Reflections on Investing

The P/E for automobile manufacturers is normally very low. Ford, GM and Toyota currently trade at 7 times earnings. Tesla’s P/E of 114 is unique in the auto industry. Elon Musk’s promises of future growth from humanoid robots and robotaxis have sustained Tesla’s high price but investors should be cautious as stock prices built on future growth expectations can drop just as quickly as they rise.

The perception of risk has a major impact on the level of market prices and helps to explain the increase in prices over the last 15 years.

As Herb Stein “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop”. The current growth of government debt is unsustainable. How will it stop? And what does that mean for investors?

A majority of stocks destroy wealth. In fact, most all of the wealth creation from stocks is attributable to only a handful companies.

The combination of P/E multiples and earnings determines stock prices – its basic math. In our last episode of Reflections on Investing we looked at earnings, now we add in the role of the multiple.

The ultimate source of value for common stocks is the earnings of corporations. In the last four and a half years the S&P 500 has risen 124%. How is that increase related to earnings and what does it imply for the future of the market?

A common refrain is that to get more return you have to bear more risk. But what exactly is risk? We revisit this important issue.

Professor and Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama put forth the efficient market hypothesis and based on that concept Warren Buffet suggested that holding a passive investment in the S&P 500 was the best advice for most investors. If the market were efficient and if passive investing was best for everyone, how can that be reconciled with the performance of Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies Medallion fund.

When attempting to explain movements in stock prices the media often overlook the key facts that for every buyer there is a seller and every outstanding share must be held continuously.

The decade ending in 2023 was a great one for common stocks. Is the next decade likely to be as good? We provide an analysis using Damodaran's equity risk premium (ERP) and a framework developed by Jordan Brooks of AQR.