There are myriad ways to quantify risk. But investors, at times, struggle to even accept risk.

This lesson is one of many Todd Edgar, the chief investment officer of the Atreaus Family Office, has distilled from his multi-decade career in finance.

In conversation with Christian Alexander of Macro Link, Todd details his journey from working the slopes as a snowboarding instructor right out of college to moving on up at Tudor Investment to eventually founding his own hedge fund.

Todd and Christian also talk about why the durability of inflation may be underemphasized, whether the proliferation of recession narratives is actually “hopeful,” and whom Edgar prefers, Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

#hedgefund #hedgefunds #riskmanagement

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Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors.

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About That Blockbuster Jobs Report…

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A “prolonged period” of zero or negative interest rates is going to “lead to distortions,” according to Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University famous for his theory that yield-curve inversions precede recessions, and that’s exactly what investors are dealing with right now.

The title of Professor Harvey’s new paper, with co-author Rob Arnott, cuts right to the point: “No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession.”

The Federal Reserve is playing catch-up, and it knows full well that aggressive rate-hiking will push the economy into recession. It’s a “blunt instrument.”

But Professor Harvey is not one to leave not-well enough alone: “Surely there are alternatives that could be considered.”

He shares his ideas on a different approach to central banking and his thoughts on managing risk in such an environment with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington.

You can click here to read Professor Harvey’s and Rob Arnott’s new paper on the coming recession. Recorded on July 15th, 2022.

#monetarypolicy #federalreserve #fed

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Jerome Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s steadfast commitment to raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet.

But investors are increasingly skeptical that the central bank can stay the course in the face of a slowing economy.

Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Scylla of inflation, the Charybdis of recession, and the possibility the Fed has no way out of this dilemma.

Krishnan notes that there are critical time-lag differentials between Fed actions to control inflation and Fed actions to stimulate growth.

And that makes a sharper economic downturn more likely, even with a pause in the Fed’s tightening program, as fed funds futures markets are currently signaling. Recorded on June 27, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:01:09 How Do You Think About the Current Environment?

00:08:48 Piecing Together the Puzzle of the Fed's View of Inflation

00:18:01 The Fed's Dilemma Between Growth and Inflation

00:29:04 Applying This Framework to Hedging Risk

00:35:35 What Are the Limitations of This Theory?

00:41:37 Conclusion

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#jeromepowell #federalreserve #fed

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The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing.

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The Bank of England Goes Big and Gets Scary

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This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data-dependent Fed to curtail its rate hikes. In the Chatter, in light of the darkening macroeconomic outlook perhaps the worst is yet to come, and Q3 could provide a better representation of the trends in consumer spending.

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Chen Zhao makes a compelling case for his long-term bullish bias. The chief global strategist for Alpine Macro – whom Marko Papic lovingly calls his “Macro Dad” – thinks inflation will be substantially lower by the end of the year, and he expects the Federal Reserve to pivot back to accommodation in early 2023.

Chen and Marko talk about what changed to make Chen turn bullish on the U.S. economy. They also talk about why his take on China is different.

Chen, who was born in China, explains why he thinks Xi Jinping’s policies make no sense for the Mainland economy, and he shares supporting anecdotes from friends and family still living there.

As Chen points out, this is stuff you won’t find in the Financial Times. Recorded on July 15, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS

00:01:23 Chen Zhao's Macro Background

00:06:12 The Chinese Bullish Bias

00:09:08 A Bullish Macro View

00:17:20 Are you an Inflationist or Deflationist?

00:23:25 A Bearish Outlook on China

00:33:58 China's Natural Rate of Growth & Credit Growth

00:43:28 Is Challenging the West on the Table?

#chinaeconomy #china #chinanews

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Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets.

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"No More Candy for You"

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What does a chemical factory shutdown in Germany mean for the world economy?

What’s the likely outcome of President Biden’s upcoming visit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia?

In an interview with Tony Greer of TG Macro, Doomberg does a deep dive into the delicate underpinnings of the global energy market.

A handful of facilities are crucial to the efficient function of global manufacturing, explains Doomberg, and a series of shutdowns could have dire implications for investors.

Although commodity prices have retreated, the failure to address long-term infrastructure issues will continue to constrict production and put upward pressure on prices, adds Greer. Recorded on June 27, 2022.

#commoditymarket #commodities #commodityprice

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:35 BASF Chemical Plant Shutdown

00:06:46 Impact of The Freeport Oil Plant Explosion

00:09:06 Responding to Market Volatility

00:16:48 Potential US Reaction to Oil Prices

00:22:25 The Australian Energy Situation

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U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over.

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Pelosi Goes To Taiwan

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