking population
- (38:07) Phoenix industrial boom-bust — 4% to 12% vacancy, a $122M bridge loan, and bridge lending going mainstream