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Iran. Prison. Protest. Power. This is not theory. This is lived experience.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, recorded from the Institute of World Politics (IWP) media studio in Washington, DC, hosts Ryan Fugit (former Army & CIA officer) and Glenn Corn (34-year CIA veteran, multiple-time Chief of Station) sit down with Emad Shargi, an Iranian-American businessman who spent years imprisoned by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Emad Shargi was detained by the IRGC in 2018, held in Evin Prison, and reduced to a number—97010. His story is a powerful case study in Iran's hostage diplomacy, repression, and the reality inside the regime's prisons. Today, Emad is a leading voice on Iran's internal collapse, protest movements, and what may come next.

🎙️ In this conversation, we cover:

• What it's like to disappear into Iran's prison system

• Why today's protests are different from 2009, 2017, and 2019

• How the IRGC and Basij actually operate on the ground

• Whether the regime could collapse—and how fast that can happen

• What comes after the Islamic Republic

• Why comparisons to Iraq are wrong

• The roles of Russia, China, Turkey, and Israel if Iran destabilizes

• How the U.S. can support the Iranian people without backfiring

Glenn Corn, now a professor at IWP, adds deep regional and intelligence context drawn from decades in the field, including how authoritarian regimes fall—and why echo chambers are so dangerous.

🧠 NOTE: For those interested in connecting with Emad Shargi or learning more about his work and advocacy, please reach out directly through Restricted Handling at 👉 https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

This episode is raw, unfiltered, and essential for anyone trying to understand Iran, regime collapse, and what real freedom movements look like up close.

⏱️ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 – Intro & Recording from IWP

• 01:30 – "97010": Inside Iran's Prison System

• 05:00 – Why Today's Protests Are Different

• 08:45 – IRGC, Basij, and Regime Repression

• 13:30 – Could the Regime Collapse—and How Fast?

• 18:45 – Russia, China, and the Exit Options

• 23:30 – What Comes After the Islamic Republic

• 28:30 – How the U.S. Can (and Can't) Help

• 32:30 – Final Thoughts: Hope, Risk, and Reality

🔗 LINKS & REFERENCES

Glenn Corn

• Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

• Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Restricted Handling

• Subscribe & Contact https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

Russia is dialing things up—and this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast breaks down exactly how and why it matters.

In RH 1.12.26 | Russia, we walk through one of the most revealing 24-hour stretches of the war so far, where Moscow blends old-school coercion with new-school technology, while Ukraine and its partners respond with increasingly global reach. If you're tracking the Russia–Ukraine war, great power competition, drones, missiles, energy warfare, or European security, this episode is squarely in your lane.

We start with Russia's debut of the Geran-5 jet-powered strike drone, a system derived from Iranian interceptor technology that signals a shift toward counter-air and air-defense suppression roles. This isn't just another Shahed-style terror weapon—it's part of a broader evolution in how Russia is trying to fight above and beyond the front lines, even as it struggles under sanctions and battlefield losses.

From there, we move into Russia's winter air campaign, which has surged to staggering levels. Hundreds of drones, glide bombs, cruise missiles, and ballistic systems have been launched in a single week, hammering Ukraine's energy grid during freezing temperatures. Kyiv's power and heating systems are under extreme stress, and the intent behind the timing is impossible to miss. This is infrastructure warfare with a calendar circled in red.

On the flip side, Ukraine is expanding the geography of the war. We dig into Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, repeated hits on Lukoil platforms, and attacks deep inside Russia itself. The Caspian, once assumed to be a safe rear area, is now firmly on the target list—and that has major implications for Russia's war financing and internal security assumptions.

A major moment in this episode is Britain's launch of Project Nightfall, a fast-tracked effort to deliver new ballistic missiles to Ukraine within 12 months. This is Europe moving from talk to hardware, and it reshapes how deep-strike capability might look going forward—especially as Ukraine seeks to diversify beyond U.S.-supplied systems.

