Resolution Foundation Event Recordings

Although the eventual impact of the escalating war in the Middle East is unknowable, we do know that it is already adding to cost of living pressures, that inflation and the path of interest rates will be higher, and that growth rates for GDP and disposable incomes will be lower (and may turn negative). The Resolution Foundation is hosting a pair of events in April to unpack what the effects of the war are on the UK economy, and how policy makers should respond.

This second event will focus on the wider outlook for the economic and public finances.

How much might the war reduce the UK’s growth prospects? What fresh policy support might be needed in the face of a potentially acute and prolonged price shock? How will this affect interest rates and mortgages? And what might an outlook for lower growth, higher inflation, higher debt servicing costs and fresh policy support mean for the public finances, and the Chancellor’s fiscal rules?

Following a presentation of wider domestic economic implications of the war in the Middle East, the Foundation will be joined by leading experts in their fields to discuss what might unfold, and how the Government and Bank of England should respond.

The event will be open for people to physically attend, alongside being broadcast via YouTube and the Resolution Foundation website. Viewers will be able to submit questions to the panel before and during the event via Slido.

Although the eventual impact of the escalating war in the Middle East is unknowable, the increase in the price of oil and gas means we already know energy and petrol costs are set to rise.   Knock on effects will hit food prices and wider inflation, not to mention the second-round effects on wage negotiations, interest rates, debt-servicing costs and wider economic growth. The Resolution Foundation is hosting a pair of events in April to unpack what the effects of the war are on the UK economy, and how policy makers should respond.

Part I will focus on the coming cost of living crunch.

What is the outlook for petrol prices, energy bills, the cost of a supermarket shop and wider inflation? How might this affect the outlook for family living standards? Can the Government respond to this coming cost of living crunch effectively? And how can it balance the need to provide clear, effective and targeted support with a price tag that the UK economy can afford?

The Foundation will be joined by leading experts in their fields to discuss the impact on households, and how the Government should respond.

Part II will focus on what the economic fallout of the war could mean for growth and the state of the public finances, and how this could shape future interest rate decisions and the next Budget. This event will take place on Wednesday 22nd April. 

All developed countries are grappling with a falling birth rate, and the UK is no different. While the UK’s birth rate has often fluctuated, it has fallen sharply since 2012, and a rebound anytime soon looks unlikely. There are cultural and economic drivers behind the recent shortfall; and the implications will be both immediate and pose challenges well into the future.

Is the UK’s declining birth rate worth worrying about in the first place? What explains the recent trend of falling birth rates? Should policymakers be acting on this, and if so, what could be done?

The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate and discuss these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from its latest research on the significant implications of Britain’s plunging birth rate, we will hear from leading experts on why it matters, how, and if, policymakers should respond, and what we can learn from across the globe.

The dream of owning your own home is a powerful life goal for many. Once realised, it comes with better living standards, as well economic security. But many families are failing to get over the barriers to accessing a mortgage – from finding a deposit to passing banks’ affordability tests. Indeed, many would say such regulation has gone too far and it is time for a loosening.

To what extent has falling home ownership among young and lower-income families been driven by regulation, wider market conditions or government policy? How many people are on the margins of home ownership, and what is stopping them from making that next step? Should policy makers intervene to support home ownership, and what are the risks of intervention in terms of elevated house prices, mortgage debt and loans on the Government’s balance sheet?

In his new book Why Populists Are Winning and How to Beat Them, British Labour Party Politician and the MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne draws on original research from across Europe and America to explore why populism has seduced voters worldwide. Liam sets out populism’s ‘five tribes’ – and which of these voters can still be won back by the centre. Drawing connections between rising inequality and the growing appeal of populism, Liam sets out a game-plan to tackle the populist surge.

The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate key questions – and answers – raised by Liam’s book. He will be joined by Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice, alongside David Guake and Gaby Hinsliff, to unpack this timely call to action.

Britain has long seen lower intergenerational social mobility than many of its peers, with those from lower-income backgrounds receiving lower earnings as adults than those from more affluent backgrounds. University is often seen as the ticket out of this social mobility trap, but is this true? Unpacking the factors driving persistent earnings gaps for young people based on their background is vital if we’re to lift living standards for those from lower-income backgrounds.

How significant is the earnings gap between graduates from different backgrounds and how does this change over time? To what extent can this be accounted for by educational choices and where people work – and how much cannot?

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The Treasury promised us a boring non-event, which on the day was massively over-shadowed by events in the Middle East anyway. Ruth Curtice discusses the merits of annual fiscal events, the difficulty of getting growth going, and what to expect in the Chancellor's upcoming (and unprecedented) *second* Mais Lecture, with James Smith (Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation) and Giles Wilkes (Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government). 

Read Understatement of the year on our website today, for the full detail of our Spring Forecast response.

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The Government came into office promising to tackle policy uncertainty by limiting major fiscal events to one a year. They failed to deliver this last year, but are determined to deliver a ‘policy free’ Spring Forecast next week. Have they achieved greater policy certainty, or been scuppered by the cost of policy U-turns, public service pressures, major changes in the UK economic outlook, or problems that need fixing before the Autumn Budget?

Catch up on a recording of our recent event discussing the outlook ahead of the Chancellor's Spring Forecast.

The Autumn Budget was barely three months ago, but the UK has experienced plenty of economic and political drama since then. In the short time between OBR forecasts, there have been encouraging signs on the public finances and the outlook for inflation. But growth remains sluggish and uncertainty elevated amid rising geopolitical tensions. There are some signs of productivity ‘green shoots’, but the risk is they are indicative of higher unemployment.