This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent break out in crude oil prices and the ongoing squeeze in agricultural products. US inflation may have peaked in H1, but that doesn’t mean it will quickly drop back to ‘normal’ levels. Furthermore, if it continues to spread from durable goods to essentials such as food and energy, then the Fed may have an even harder job on its hands.

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#inflation #refinitiv #realvision

About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime, and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub - http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk, and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv's social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

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We are experiencing technical issues - please head over to our YouTube to watch the livestream. The recording will be up on the website soon after we go off air. The Institute for Supply Management reported that May factory activity exceeded consensus expectations, another sign of resilience for the U.S. economy. “Today’s ISM Manufacturing data represents a decent middle finger to us growth cycle bears - although the market doesn’t seem to care,” said Darius Dale. Still, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro believes the global downturn is not adequately priced into equity markets. Darius joins Andreas Steno Larsen to unpack the May ISM data, the economy, and recent price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3m7TtE1. Watch the full interview with Charlie Morris and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3PUGvHu.

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It looks like Bitcoin is recovering from its recent steep sell-off, but many investors fear this could be a short-lived bounce. That reflects a broader market still assessing the damage done by the epic failure of the so-called algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token Luna. As Terra’s founders try to revive the project, questions about lessons learned and security abound. Leslie Lamb, chief marketing officer at CoinFLEX, and Ari Redbord, head of legal and government affairs at TRM Labs, join Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Marco Olivera to talk about lingering fallout from the Terra meltdown, Tether’s controversial modus operandi, and the latest buzz about mergers and acquisitions in the crypto space. Want to submit questions for the group? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/discussion/11910.

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Though West Texas Intermediate backed off its intraday high of $119.98, a fresh surge for crude oil has analysts invoking the old “the cure for high prices is high prices” chestnut. Food and energy costs are already dragging down household sentiment, as US consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest since February. And oil’s surge may have only just begun. “Energy prices are set to blow minds this week,” tweeted Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator. “I love that there is still a bearish camp out there talking ‘demand destruction’ because it helps you stay in the trade.” Tony joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about energy and inflation. We also hear from Keith Weiner on the future of gold. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3zd27su. Watch the full conversation between Keith Weiner and Mike Green here: https://rvtv.io/3wY0tsa.

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High Energy Prices Are Giving Way to Higher Energy Prices

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Exponential Age Asset Management CIO Moritz Seibert returns with a new episode in his asset management series where he explores the techniques of top asset managers in the cryptoverse.

Seibert welcomes Nickel Digital Portfolio Manager David Fauchier to explain the market-neutral approach behind the Diversified Alpha Fund he oversees. Investors in old-school financial markets have long cherished market-neutral strategies, which match leveraged long and short bets to protect returns against adverse moves.

Fauchier notes that this product type is uncommon in crypto, where directional products dominate the market. He believes market-neutral strategies are a real value-add to investors in a volatile crypto market where it can take years for something to happen.

Fauchier walks Seibert through the specifics of the firm's trading style, highlighting strategies based on the concept of market neutrality.

Recorded on March 31, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS & CHAPTERS

00:00:43 Background and Crypto Journey

00:04:17 How Diversified Alpha At Nickel Operates

00:08:37 Finding and Recruiting Talented Crypto Traders

00:16:23 Favoring Market Neutral Trading Strategies

00:24:17 What Strategies Fall Under Market Neutral?

00:37:53 How DeFi and Insurance Impact Trading

00:46:57 Future Outlook

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With U.S. equity indexes languishing in January, it’s clear that investors are anxious about the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.

George Goncalves, head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, talks with Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap about whether and when the Fed might recognize a “pain threshold” for the stock market and walk back its hawkish tone.

At the same time, given President Joe Biden’s recent jawboning, it’s hard to see how the central bank can relent until it tames inflation. Goncalves and Dillian also discuss credit markets and messages from the yield curve. All told, the only certainty for investors in the coming months is uncertainty.

Recorded on February 1, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS / CHAPTERS:

00:00:48 Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Fed Tightening?

00:03:00 Walking the Tight Rope: The Fed’s Potential Mistakes in Addressing Inflation

00:08:03 What Are Your Thoughts on Current Financial Conditions?

00:09:54 Does the Fed Care About Equity Markets?

00:15:29 The Fed Funds Terminal Rate

00:19:42 The Inflation Outlook

00:21:50 A New Style of Bear Markets

00:24:47 Effects of Draining Market Liquidity

00:27:01 What is the Yield Curve Telling Us?

00:33:20 Finding Value in the Credit Markets

00:40:14 Synchronized Global Rate Tightening

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LSEG’s Group Head of Sustainability Jane Goodland speaks to Javier Echave, Heathrow’s Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the roadmap towards net zero and the critical role that the aviation industry has to play in climate action.

The conversation focuses on the industry’s broader sustainability issues and how it is tackling carbon reduction, as well as other key matters such as human and nature trafficking. Javier also explains Heathrow’s long-term ambition and where he sees opportunities to drive change as part of the company’s Heathrow 2.0 Sustainability Strategy.

The Net Zero Conversations series was filmed at the Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation in association with the COP 26 UK Presidency 2022 and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ).

View the full series: https://lseg.com/netzero

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At the centre of global financial markets, LSEG is a strategic enabler of sustainable economic growth, by accelerating the just transition to net zero, growing the green economy, and creating inclusive economic opportunity.

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In this latest episode of The Short of It, Freddy Brick is joined by Soren Aandahl of Blue Orca Capital. They address the awkward question of whether it's appropriate for short sellers to criticize other short reports. Soren questions the marking of hedge fund private investments and Freddy details how the next leg down in the markets may come from allocators having been overly weighted to private investments, forcing them to sell liquid ones. The conversation then turns to the challenges with investing in consumer products, while Soren outlines why ESG is one Blue Orca's primary areas of focus. Can Elon Musk negotiate his way into a lower deal price for Twitter? Freddy shares one interesting take on how the current drama could play out through the legal system.

Watch ‘The Short of It’ on Zer0es TV to stay up to date on all the short selling and market developments that matter most.

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This video content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is very important to do your own research, and seek professional investment advice, before making any investment decisions. This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Ever wanted to know When to sell and how to deal with changing markets? This clip is for you. Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder and CEO of Polychain Capital, joins Raoul Pal to walk us through his wild ride in crypto.

Also, how did Coinbase’s first employee get the job? Ever wanted to know what it was like founding a crypto asset management fund in the midst of a market downturn with no actual trading experience?

Olaf shares insight into not just crypto’s past but also its future, and, along the way, explains just how he formulates his own investment philosophy. This is one you won’t want to miss.

Recorded on March 11, 2022

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“The next several weeks are going to be rather brutal for markets,” says Raoul, “and bonds are likely to be your only friend as the market begins to price in an immediate, sharp recession, then a Fed pivot in the summer.” Real Vision’s co-founder and CEO joins Andreas Steno Larsen to expand on that forecast as chatter about “peak inflation” and a “soft landing” are rising, global equity fund inflows are surging, and stocks are closing out their first positive week in the last nine. Are we at a major turning point? Or is this simply a bounce within a bear market? Raoul shares his current thoughts about the economy, stocks, bonds, and crypto, emphasizing caution now with an eye on opportunities in the future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MQzC7Y. Watch Raoul’s special flash update here: https://rvtv.io/3LYrYHo.

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Are Markets and the Economy at Major Turning Points?

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