We also cover the grinding reality on the front lines, where Russia continues incremental advances without a breakthrough, leaning heavily on drones and infiltration tactics. At the same time, confirmed losses among Russian generals and elite units continue to mount, eroding experience that can't be quickly replaced.

Finally, we look inside Russia itself—arrests for corruption, foiled sabotage plots, growing admissions that the Russian Navy can't protect oil tankers, and new reporting suggesting serious health issues for Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. None of this screams confidence or control.

The tone is sharp, fast-moving, and informed—serious subject matter, but delivered with energy and clarity. If you want a smart, accessible breakdown of where Russia is pushing, where it's bleeding, and how the war is expanding technologically and geographically, this episode delivers.

Plug in, catch up, and stay ahead.

China kicks off 2026 with confidence, capability, and a couple of very public stress tests—and this episode breaks it all down with energy, context, and just the right amount of bite.

In this installment of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we dig into how Beijing is projecting power across space, technology, information warfare, and global security—while simultaneously getting checked in the Western Hemisphere. From exploding reusable rockets (progress, actually) to AI-fueled influence campaigns targeting Taiwan, this episode captures a 24-hour snapshot of a China that feels emboldened, impatient, and increasingly comfortable operating at scale.

We start with President Xi Jinping's New Year's address, which set the tone for 2026: shorter, sharper, more militarized, and far less interested in public reassurance. This wasn't a speech about shared sacrifice—it was a signal that the plan is written and execution is expected. From there, we move straight into China's rapidly evolving space ambitions, including the push toward reusable rockets and massive low-Earth orbit satellite constellations designed for "civilian" connectivity that just happen to double as military-grade infrastructure. Think redundancy, resilience, and rapid replacement when things start getting contested above the atmosphere.

AI is the connective tissue through all of this, and we unpack how Chinese researchers and firms are closing the gap with the U.S. despite chip restrictions—using algorithm-hardware co-design, brute-force infrastructure, and civil-military fusion to keep momentum. This isn't theoretical. Universities and private companies are already building systems for the PLA, and the pipeline is only getting wider.

Then there's Taiwan. This episode dives into new reporting showing the sheer scale of China's cognitive warfare operations—tens of thousands of fake accounts, millions of disinformation posts, AI-generated content, and precision targeting designed not to persuade, but to exhaust. Taiwan isn't just the target; it's the test environment for tactics Beijing intends to scale globally.

We also cover the moment that rattled Beijing: the U.S. special operations raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. It was fast, quiet, and devastating to China's long-term strategy in Latin America. Chinese-backed air defenses failed. Oil flows shifted. And the message was unmistakable—China cannot protect its partners in the U.S. backyard.

Add in rare earth leverage, tense trade diplomacy, a China-led naval exercise with Russia and Iran near critical shipping lanes, cybercrime crackdowns, and even a low-key espionage case involving a U.S. stealth bomber base—and you've got a packed episode that shows how all these threads connect.

If you want a clear, engaging, no-nonsense breakdown of China's posture right now—where it's strong, where it's vulnerable, and how it's playing the board—this episode is for you. Strategic, tactical, and just irreverent enough to keep things real.

Welcome back to The Restricted Handling Podcast for another deep-dive orientation episode: "What's Coming Up Next Week in the World." This is your no-nonsense, high-energy guide to the geopolitical events, power plays, and pressure points shaping the international security environment in the days ahead.

In this episode, we break down the most important scheduled developments for the coming week across the world's most volatile regions: Russia, China, Ukraine, the Middle East, and North Korea, plus the U.S., EU, and NATO moves that directly affect them. If you want to understand what matters before it explodes across headlines and social media, this is the episode you don't skip.

We start with China's carefully choreographed diplomacy in Africa, a long-standing tradition that Beijing uses to signal global influence, expand political leverage, and remind the world that it plays a long game. While Western governments debate priorities, China is already on the ground — cutting deals, shaking hands, and quietly stacking advantages.

From there, we head to Europe and the Balkans, where the European Union moves to stabilize Kosovo and reduce regional friction. This isn't just about local politics — it's about denying Russia space to exploit instability in a region where Moscow has historically loved to stir the pot. Cold War instincts die hard.

