Hi everybody—welcome back to Retail Edge, where we help you track the retail crowd’s conversation and (hopefully) spot the next big move before everyone else. Tom Bruni’s back from the StockTwits offsite with just enough Arizona sun to survive the New York deep freeze… and we’ve got a lot to talk about.
Greenland drama + tariff threats heading into Davos: why the market cares (defense + critical minerals/rare earths) and what happens if Europe decides to play offense
The EU’s anti-coercion instrument: the “services” angle that puts U.S. big tech in the crosshairs (not just physical goods)
Which areas get hit: autos, industrials, agriculture, manufacturing-heavy U.S. brands—and why some European names are getting smoked
Retail reaction: mostly ignoring the noise and buying long-duration themes like space (ASTS, Rocket Lab)
Housing thaw? Redfin shows the slowest home price growth since 2012 and sellers outnumbering buyers—what that means for rates, transactions, and names like Rocket/Zillow/Compass + XHB/ITB
Natural gas spike: tight inventories + exports + the Arctic freeze → volatility explosion (UNG/BOIL/FCG on the radar)
Pros vs Joes: 3M dip-buying as retail pushes back on Wall Street’s consumer caution
PayPal pain: new lows, still-bullish retail sentiment, and the “cheap is cheap for a reason” reality check (Fastlane is the hinge)
Netflix & Spotify trading in lockstep: growth concerns, the “peak subscriber/peak margin” question, and why earnings matter this week
Drop a comment: Are you with retail—buying the stuff that’s not tariff-exposed—or are you treating this as a real risk-off moment?
00:11 Welcome back + Arizona sun vs Arctic freeze banter
01:09 Greenland drama, weekend red, and Davos setup
01:38 Why Greenland matters: defense + critical minerals/rare earths
02:55 Tariff threats + EU response mode
04:09 What the EU “anti-coercion” tool could target (services + big tech)
05:05 Who’s exposed: ag, industrials, autos, U.S. brands with EU footprint
06:10 Retail ignores the noise: long-duration themes (ASTS, Rocket Lab)
06:49 Quick check: Novo Nordisk example (real-world demand vs headlines)
07:12 Housing: Redfin data + buyer/seller dynamic
07:57 Frozen market starts to thaw: rates + price pressure + regional differences
09:06 Real estate watchlist: Rocket/Zillow/Compass + XHB/ITB + HD/LOW
10:19 Natural gas: geopolitics + inventories + polar vortex catalyst
11:44 Retail vehicles: UNG/BOIL/FCG + volatility warning
12:52 Pros vs Joes: 3M (MMM) — why retail is buying the dip
14:58 PayPal (PYPL): retail sentiment vs Wall Street skepticism
16:27 Fastlane bull case + “needs a major retailer” reality check
18:02 Earnings next month: catalyst watch
18:28 Netflix (NFLX) + Spotify (SPOT): lockstep chart + growth concerns
19:33 Netflix/WBD acquisition talk → “utility vs disruptor” debate
21:01 Wrap + where to follow Tom + possible “emergency” episode tease