🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw. Andreas Steno Larsen, founder, and CEO of Steno Research, welcomes Warren Pies, founder and lead strategist at 3Fourteen Research, to examine where we're at regarding inflation, Fed policy, and broader macro implications. They also dig into the construction cycle, commodities markets, the U.S. Dollar, and risk assets.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Sponsor: Token2049 in Singapore.
(01:03) - Introduction with Andreas Steno and Warren Pies.
(01:37) - Discussion on the US economy and CPI report.
(02:12) - Warren's take on soft landing and economic growth.
(02:40) - Analysis of bifurcated economy and market.
(03:15) - High deficit spending and recession likelihood.
(04:15) - Prospects for a soft landing and future inflation.
(04:47) - Housing inflation and rate cuts.
(05:18) - Disinflationary tailwinds and shelter inflation.
(07:05) - Concerns about shelter inflation data.
(08:06) - Implications of new tenant renewed rent index on CPI.
(09:10) - Discrepancies in shelter inflation data.
(10:11) - Goldman Sachs' prediction on rate cuts.
(11:17) - Possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September.
(12:55) - Equity market reaction to CPI release.
(13:46) - Market rotation and expansion.
(14:18) - Broadening market rallies.
(15:31) - Credit creation's role in bull markets.
(17:11) - Sector rotation and Trump presidency impact.
(17:50) - Political influence on market and tax policies.
(18:49) - Spending and deficits impact on markets.
(19:52) - Potential impacts of extending tax cuts.
(20:28) - Construction cycle and employment trends.
(21:36) - Multi-family and single-family housing trends.
(22:07) - Housing employment model as economic indicator.
(23:12) - Emerging slack in residential construction labor.
(24:21) - Rate cuts' impact on real estate market.
(25:22) - Controlled return of housing supply.
(26:00) - Homebuilding stocks and inflation prints.
(27:01) - Real estate market affordability and millennial demand.
(27:41) - Divergence between gold and oil.
(28:13) - Commodity super cycle thesis.
(28:47) - Gold's role as a monetary commodity.
(29:51) - Oil market dynamics and OPEC's influence.
(30:56) - OPEC's actions and oil prices.
(31:30) - Saudi Arabia's investment cuts and OPEC strategies.
(32:35) - Long-term sustainability of OPEC's influence.
(33:03) - Potential outcomes of a price war.
(34:03) - Political influence on energy investments.
(35:06) - Trump presidency's impact on oil market.
(36:13) - Sanctions' impact on oil market and Russia's role.
(37:46) - Long-term effects of sanctions and geopolitical shifts.
(38:22) - US dollar trends and rate cuts.
(39:33) - Coordinated central bank policies and dollar impact.
(40:39) - Gold as a safe haven.
(41:09) - Global economic impact of US rate cuts.
(41:39) - Positive effects of a weaker dollar.
(42:13) - Early financial sector earnings reports.
(43:24) - Earnings estimates and market expectations.
(44:52) - Historical earnings growth in bull markets.
(45:26) - Summary of market views on cutting cycle.
(46:32) - Investment strategies and sector preferences.
(47:38) - Bonds as a hedge against equity risk.
(48:43) - Closing remarks and macro deep dive outlook.
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