The episode then turns to Washington, where economic data, sanctions policy, and congressional action all intersect with global security. We explain why U.S. inflation numbers matter far beyond Wall Street — from sustaining military aid to Ukraine to shaping global energy markets that Russia still relies on. And yes, we dig into new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia and its oil customers, a move that could ripple through China, India, and beyond.

Ukraine remains a central focus, with continued Western defense coordination and mounting talk of long-term security guarantees. We unpack why Moscow reacts so aggressively to these discussions — and how Russian rhetoric fits a decades-old playbook that predates the current Kremlin leadership.

We also look at China, Russia, and Iran conducting joint naval exercises, what these displays of coordination actually mean, and why flashy photos don't always equal real military cohesion.

Finally, we hit the watchlist: North Korea's next likely moves, rising humanitarian pressure in Gaza, and the growing risk of miscalculation as multiple crises overlap.

If you're interested in geopolitics, international security, military strategy, NATO, U.S. foreign policy, Russia-Ukraine analysis, China's global ambitions, Middle East dynamics, or North Korea's weapons program, this episode is built for you.

Hit play, stay informed, and welcome back to The Restricted Handling Podcast.

A weekly deep dive into the latest spy stories and intelligence updates from across the globe. We spotlight the hidden dynamics driving security crises, geopolitical maneuvering, and covert operations—all with a sharp, unvarnished perspective. From cyber threats to clandestine influence campaigns, this episode pulls together the week's most critical developments, cutting through the noise and spin. Join us as we uncover the storylines shaping tomorrow's conflicts, power plays, and intelligence battles.

China is having one of those weeks where everything is connected—and none of it is accidental. In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we break down how Beijing is responding to pressure across multiple fronts, from artificial intelligence and Taiwan to Venezuela, cyber operations, and information warfare. If you're trying to understand how China thinks when it feels boxed in, this episode is a masterclass.

We start with China's sudden hard turn on artificial intelligence. Beijing has formally launched a review into Meta's acquisition of the AI startup Manus, and this isn't a routine regulatory check. It's a warning shot. China is drawing firmer red lines around AI talent, algorithms, and ownership, signaling that overseas exits by Chinese-founded tech companies are no longer frictionless. For founders, investors, and U.S. tech firms alike, the rules of the game are changing in real time.

From there, we move straight to Taiwan, where the PLA's "Justice Mission 2025" drills continue to echo. This episode adds nuance to what we discussed previously, with new details on how China rehearsed blockade mechanics and layered pressure rather than a single show of force. We also dig into the growing gap between online rhetoric—calls for a Venezuela-style decapitation strike—and the real operational constraints China still faces. The contrast between confidence and capability is where the story gets interesting.

The Venezuela fallout is still rippling too. China is no longer reacting emotionally; it's adjusting. We explain how Beijing is mitigating the loss of discounted Venezuelan oil, leaning on alternative suppliers, and quietly absorbing a reminder that U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere still comes with sharp edges. The message Washington sent landed—and China noticed.

Cyber operations tie everything together. We update listeners on the hacking of U.S. congressional email systems, shifting the focus from "what happened" to "why these targets." We also explore newly revealed China-linked cyber campaigns against telecommunications and critical infrastructure abroad, highlighting how patient, methodical cyber activity fits into Beijing's long-term planning.

The episode also covers a real-world espionage case in Taiwan involving a former Marine leaking sensitive military information, China's high-profile extradition of an alleged cyber-scam kingpin from Cambodia, and the ongoing anti-corruption campaign tightening discipline at home. Add in China's latest information warfare—from state media narratives about U.S. economic fragility to an AI-generated propaganda music video—and you get a clear picture of a country applying pressure everywhere at once.

This is a fast-moving, high-context breakdown designed for listeners who want more than headlines. If you care about China, Taiwan, AI, cyber conflict, great power competition, and how all of it fits together, this episode is for you.

