Want more success investing? Quit trying to make sense of investing.
Intuition usually fails us when it comes to investing. So
why do so many people keep trying to “beat” the market?
The arguments against Intuition
1) Emotion clouds logic and is expensive.
Average 3-year return of the index measured and
referenced after a 3-year negative period= 14.2%. 14.2% average return over
three years would grow $1,000,000 into almost $1,500,000.
Average 3-year return of the index measured and
referenced after the 25 WORST 3-year negative periods= roughly 22%. 22% average
return over three years would grow $1,000,000 into about $1,800,000.
Imagine how expensive it would be to your
retirement plan if you pulled your money out of the market during the bad times
and then missed out on the good times. That could be an $800,000 mistake.
2) We seek reassurance or confirmation bias from
others who agree with us.
“using intuition to assess an investment is a
bit like chasing one’s own tail”- Jeffrey Ptak, CFA writer for Morningstar
3) We fail to consider what the market has already priced
“Markets price in a potential scenario well
before we can act on it.” – Jeffrey Ptak, CFA
“The pattern is unmistakable: Returns impress,
flows follow, only for performance to dramatically fall off, burning investors
who had chased returns into these funds in the first place.” – Jeffrey Ptak,
4) We fool ourselves without knowing it.
“There’s a wealth of research that finds we are
not reliable narrators of our own investing journeys. We have a propensity to
repress painful memories, such as costly mistakes, while we exaggerate whatever
successes we’ve achieved along the way, blowing them out of proportion.” –
Article referenced: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1142320/want-to-invest-successfully-quit-trying-to-make-sense-of-it?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_morningdigest&utm_content=42938
Disclaimer, this content is not legal, tax, or investment advice. You should always consult a qualified professional regarding your personal situation.
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