ResourceCast

Post-Covid-19 management of the natural capital will require a new framework hinged on explanatory power, empirical evidence, rationality, and simplicity.

Several models of the COVID-19 pandemic come up with diverse outcomes. Assumptions based on assumptions and simple numerical analyses of the models may reflect reality. Levy walk, a kind of random walk, may explain why a few super-spreaders are essential in understanding the transmissivity of the coronavirus.    

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Epidemics are always not amenable to modelling as our current experience amply demonstrates. A simple law of averages doesn't work here. The virus doesn't mix in a population uniformly. Out best-laid plans are frustrated by a few individuals and fervent religious groups.

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With COVID-19 entering its sixth month of existence, are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? As humans, we are often blind to the obvious and also blind to our blindness. That could be the reason to see the coronavirus as a living organism, which may have cost us valuable time in putting up a practical challenge. A virus cannot seek out a victim to infect, the victim as to get in its way. A mask could have prevented that on most occasions.

As the COVID-19 rampage continues, social distancing and lockdowns have become the norm. Apart from not being permanent solutions, these knee jerk actions could also crash the economy. Are there proven methods which could tame the pandemic without sending the economy into a death spiral?

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Oil and gas price plummets as the COVID-19 pandemic takes its toll. With OPEC+ split and depressed demand, it will not be a good going for the industry.  However, the petroleum industry refuses to engage with the war against the pandemic. 

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The novel coronavirus has impacted the natural resource industry, like any other industry, but also is having a high human cost. Should the natural resource industry be a mute spectator, or does it have a more active role to play? Pandemics of this sort usually originate from places where natural resources are produced and transformed. So it is also the industry’s responsibility to join hand with partners to see whether a vaccine could be developed and provided to the people rapidly.

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Can Artificial Intelligence (AI) help oil&gas gas and mining companies discover more oil&gas accumulations and mineral deposits? The AI we have today is the weak AI, which can make specific tasks more efficient. One area is in the interpretation of the vast amount of geophysical data, which is typically a slow and tedious process, brought with many errors. But helping out in exploration in a substantial manner will require the development of Artificial General Intelligence (ANI), or even better Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), which are not yet there.

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The oil&gas industry is investing significantly to improve exploration and production. Big tech companies have made their cloud and AI platforms available for these improvements. However, the tech employees are not keen to join the game, and a revolt is underway. Big oil and big tech are trying a assuage the feelings with a slew of new initiatives to support climate action. However, some oil&gas industry employees remain sceptical of climate change and are having revolts of their own to prevent professional associations from going out all out for climate action.    

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Megatrends such as urbanisation, climate change, ageing population, the rise of service-based industry and disruptive technologies may seem to have a little to do with natural resource use. But imagining where natural resource is headed to in 2030 or 2050 requires careful considerations to these and other megatrends. Otherwise, industries such as mining and oil&gas will see ground failing under their feet. 

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