In RH 1.9.26 | Russia Fires Oreshnik, Shrugs at Tankers, Freezes Ukraine, we walk through one of the most consequential news cycles of the year so far, where Moscow absorbed pressure in one domain and then responded with strategic force in another. If you're trying to understand where the Ukraine war, U.S.–Russia relations, and European security are actually headed—not where the talking points say they are—this episode is built for you.

We start with Russia's decision to launch a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile into western Ukraine, striking near Lviv and close to NATO borders. This wasn't about battlefield utility. It was a signal—loud, intentional, and timed right as peace talks and security guarantee negotiations are underway. We unpack what makes this missile different, why its launch from a strategic test range matters, and how this move fits into Russia's long tradition of escalation theater stretching back to the Cold War.

From there, we revisit a story we covered yesterday—but with a crucial update. After the United States seized Russian-linked shadow fleet oil tankers tied to Venezuelan sanctions evasion, Moscow talked tough… and then did nothing. No naval escalation. No counter-seizures. Just formal protests and silence. That restraint tells us something important about Russia's priorities and its unwillingness to risk a direct maritime confrontation with Washington while Ukraine negotiations remain in play.

The episode also digs into the widening gap between European security rhetoric and reality. The UK and France are talking openly about post-war troop deployments and deterrence forces, while Russia has now explicitly declared any foreign troops in Ukraine to be legitimate military targets. At the same time, Ukraine is growing increasingly frustrated with flexible language and non-binding guarantees from its partners. We explain why security guarantees—not territory—have become the real fault line in negotiations.

On the ground, winter warfare has taken center stage. Russian missile and drone strikes knocked out power, heat, and water for more than one million civilians across Ukraine's industrial southeast. Hospitals switched to generators, factories shut down, and air raid sirens went dark in some areas due to power loss. This episode explains why these strikes are more than infrastructure attacks—they're a coercive strategy aimed at civilian endurance during the harshest months of the war.

We also cover how Ukraine is responding, not symbolically but systematically. Deep strikes inside Russia, sabotage operations in border regions, and growing pressure on logistics and fuel infrastructure point to a sustained campaign rather than isolated retaliation.

Finally, we zoom out to the strategic backdrop: the impending expiration of the New START nuclear arms control treaty, the absence of inspections, and the growing risk of miscalculation in a world where strategic weapons are being demonstrated in real time.

Serious analysis, fast-moving updates, and just enough edge to keep it honest—this episode connects the dots across missiles, tankers, diplomacy, and winter warfare to show where the real leverage is shifting.

If you want to stay ahead of the noise and understand what actually changed in the last 24 hours, this one's essential listening.

In RH 1.8.26 | China, we break down a packed 24-hour period where Beijing is recalibrating fast after the U.S. move in Venezuela, while simultaneously turning up pressure across Asia, cyberspace, energy markets, and global diplomacy. This is one of those moments where nothing is technically "new," but everything feels sharper—and that's usually when things matter most.

We start with Japan, where China is leaning hard into economic ambiguity. The dual-use export ban is still officially vague, but the subtext is getting louder, with rare earths once again looming as a potential weapon. Tokyo knows this movie, markets know this movie, and Beijing is clearly enjoying the suspense. Pair that with increased PLA naval activity and you've got a coordinated reminder that economic pressure doesn't travel alone.

From there, we shift to Taiwan, where the story has evolved from military drills to something much more layered. Yes, ships and aircraft were involved—but the real update is digital. Millions of cyber intrusions, coordinated disinformation, AI-generated narratives, and perfectly timed pressure during PLA exercises. This episode unpacks how Beijing is practicing disruption without invasion, and why that matters far beyond the Taiwan Strait.

We also dig into the U.S.–China cyber front, where congressional staffers became the latest targets in a long-running espionage campaign. No Hollywood hacks here—just quiet access, strategic targeting, and the kind of collection that tells you exactly what Beijing cares about inside Washington.

Energy geopolitics makes a major appearance as well. The fallout from Venezuela continues to ripple, and China is now firmly in mitigation mode—pivoting crude supplies, leaning on floating storage, and absorbing a lesson about how the U.S. is willing to mix force, law enforcement, and oil markets. It's not a crisis for Beijing, but it is a signal—and China is responding accordingly.

