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On this edition of Parallax Views, Ambassador Patrick Theros offers a seasoned diplomat’s assessment of the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidency. The conversation is anchored in Theros’ recent National Herald column, “Twenty Twenty-Five: What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong, and Why 2026 Looks Worse,” in which he reflects on his expectations for the administration and how rapidly events have outpaced them.

Theros breaks down what he underestimated, what surprised him, and why the speed and scale of developments in Trump’s second term have been so destabilizing. We examine Trump’s foreign and domestic policy record, including ICE and the killing of Alex Pretti, the administration’s contradictory impulses, and whether Trump is actively governing or allowing loyalists and ideological actors to run policy in his absence. Theros argues that Trump’s inability to manage multiple crises simultaneously has produced dangerous incoherence.

The discussion ranges widely across geopolitics and political economy: Gaza and the broader Middle East, Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu, the erosion of U.S. soft power, and how Trump’s National Security Strategy places new risks on Gulf States—raising doubts about an 85-year partnership with the United States. Theros explains why “might makes right” is a recipe for bad statecraft, how hubris historically brings dominant powers down, and why the current moment resembles the end of the liberal, U.S.-led international order.

We also explore Europe as a potential model for the United States, including a detailed discussion of VAT taxation and European-style healthcare, as well as Europe’s response to Trump’s posturing over Greenland. Additional topics include the return of multipolarity and balance-of-power geopolitics, the revival of spheres of influence, the Athenians’ folly as a historical lesson, and why the Russo-Ukraine war is likely to grind on.

Theros weighs in on the potential rise of India as a hemispheric power, Trump’s view of Russia, China’s current geopolitical position, and the isolationist impulses now visible in both Washington and Beijing. We also discuss Trump’s approach to Latin America, the global loss of trust in the United States, and the danger posed by the administration’s attacks on universities and institutional capacity.

The episode concludes with an extended discussion of Theros’ recent essay “Of Whales and Windmills,” examining American industrial policy, shipbuilding, and the myth of U.S. industrial self-sufficiency—along with why Trump cannot restore mid-20th-century industrial dominance by sheer political will. The article takes aim at Trump's "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance" Executive Order.

We also talk about tariffs and other economic policies and the contradictions of Trump's economic policies. We'll also discuss the need to break up the defense industry monopolies and other related issues.

All this, and much more, on the latest edition of Parallax Views.