Diplomatically, we cover China's efforts to widen the frame. Canada reenters the picture with a high-profile visit, Africa remains a steady focus with Wang Yi's tour, and Pakistan gets a fresh round of reassurance as Beijing works to lock in partners before drift becomes distance. This is classic great-power hedging—quiet, persistent, and very intentional.

We also touch on technology controls, including AI scrutiny, chip market uncertainty, and why trust—or the lack of it—is now baked into contracts on both sides of the Pacific. Add in extended naval deployments, internal anti-corruption moves, and a very public crackdown on transnational fraud, and you've got a China that's compensating, adjusting, and making sure no single setback defines the narrative.

If you're trying to understand how China responds when it gets caught flat-footed—not with panic, but with pressure elsewhere—this episode is for you. Welcome to Restricted Handling.

In today's episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we break down one of those 24-hour news cycles where Russia seems to be spinning plates on a unicycle—while the road gets steeper.

We start at sea, where the United States didn't just threaten enforcement against Russia's shadow energy trade—it acted. Two oil tankers linked to Russian and Venezuelan sanctions evasion were seized in coordinated operations across the Atlantic and Caribbean. One of them tried a last-minute identity swap, slapping on a Russian flag mid-chase like it was hoping for diplomatic invisibility. It didn't work. The outcome matters: Russia protested, complained about piracy, demanded crew repatriation… and then stopped. No escalation. No retaliation. That silence tells you a lot about Moscow's current risk tolerance and where Ukraine still ranks in its priority list.

From there, we move straight into the Ukraine peace talks and the growing gap between diplomatic momentum and real security guarantees. The UK and France are publicly committing to post-war troop deployments and deterrence missions, but Ukraine is still asking the same uncomfortable question: who actually shows up if Russia breaks a ceasefire? The United States continues to use carefully flexible language around "monitoring" and "security protocols," and Kyiv is increasingly vocal about the difference between political will and legally binding commitments. Territory, enforcement, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remain unresolved—and those details are doing most of the heavy lifting right now.

On the battlefield, this episode digs into why Russia's military grind is starting to look less like strategy and more like necessity. New data confirms Moscow is falling far short of its force-generation goals, relying on understrength infantry-heavy units and infiltration tactics instead of rebuilt mechanized formations. Casualties remain massive, reserves are being burned to stay afloat, and Ukraine's layered defenses in Donetsk are exacting a brutal price. This isn't a frozen conflict—it's a slow, expensive bleed.

Winter warfare takes center stage as Russia escalates strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, knocking out power, water, and heating across major regions during sub-zero temperatures. Hospitals on generators. Transit systems offline. Air raid sirens failing because there's no electricity to run them. And in response, Ukraine doubles down on a campaign that's becoming impossible to ignore: sustained drone strikes against Russian oil depots, refineries, and defense-linked industrial sites deep inside Russia. This isn't about flashy one-offs—it's about repetition, pressure, and making the cost unavoidable.

We also zoom out to Europe's growing contradiction: tough talk on deterrence, while billions of euros still flow into the Kremlin through Russian LNG imports. The ban is promised. The money is current. Moscow notices.

If you're tracking Russia, Ukraine, sanctions, energy warfare, or great-power brinkmanship, this episode connects the dots with context, clarity, and just enough bite to keep it real.

Step beyond the headlines and official spin to uncover the deeper realities inside Russia and China's economies. We take a close look at how Moscow and Beijing project power abroad while grappling with fragile foundations at home, from Russia's unsustainable wartime spending to China's faltering growth and anxious workforce. We cut through state narratives to reveal the costs of these economies, costs borne not by leaders, but by ordinary citizens facing higher prices and shrinking opportunities. With insights from data, policy shifts, and on-the-ground reports, we trace how these two authoritarian powers strain to maintain control, and how their choices reverberate across global markets, diplomacy, and the lives of millions.